15,000 Serves Later, We Know The Favourite Spot of Raonic, Other Best Servers

The five biggest servers in our sport have a favourite spot to hit their aces – and it’s not where you think.

Fifteen thousand serves to the corners by the five biggest servers in our game uncover some fascinating insights into how power and direction dominate the start of the point.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first serves out wide and down the T in both the Deuce and Ad courts reveals where aces occur the most from the tall timber, and how likely their towering first serves are to be returned back in play.

The following five players lead the ATP World Tour in Average Aces Per Match for the past 52 weeks and are the focus of this first-serve analysis.

Player Height / Average Aces Per Match Past 52 Weeks
6’11” / Ivo Karlovic 22.6
6’10” / John Isner 19.6
6’4” / Gilles Muller 16.5
6’8” / Kevin Anderson 16.4
6’5” / Milos Raonic 15.0

The overall data set of 15,020 first serves for these five players comes from 2011-2018 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals.

Here are three things we learned from the big five servers:

Deuce Court Wide = No. 1 for Aces
Isner led the way with aces out wide in the Deuce court with 473 to this specific location. Interestingly, it was 108 more than he hit down the T (365) in the Deuce court.

Karlovic and Muller also targeted out wide more than down the T, while Anderson and Raonic went slightly more to the T. We seem to remember bombs right down the centre T a lot more from taller players, but it’s wide in the Deuce court that delivers the most free points.

Ace Location
Deuce Court Wide = 28.8%
Deuce Court T = 26.5%
Ad Court T = 23.5%
Ad Court Wide = 21.2%

2. Deuce Court Wide = No. 1 for Unreturned Serves
The first thing to consider is that this location is directed towards a right-hander’s more potent forehand return, but it also taps into the natural slice motion of a right-handed server. Most returners will be looking/leaning towards a serve down the T to their backhand, so the surprise factor out wide also contributes to the return being missed.

Most Unreturned Serves (not including aces)
Deuce Court Wide = 29.0%
Deuce Court T = 25.7%
Ad Court Wide = 24.1%
Ad Court T = 21.2%

3. Ad Court Wide = Most Returned Serves
Players at all levels of the game target the wide serve in the Ad court as a way to get free points from the first serve. The theory is solid as you are pulling a right-handed opponent off the court and stretching him to hit a backhand return. But the analysis shows that more first serves are returned back into play from this position than anywhere else.

Most Returned Serves
Ad Court Wide = 48.2%
Ad Court T = 47.3%
Deuce Court T = 44.8%
Deuce Court Wide = 43.6%

Muller, the only lefty in the group, had 49 per cent of his first serves unreturned from this typical lefty location. But he actually had fewer returned (44 per cent) when he served down the T in the Ad court.

Holding serve is definitely about power and hitting spots, but it’s also about getting inside your opponent’s head and figuring out where they think you’re going and switching it up.