Finish to A.

Rafael Nadal pounded 126 forehand groundstroke winners from around the baseline over the past two weeks in Paris to win an unprecedented 11th Roland Garros title on Sunday. No piece of real estate mattered more to him than Position A.

Nadal defeated Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in Sunday’s final, hitting 14 forehand winners from the back of the court, with nine (64 per cent) of them powering through his favourite forehand finishing location of A.

Tennis is a very much a C to C sport when rallying. Typically, two right-handed players trade blows through the Ad court at each other’s backhands, but don’t rally wide to D because there is too much risk with the singles sideline in play.

For Nadal, C is the perfect place to set up the point. Position A is where he drops the hammer.

A study of Nadal’s forehand winners from seven matches at Roland Garros this year reveals the key patterns of play that formed the foundation of the Spaniard’s run to the title – and undoubtedly heavily contributed to his preceding 10 titles in Paris.

Nadal’s forehand has never been studied in such detail, with the following four elements revealing the inner workings of the biggest baseline weapon in the modern game.

1. Winners Go To A
Being left-handed, we naturally fixate on Nadal dominating through the Ad court to C and D against right-handed opponent’s backhands. That’s just where he sets the point up. Those are the body blows.

Nadal played five right-handed and two left-handed opponents at Roland Garros the past two weeks, and his game plan remained basically the same against them all: run around his own backhand in the Deuce court and finish out wide to A.

Location of Nadal’s Forehand Winners
Position A = 66% (83)

Position B = 2% (2)

Position C = 1% (1)

Position D = 32% (40)

2. Forehand Winners Are Struck From B & D
Nadal loves to run around his backhand and hit forehand winners standing in B, as well as go big from out wide in the Ad court from D.

Nadal Forehand Winners – Position Hit From
Position A = 20% (25)

Position B = 33% (41)

Position C = 14% (18)

Position D = 33% (42)

When Nadal was standing in B hitting a forehand winner, 68 per cent (27/40) were run-around forehand winners hit inside-out to Position A. This was a huge part of his run to his 11th Paris title. Just 32 per cent (13/40) were hit inside-in from B down the line to D. The modern forehand is all about inside-out.

When Nadal was standing in D, he hit a remarkable 80 per cent (33/41) of his forehand winners right down the line to Position A. Opponents typically want to cover the crosscourt, sitting on Nadal’s heavy, lefty forehand to their backhand. That’s exactly the finishing trap that the Spaniard looks to exploit.

3. Forehand Winners Happen More When Serving
We have never really made the connection between hitting forehands and hitting serves, but the two lived in perfect harmony for Nadal at Roland Garros. Right at two out of three of his forehand winners came when he was serving.

Forehand Winners
When Serving = 65% (82)

When Receiving = 35% (44)

4. The Run-Around Forehand Dominates
With Nadal being left-handed, the natural place for him to make contact with forehands is standing in the Ad court. Not so for forehand winners. Nadal’s run-around forehands standing in the Deuce court produced more winners at Roland Garros than his forehands from the Ad court.

Winners: Location Contact Hit From
Deuce Court = 52% (66) – Run Around forehands.

Ad Court = 48% (60) – Normal forehands.

Overall, Nadal hit 126 groundstroke forehand winners and committed 166 errors. That means if the last shot of the rally was a forehand groundstroke, 43 per cent of the of the time it was a winner, and 57 per cent of the time it was an error.

On the surface that does not seem impressive, but take into account that errors made up 66 per cent of total points at Roland Garros this year, and those 43 per cent of errors are viewed in an upgraded light.

Forehands to A took another major title in Paris on Sunday.

With everything to play for, Rafael Nadal saved arguably his best performance for last. The World No. 1 exhibited yet another ruthless display of aggression to emerge with the Roland Garros title on Sunday.

Nadal defeated Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in two hours and 42 minutes to seize the Coupe des Mousquetaires for an unprecedented 11th time. The Spaniard saves his top level for championship occasions like these, and Sunday’s affair on Court Philippe Chatrier was no exception.

It is unfathomable. Eleven titles at a single Grand Slam tournament. ‘La Undécima’ lifts Nadal to truly historic territory. No other man or woman has achieved the feat in the Open Era.

At the age of 32, Nadal continues to strengthen his legacy on his most dominant surface. Less than two months after lifting an 11th trophy at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters and following that up with another ‘Undécima’ at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, the Spaniard completed the set with his victory on Sunday at Roland Garros. Moreover, Nadal remains atop the ATP Rankings for a 177th week.

With the victory, the Manacor native adds a 17th Grand Slam crown, which draws him to within three of Roger Federer’s all-time record of 20. Furthermore, Nadal became just the fourth man in the Open Era to win three or more major titles after turning 30. It is an exclusive club that also includes Federer, Rod Laver and Ken Rosewall. 

