Murray And Dimitrov Bring It In Beijing 2016 QFs
Murray And Dimitrov Bring It In Beijing 2016 QFs
Oct072016
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers examines how the best players find ways to win a crucial amount of points
The Top 100 players in the world average losing more points than they win.
It seems counterintuitive that the best in our sport are not more successful, but the reality of tennis is that you can win a match even by winning fewer points than your opponent. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 100 players in the world from the 2015 season reveals just how close the margins are at the elite level of our game.
The data set of 670,005 points delivers a fresh perspective on what it takes to “make it” on tour and reach the promised land of the Top 100. All points are not created equal, with some meaning a lot more to the outcome of a match than others. Winning the right points is more important to a player’s career than winning more points.
In the 2015 season, Novak Djokovic finished No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings. He went 82-6 and won 11 titles, including seven ATP World Tour Masters 1000s and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. It was a sublime season, and Djokovic won 55.8 per cent of his points.
It’s sobering to contemplate that if the best player in the world, putting together one of the best seasons of all time, can only tip the scales from 50-50 to 56-44. It therefore stands to reason how close the margins really are for all who follow in his footsteps.
Cutting up the Top 100 into groups of 10 delivers a clear perspective of where the dividing line is for players to win more points than they lose. Players in the ranking groups of 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 and 31-40 all win more points than they lose. Players in the six remaining groups in the Top 100 all lose more points than they win.
Top 100: Groups of 10 Average Points Won Percentage
| Ranking Spots | Average Points Won Percentage | Percentage-Point Drop From Higher-Ranked Group |
| 1-10 | 53.3% | – |
| 11-20 | 51.1% | 2.3 |
| 21-30 | 51% | .1 |
| 31-40 | 50.6% | .4 |
| 41-50 | 49.7% | .9 |
| 51-60 | 49.6% | .1 |
| 61-70 | 48.9% | .7 |
| 71-80 | 48.9% | 0 |
| 81-90 | 48.5% | .4 |
| 91-100 | 47.8% | .7 |
| Top 100 Average | 49.9% | – |
| Top 50 Average | 51.1% | – |
| Bottom 50 Average | 48.7% | – |
The analysis also uncovers just how hard it is to break into the Top 10, as players in that group win more than 53 per cent of their points, compared to about 51 per cent for players in the next group, 11-20. It is also interesting to note that the percentage-point gap is extremely small between 11-20 and 21-30.
The Top 50 win 51.1 per cent of their points, while the bottom 50 are at 48.7 per cent – a 2.4 percentage point drop, which is almost identical to the difference between the Top 10 and 11-20.
Tennis is a game of small margins played over great distances. A break point won in Shanghai or Stockholm can mean a lot more than a 15/0 point lost in Sydney or St. Petersburg.
Bulgarian scores upset win in China Open quarter-finals
Grigor Dimitrov broke his losing streak against second seed Rafael Nadal in their quarter-final on Friday at the China Open, scoring his first victory against the Spaniard in eight tries with an impressive 6-2 6-4 performance.
“I’m pretty happy with that win. I’m not going to lie. I’ve played Rafa quite a few times. So many times I was close or a couple times I was cramping. There was just always something happening,” said Dimitrov. “Today, I just played an excellent match. Simple as that. There’s not much else to say except that I’m proud. A lot of the work is paying off.”
The victory gives the Bulgarian has third Top 10 win of 2016, having already defeated Andy Murray at the Miami Open and Stan Wawrinka at the Western & Southern Open. Dimitrov is looking to reach his third final of the year, with previous runner-up showings at the Apia International Sydney and the TEB BNP Paribas Istanbul Open.
“If I want to get to the top, meaning not just to enter the Top 10 (of the Emirates ATP Rankings), but to aim even higher and possibly be No. 1, that means that I need to play against these players pretty much every single week and beat them on a regular basis,” said Dimitrov. “I just want to stay on track and focus on whatever is in front of me.”
Nadal said he was unhappy with his performance, but hoped to regroup next week for the Shanghai Rolex Masters.
“It’s obvious that Grigor played much better than me and he deserved to win. Losing five serve games is something you can’t do to win a match like this,” said Nadal. “I fought until the last ball, but was going against psychologically bad feelings because I was suffering with my serve. When that happens, you have to go to the next tournament because you don’t deserve to win like this.”
Watch Dimitrov Interview
The match started with a surprising five consecutive breaks of serve as both players struggled to find their range. Dimitrov earned the first hold of the match to lead 4-2, but Nadal was unable to follow suit and was broken in the next game. Dimitrov comfortably closed out the set on serve at 5-2 to take a commanding lead.
When Dimitrov broke Nadal for a fifth straight time to open the second set, it appeared he would sprint into the semi-finals. But the Spaniard showed his trademark fighting spirit, saving two break points at 1-3 and another two at 2-4 to keep himself in the match. Dimitrov managed to remain calm, saving two break points at 4-3 and eventually holding serve to wrap up the match.
Next up for Dimitrov is third seed Milos Raonic, a 6-4 6-4 winner over Pablo Carreno Busta. Dimitrov leads their FedEx ATP Head2Head 2-1 and has won their past two meetings, but they haven’t played since the 2014 Australian Open.
World number two Andy Murray overcame fellow Briton Kyle Edmund 7-6 (11-9) 6-2 to make the China Open semi-finals.
Murray, 29, came through an even first set via a tie-break, but found himself a break down early in the second.
But Edmund, who will rise into the top 50 after beating Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut to make the least eight, then lost three straight service games to allow his compatriot through.
Murray will face Spain’s David Ferrer in the last four.
It was a heartening performance from Edmund, who hung tough with Murray in the first set despite failing to win a single point off the Scot’s first serve.
The 21-year-old Yorkshireman, who was ranked outside the top 100 in February, was edged out in the tie-break and then ran out of steam after a promising start to the second.
Murray has lost just once in 11 Tour level meetings with other Britons, going down in straight sets to Tim Henman in Bangkok in September 2006. He beat Edmund at the Aegon Championships quarter-finals at Queen’s earlier this year in their only previous meeting.
The other semi-final will see Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov play Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic of Canada.
Dimitrov ended the challenge of Spanish second seed Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals with a 6-2 6-4 victory.
It is the first time Dimitrov has beaten the 14-time Grand Slam champion and he is aiming to reach his third final of the year.
Raonic advanced after a 6-4 6-4 win over Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta.