Juan Martin del Potro defeated World No. 1 Roger Federer at Indian Wells on Sunday, saving three match points to claim his maiden ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title. And now, as the ATP World Tour travels to Florida for the Miami Open presented by Itau, the tennis world might be in for a treat: a rematch, just two weeks later.

Federer and Del Potro were drawn into opposite halves of the draw at the second Masters 1000 event of the season, and while recent form indicates that we may very well see both players across the net from one another again, one of them has a far more straightforward draw than the other.

World No. 1 Federer, who must advance to at least the quarter-finals to maintain his spot atop the ATP Rankings, has lost a total of two matches against the highest-ranked player he could face in each round en route to the final. And while he did lose a golden opportunity to retain his title in the Coachella Valley, don’t forget that Federer, a three-time champion in Miami, began his season 17-0 prior to that loss, a personal best for the 36-year-old.

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The Swiss will open against a qualifier, before potentially facing an always-dangerous Fernando Verdasco in the third round (Federer leads FedEx ATP Head2Head 6-0). And despite the lopsided results, the pair has played just once since the 2012 US Open, and the Spaniard showed good form by defeating reigning Nitto ATP Finals champion Grigor Dimitrov at Indian Wells.

Federer has won all five of his FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings against potential fourth-round and quarter-final opponents, No. 16 Pablo Carreno Busta (1-0) and No. 6 Kevin Anderson (4-0). But there are some other dangerous opponents lurking in the quarter-finals, including No. 10 Tomas Berdych, Australian Open semi-finalist Kyle Edmund and big-hitting Marseille champion Karen Khachanov. Fourth seed Alexander Zverev, who defeated Federer to win the Rogers Cup last year, is the second-highest seed in the Swiss’ half of the draw.

Del Potro, who is fresh off back-to-back titles for the first time since 2012 Vienna and Basel, will have to blast forehands through a minefield of opponents virtually every step of the way as he attempts to back up his Indian Wells/Acapulco trophies and achieve his best result yet in Miami, where he has only advanced past the Round of 16 once in nine attempts (2009 SF, l. to Murray).

Past Five Miami Open presented by Itau Champions

The ‘Tower of Tandil’, who will guarantee himself a return to the Top 5 for the first time since February 2014 should he complete the ‘Sunshine Double’, will open his campaign against Yuichi Sugita (leads 2-0) or Robin Haase (leads 4-0), who are both inside the Top 50 of the ATP Rankings at No. 43 and No. 44, respectively. But former World No. 4 and 2016 Miami finalist Kei Nishikori looms as a possible third-round opponent with six-time Miami titlist Novak Djokovic possibly awaiting the winner in the Round of 16. While the Serbian did not play the event last season, he has won it in his past three appearances and on five of his past six showings, winning 30 of his past 31 matches at the tournament. 

And if that was not a dangerous enough path already, Del Potro — should he get through that section — could play the likes of Dimitrov or Indian Wells semi-finalist Milos Raonic in the quarter-finals, with the red-hot No. 13 seed Diego Schwartzman, who claimed his first ATP World Tour 500-level trophy in Rio de Janeiro, projected to play the Canadian in the third round.

Don’t forget about No. 29 seed Borna Coric, either. The Croatian played the tournament of his life at the BNP Paribas Open, leading Federer by a set and 4-2 in the semi-finals, and also by a break on two occasions in the third set, before succumbing against the top seed. He could potentially play No. 8 Jack Sock in the third round.

And it’s impossible to ignore second seed Marin Cilic, also in the bottom half, who has made the final at two of the past three Grand Slams. The Croatian, who was upset in the third round at Indian Wells by Philipp Kohlschreiber, will not be able to play his way into the draw in Miami. He will face one of two players who made the Round of 16 in California: #NextGenATP American Taylor Fritz or Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

Seventh seed David Goffin, who assisted at Monday’s draw ceremony, could meet Cilic in the quarter-finals of his first Masters 1000 tournament of 2018.

But Federer (17-1) and Del Potro (17-3), who are both tied with Dominic Thiem (17-4) for the most wins on the ATP World Tour thus far in 2017, have to be considered the favourites on their respective halves based on recent form. And after they brought the BNP Paribas Open to an epic close, there is a lot to be excited about at the second Masters 1000 event of the year.

No. 6 Juan Martin del Potro, +2
The Argentinean continues his rise up the ATP Rankings with his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown at the BNP Paribas Open. The 29-year-old saved three match points to beat Roger Federer in a thrilling Indian Wells final and moved up two spots to No. 6, his highest position since 24 February 2014 (No. 5). He also passed 400 match wins with victory over Milos Raonic in the semi-finals. Read & Watch Final Highlights

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The former World No. 4 is also in good shape for a place at the Nitto ATP Finals, to be held at The O2 in London from 11-18 November 2018, for the first time since 2013. Del Potro has a 17-3 match record this year, including two titles from finals (22 tour-level trophies overall), and is No. 2 in the year-to-date ATP Race To London behind Federer. Del Potro has made four appearances at the season finale (7-8 record), highlighted by a run to the 2009 title match (l. to Davydenko).