Grand Slam Title Leaders

For the second straight year, Nadal leaves the European clay-court season with a staggering 24-1 mark. His only blemish was a quarter-final defeat to Thiem in his home capital of Madrid. But the Austrian was unable to find the formula to upset his Spanish opponent twice in one campaign.

Thiem made it a tight encounter early in the opener, with the first set lasting 67 minutes. The Austrian broke back after Nadal seized an immediate break for 2-0, but was unable to sustain the same level of energy and pressure on the Spaniard throughout the match. 

Two breaks in the second set proved critical and Nadal would roll from there, claiming the decisive break for 2-1 in the third after escaping a 0/40 deficit in the opening game. He secured his 11th Coupe des Mousquetaires trophy after two hours and 42 minutes, firing a service winner on his fifth match point.

Nadal won 82 per cent of points on his first serve while claiming nearly half of total return points (47 per cent). Thiem did well to strike 34 winners (to Nadal’s 26), but was victimised by 42 unforced errors.

The World No. 1 extended his FedEx ATP Head2Head series lead to 7-3, with all of their meetings coming on clay. One year after relinquishing just seven games in their semi-final encounter, Nadal replicated the feat. He is now 2-1 against Thiem this year, with his other victory coming in the Monte-Carlo quarter-finals.

Most Titles At A Single Tournament (Open Era)

Nadal’s 57th clay-court title caps a remarkable turnaround for the Spaniard. Just three months ago, he was forced to withdraw from ATP World Tour stops in Acapulco, Indian Wells and Miami due to a right hip injury. And now, he leaves the clay-court season with the loss of just five sets in 25 matches.

Moreover, Nadal claimed a tour-leading fourth title of 2018 and joins Thiem and Alexander Zverev as 30-match winners this year. Thiem, who remains on top of the match wins leaderboard with a 35-9 win-loss mark, will celebrate a strong fortnight in Paris. The 24-year-old advanced to his first Grand Slam final with impressive victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Kei Nishikori, Alexander Zverev and Marco Cecchinato. 

“I think it was the first time against him here in Roland Garros where it was a fight,” said Thiem. “It was a decent match from my side. He was playing very well, I think, and there is a reason why he won 11 times here. It’s definitely one of the best things somebody ever achieved in sport.

“For sure I’m confident that this was not my last Grand Slam final, and that’s my biggest goal, to get into the next one and then to do it better than today.”

Thiem moves up one spot in the ATP Rankings, rising to No. 7 on Monday. Contesting his 17th tour-level final, he falls to 10-7 in title matches and 2-2 this year. He previously lifted the trophy in Buenos Aires and Lyon two weeks ago. His 10-match win streak entering the final equals the longest of his career.

“Of course it was a special thing for me to play the first slam final,” added Thiem. “But on the other hand, I was pretty calm and I knew that I go into it like it would be any other match. I think this was the right approach because if I let too much happen, my emotions, everything, because it’s the first Grand Slam final, it wouldn’t suit my game very well, and that’s why I went into it like every other match.”

2018 Match Wins Leaders

There is plenty that has been impressive about Rafael Nadal’s success at Roland Garros — the Spaniard has triumphed 10 times and won 85 of 87 matches, for starters. But the statistics show that the task that first-time Grand Slam finalist Dominic Thiem faces on Sunday is even more daunting than you might think.

Nadal has never lost after the quarter-finals on the Parisian terre battue, holding a 21-0 record in semi-finals and finals en route to his 10 trophies, which is the most captured by any man at a single major.

Most Singles Titles Won At A Single Major (All-Time, Men)

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But perhaps it is the left-hander’s performance in championship matches that is most striking. The World No. 1 has won 50 per cent of his sets in Roland Garros finals by a margin of 6-3 or greater. And what is most stunning about that is that his opponents’ average ATP Ranking has been 6.1. If you eliminate Mariano Puerta, who was World No. 37 when he lost to Nadal in the 2005 final, that average would drop to 2.7. So not only is he dominating with the Coupe des Mousquetaires on the line, but he is thumping the world’s best in the process.

Nadal’s Roland Garros Final Sets By Score 

In those matches, Nadal has won 61.2 per cent (207-131) of games played. And in three of the finals (2008 vs Federer, 2013 vs Ferrer and 2017 vs Wawrinka), all against Top 5 players in the ATP Rankings, the Spaniard did not let slip one set past 6-3. 

Fun Facts: Nadal In Roland Garros Finals

And the best-of-five-set element adds another hurdle for Thiem. Nadal is 110-2 (98.2%) in clay-court five setters, with his only losses coming in the Round of 16 at Roland Garros in 2009 against Robin Soderling and in the 2015 quarter-finals against Novak Djokovic. And while the World No. 1 has been oustanding in best-of-three matches on the surface, winning 87.5 per cent (364-52) of the time, he has proven to be even greater of a challenge for opponents in the longer format.

