Roger Federer has long been the most dominant tie-break competitor on the ATP World Tour. No other player in the history of tennis has won a higher rate of tie-breaks (65.1 per cent) or a greater number of tie-breaks (432), according to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone.

But it takes a little bit of digging to learn just how impressive that is. For instance, this year’s Wimbledon and US Open champion, Novak Djokovic, ranks second among active players by winning 63.3 per cent of tie-breaks in his career. To pass Federer, the Serbian would need to win his next 19 tie-breaks without losing one, and have Federer stand still on the leaderboard. Not so easy. 

Best Career Tie-break Win-Rates All-Time

Federer’s dominance in tie-breaks also extends to championship matches, where the level of competition is the toughest.

“The tie-breaks are huge, especially in big-time moments like Grand Slam finals or finals in general,” Federer said at the US Open. “That’s where you really, really want to win the breakers.”

In finals at Grand Slams, ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals, Federer has won 40 of 65 tie-breaks, a 61.5 per cent win rate. Only 10 players other than Federer have been that successful in championship match tie-breaks at all tour-level events, forget while having a ‘Big Title’ on the line.

He has been especially effective in Grand Slam finals, triumphing in a jaw-dropping 70 per cent of his tie-breaks in those moments. Federer thought deeply in Flushing Meadows about what it takes to thrive at 6-6 in a set.

“If you have a good serve, that’s always helpful,” Federer said. “You want to play patiently aggressive, I would think. You don’t want to go for broke, don’t want to do crazy things. But it does sometimes pay off as well. You have to balance it right.”

The two active players directly behind Federer in number of tie-breaks won are arguably two of the biggest servers of all time in John Isner (387-244, 61.3%) and Ivo Karlovic (377-378, 49.9%).

Most Career Tie-break Wins All-Time

Those are the only two players in history whose tie-break victory total comes within 100 of Federer’s. And while Federer has split eight tie-breaks in his FedEx ATP Head2Head series with Isner, the 37-year-old Swiss has won 15 of 18 against Karlovic. Part of his success at a set’s end has come from his mindset heading into the finale.

“I think it really depends on how the set has gone. Do you play better as the set goes forward? Or, sometimes, you also have the feeling that you go in a breaker and you’re just like, ‘It’s just not happening, I’m not feeling the serve, the return’s not happening, the play is going his way,’” Federer said. “I think when you go in with a negative mindset into a breaker, very often you also either start poorly and then you lose it anyway, or you actually start well, and you’re like, ‘I probably shouldn’t be in the lead’, and then you end up losing it. So I think a very positive mindset is good.”

Now, you might ask, didn’t Federer lose two tie-breaks en route to a fourth-round defeat against John Millman at the US Open? Yes, but that appears to be an exception, not a norm. In fact, Federer has lost two set tie-breaks in the same match just 23 times in his career. However, the Swiss has earned two or more tie-break victories in the same match 53 times.

So while it doesn’t always work out for the World No. 2 in every tie-break, it’s safe to assign ‘The Swiss Maestro’ an additional nickname: ‘The Tie-break Titan’.

Is tennis really a race to 40?

Consider the following metrics at the elite level of our sport. If a Top 10 player is the first to reach the point score of 40 when serving or receiving – no matter how many points the opponent has – they are on average favoured to win the game.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the start of the 2015 season to this week identifies that being first to 40 is almost a lock to hold when serving, and makes the returner a statistical favourite when returning.

The only exception to that rule was John Isner and Kevin Anderson returning with the point score at 30/40. For all other Top 10 players, they were the favourite when returning if they got to 40 first whether serving or receiving.

Current Top 10: Percentage Chance of Winning The Game Being First to 40
(Leader in each point score in Bold)

^{*Top 10 player is returning}

What’s fascinating is that Juan Martin del Potro was the peak performer (tied with Marin Cilic) holding serve at 40/0, at 99.8 per cent, and was also the leader breaking serve from 0/40 when returning, at 87.6 per cent.