No. 10 (Career High) Lucas Pouille, +2
The Frenchman has broken into the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings for the first time at No. 10 after a strong start to 2018 that includes a 1-2 record in finals. Pouille came within one victory of the Top 10 at the recent Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, but lost to Roberto Bautista Agut in the title match.

No. 14 Sam Querrey, +7
The 30-year-old American jumped six positions to No. 14 in the ATP Rankings, three places off his career-high of No. 11 (26 February 2018), after reaching the BNP Paribas Open quarter-finals (l. to Raonic). Querrey has an 0-4 record in ATP World Tour Masters 1000 quarter-finals. Read: Querrey – My Masters 1000

No. 25 Milos Raonic, +13
The Canadian and former World No. 3, who continues to recover from a series of injury, moved up 13 places to No. 25 after advancing to his third semi-final (or better) in four years at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Raonic, who on 26 February this year was ranked No. 40, reached the 2016 final (l. to Djokovic).

No. 36 Borna Coric, +13
With a new team and renewed focus, the 21-year-old Croatian beat No. 9-ranked Kevin Anderson en route to the Indian Wells semi-finals, his first at Masters 1000-level, where he lost to Roger Federer in three sets. Coric, now 11-4 on the year, moved up 13 positions to No. 36 – three places off his career-high of No. 33 on 27 July 2015.

Other Notable Top 100 Movers This Week
No. 23 (Career High) Hyeon Chung, +3
No. 31 Philipp Kohlschreiber, +6
No. 52 Daniil Medvedev, +5
No. 60 (Career High) Marton Fucsovics, +5
No. 75 Mirza Basic, +7
No. 81 Pierre-Hugues Herbert, +12
No. 82 Marcos Baghdatis, +20
No. 83 Mikhail Kukushkin, +6
No. 87 Nicolas Kicker, +7
No. 90 Jeremy Chardy, +10
No. 92 Dudi Sela, +5
No. 95 (Career High) Matteo Berrettini, +13
No. 97 Marco Cecchinato, +10

The paradox of tennis is that our minds quickly dismiss the short points, but they are by far the most influential to the final outcome.

Juan Martin Del Potro defeated Roger Federer 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(2) to win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Sunday by forging his winning advantage in the abundant short rallies in the match. He won the short, lost the long, and emerged the victor, saving three match points along the way.

Fans all over the world that tuned in to watch this instant classic will no doubt enjoy discussing the extended, bruising baseline exchanges from these two heavy hitters. But the reality of this battle, lasting two hours and 42 minutes, was that only seven per cent (16 points) of rallies reached double digits – and Del Potro actually lost that battle.

Rally Length – Points Won

0-4 Shots (65% total points)
Del Potro = 80 won
Federer = 67 won

5-9 Shots (28% total points)
Del Potro = 34 won
Federer = 28 won

10+ Shots (7% total points)
Del Potro = 6 won
Federer = 10 won

Just 10 per cent of Del Potro’s total points through six matches reached double digits in rally length. Our eyes certainly don’t pick up that 90 per cent of all his points had either Del Potro or his opponent hitting a maximum of just five consecutive shots in the court.

Del Potro – Six Match Total
0-4 Shots = 539 points (59%)
5-9 Shots = 282 points (31%)
10+ Shots = 89 points (10%)

In the final against Federer, Del Potro crafted a 13-point advantage in the 0-4 rally length, and a six-point advantage in the mid-length rallies of 5-9 shots. The Argentinian actually lost the long rallies six to 10, but with so few of them played, it didn’t hurt to lose that category.

Overall for the tournament, Del Potro’s winning margin (points won minus points lost) was the most abundant in the ‘first strike’ rally length of 0-4 shots.

Del Potro – Six Match Total
0-4 Shots = 292 won / 247 lost. Margin = +45 points
5-9 Shots = 152 won / 130 lost. Margin = +22 points
10+ Shots = 51 won / 38 lost. Margin = +13 points

The Final Stanza: Federer Serving Third Set 5-4, 40/15
The match looked to be all but over with Federer serving at 5-4, 40/15 in the final set. It seemed imminent that there would be just one more point to be played, but instead, there would be another 26, and it would be Del Potro that would win 65 per cent (17/26) of them.

From 5-4, 40/15 in the third set, Federer only made 31 per cent (5/16) of his first serves and would hit two double faults in the tie-break. He also went for two backhand drop shots serving at 5-4. which uncharacteristically felt like a reach for the finish line.

From 5-4, 40/15, Federer’s forehand also went awry. He committed six forehand errors, including one return, while contributing just one forehand return winner. While Federer struggled mightily to find the court with the match on the line, Del Potro was finding another level. The Argentinian hit three forehand winners and three backhand winners (including one return), while committing just six total groundstroke and return errors to Federer’s nine.

Winning doesn’t happen evenly all over the court as much we think. Win the battle of the abundant short points, and the much smaller pool of longer points can quite often be a loss and not be detrimental to the final outcome.