Comparing Nadal’s Record In Best-of-Three & Best-of-Five Set Matches

Nadal has greatly contributed to the dominance of the ‘Big Five’ (Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Murray & Wawrinka), starting with his first Roland Garros triumph in 2005. Since then, those five players have accounted for 50 of the past 52 Grand Slam titles. During the current stretch, Nadal has won 16 titles, Federer has captured 16, Djokovic has lifted 12 trophies, while Murray and Wawrinka have earned three apiece. The two other players to win a Grand Slam title during the span are Juan Martin del Potro (2009 US Open) and Marin Cilic (2014 US Open).  

All-Time Grand Slam Titles Leaders

If Thiem is to join that group, he will add his name to elite company in more ways than one. The Austrian can become just the 11th player in the Open Era to defeat the top two seeds at a Grand Slam, with the last being Wawrinka when he won the title two years ago. The Swiss, who also did it at the 2014 Australian Open, is the only player to accomplish the feat in the past 25 years, dating back to 1993 Roland Garros (Sergi Bruguera). Thiem beat Alexander Zverev, the second seed, in the quarter-finals. 

Past Five Players To Beat Top 2 Seeds At A Grand Slam (Open Era)

Thiem is also attempting to make Austrian history, as he can become just the second player — man or woman — from the country to capture a major title. The 24-year-old (18-4) already has the second-most wins at Roland Garros among players from the nation, trailing just 1995 champion Thomas Muster (32-13).

Most Wins By An Austrian Man At Roland Garros (All-Time)

Clay has clearly been Thiem’s best surface, as he has earned 109 of his 206 tour-level victories and eight of his 10 titles on the beaten earth. Thiem also leads the ATP World Tour this season with 26 victories (26-6) on the red dirt, with Nadal right behind (25-1). If the right-hander pulls off the upset Sunday, he will join Ivan Lendl as the only men to claim Grand Slam titles on their 18th major appearances. He can also become the youngest Grand Slam champion since Novak Djokovic (24 years, 252 days) won the 2012 Australian Open.

2018 ATP World Tour Clay-Court Win Leaders

But, as history dictates, defeating Nadal in a Roland Garros final is one of the most challenging tests in sports.

It is no surprise that beating Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros is one of the most challenging tasks in tennis. Robin Soderling was the first person to defeat the Spaniard at the clay-court Grand Slam in the Round of 16 nine years ago, after Nadal triumphed in his first four appearances.

Soderling, whose career was cut short by mononucleosis, returned to Roland Garros this year for the first time since 2011, when he last competed on the terre battue. And the 33-year-old, who reached back-to-back finals at the event in 2009 and 2010, revealed his secret to beating Nadal.

“I think to beat him on clay [is challenging]. But to beat him in five sets on clay is even more difficult,” Soderling said. “It has to be a player that plays extremely well. And I think to beat him on clay, I would say the only chance for any player now is to be really aggressive.”

Nadal has lost just one set this fortnight, the first set of his quarter-final against Diego Schwartzman in which the Argentine hit 20 winners. Soderling noticed that the No. 11 seed’s strategy paid dividends.

“I was watching Schwartzman… he played extremely aggressive in the first set,” Soderling said. “It’s an extremely difficult task to do. You have to take a lot of risks. So of course, he [Nadal] is the favourite.”

And while Soderling is plenty familiar with Nadal’s level — the Spaniard won six of their eight FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings — there is one thing in particular that sticks out to the former No. 4 player in the ATP Rankings.

“I don’t think we’re ever going to see that again. Well, at least not in my lifetime,” Soderling said. “It’s unbelievable. It says so much about him. And what I’m really impressed [with] is that, even though he won it 10 times, he’s here to win 11 times. He looks almost as hungry or even hungrier than when he won it the first time. He didn’t lose any motivation at all. It’s amazing to see.”

While Soderling provided the advice he would have given Schwartzman after his match was suspended overnight due to rain, it applies in general for how the Swede suspects any player, including Thiem in the final, should attempt to play against Nadal.

“Really take some risk and don’t care if he makes a little bit more unforced errors than usual. And also, I think it’s important that he shows himself and that he shows Rafa and everyone that he’s on the court to win,” Soderling said. “Many, many players, even good players, top players… you can almost see that they don’t really believe 100 per cent that they can win. They hope that they will win, but they don’t really believe in it… I think it’s really important that you show everyone that you are on the court to win.”

Soderling, one of just two players (Novak Djokovic, 2015) who has beaten Nadal in a best-of-five-set match on clay (110-2), thinks that Nadal is just as good now as he has ever been. And, barring a setback, he could see more Coupes de Mousquetaires in Nadal’s future.

“I think he actually improved his backhand a little bit. I’m really impressed about the way he plays his backhand now. Even when players put a lot of pace on his backhand, he’s defending really well,” Soderling said. “Maybe he’s not moving as good as he did maybe five, six, 10 years ago. But it’s very small difference. I would say he’s probably as good now as before, and it’s just amazing… if he can stay injury-free, there is nothing that says that he can’t win this two, three, four times more. It’s unbelievable.”