John Isner led the Top 10 holding from 40/15 (98.1 per cent) and 40/30 (93.7 per cent), while Rafael Nadal led the way breaking from 15/40 (81 per cent) and 30/40 (66.6 per cent).

Read More: How Quickly Federer, The Top 10 Race Through Their Service Games

The data also presents an interesting proposition to consider…

You play a practice set where you always start at 40/30 on your own service games, and your opponent must always start serving in a 0/40 hole in their service games. Statistically, which one is better for you?

It turns out that serving at 40/30 for the Top 10 is far superior, as they average holding 93.7 per cent of the time, while breaking 78.1 per cent of the time when returning at 0/40.

Getting to the point score of 40 gets you to within one point of winning the game. Now we have some percentages at the elite level of our sport to know exactly how close they really are to taking the next step and winning it.

Bob Bryan and Mike Bryan were close to becoming the world’s best team once again in May, but Bob Bryan’s hip was causing him too much pain to ignore. With 116 tour-level team titles – including 16 majors and 38 ATP World Tour Masters 1000s – in tandem with his brother, Mike Bryan, one half of the most successful team in history had no other option but to look for another doubles partner.

Sam Querrey came on board for Roland Garros, Mike’s eighth different doubles partner – also David Rikl, Michael Hill, Mark Knowles, Mahesh Bhupathi, Mardy Fish and Steve Johnson – other than a blood relative since 2002.

Could Mike add to the two ATP World Tour crowns in 2002 without his sibling – at Nottingham (w/Knowles) and Long Island (w/Bhupathi)? It wasn’t to be, as Mike and Querrey made a first-round exit in Paris (l. to the Skupski brothers). Mike also played with Frances Tiafoe (Atlanta) and Edouard Roger-Vasselin (Washington, D.C.), but at the Fever-Tree Championships in London he found a connection with Jack Sock, who can rip apart any team’s defence with his laser-like power forehand.

Sock, 25, had already won three other titles in 2018 with as many partners – the Delray Beach Open in February (w/Jackson Withrow), the BNP Paribas Open in March (w/John Isner, beating the Bryans in the final) and the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Lyon (w/Nick Kyrgios).

Now, five tournaments into their partnership, and with Bob Bryan still recovering from hip surgery that he underwent on 2 August, Mike Bryan and Sock have captured two Grand Slam championships – Wimbledon (d. Klaasen/Venus) and the US Open (d. Kubot/Melo). Together, they have a 14-2 match record.

“I think Bob is maybe the frontrunner if he gets healthy,” said Mike Bryan in New York, joking about picking between his brother and Sock once Bob gets healthy. “I think he is looking forward to coming back. He’s seeing our good results, and he sees how much I love being out here still at 40. He’s itching to play next season. It’s good to go out on your own terms instead of an injury, and he’s super motivated. He was actually the first guy to call us on the court to talk to both of us. He’s been really supportive. He gets so nervous that he can’t watch the matches but he watches the scores tick.

“I think Bob’s got first dibs,” said Mike Bryan.

“I think he’s earned it,” Sock replied.

“I might be the guy going out with injury next year, and it could be Jack and Bob,” said Mike Bryan.

Mike returned to No. 1 on 16 July, almost 15 years after first reaching the summit of the team game (8 September 2003), and has now won more major doubles titles (18) than any other player. With Sock, the Americans are up to fourth place in the ATP Doubles Race To London.

One spot above them in the battle for Nitto ATP Finals qualification, is the team of Mike and his brother, Bob, courtesy of two titles – the Miami Open presented by Itaú (d. Khachanov/Rublev) and the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters (d. Marach/Pavic) – from four straight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 finals (also Indian Wells and Madrid, where Bob sustained his injury).

It’s safe to say Mike has options over who to play with at The O2 in London, from 11-18 November.

“Bob and I are looking good for London,” said Mike Bryan at Wimbledon. “Jack and I are looking good.”

Sock said, “Mike looks good for London. That’s what it is.”

Mike smiled, adding, “I’ll probably qualify with someone.”

Time will tell if Bob will return this year, with his steel hip replacement, to the scene of two (2009, 2014) of their four season finale crowns (also 2003-04).