Rafael Nadal is to Roland Garros titles as water is to wet. So former World No. 1 Jim Courier, the 1991 and 1992 champion, believes that fourth seed Dominic Thiem will need to produce a special performance Sunday if he is to upset 11-time titles Rafael Nadal and lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires.

“He’s going to have to play a nearly flawless match because the next time you see Nadal play a bad match at Roland Garros will be the first time,” Courier told ATPTour.com.

Nadal is an astonishing 117-2 in best-of-five matches on clay, and 92-2 at Roland Garros. So the onus is on Thiem to find solutions to the questions Nadal asks on the terre battue rather than the Spaniard needing to do anything different than he has since earning his first title at this event in 2005.

“Unless Dominic is doing something that gets him out of his patterns, which would be hitting the hard backhand crosscourt into Nadal’s forehand, it’s just [Rafa] playing into his patterns and forcing Dominic to do something that’s uncomfortable for him,” Courier said. “If Nadal plays his normal patterns on clay, best of five, it’s been proven that he’s virtually unbeatable. And that will hold tomorrow unless Thiem does something extraordinary.”

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Nadal has lost twice at Roland Garros, though, and Thiem has defeated the Spaniard once in each of the past four years on clay. So it’s a matter of the Austrian bringing what he’s learned from his victories to Court Philippe Chatrier against a man who has dominated on that court. Courier points to how World No. 1 Novak Djokovic has played Nadal in the past, including in a straight-sets victory against the lefty at Roland Garros in 2015.

“Thiem’s going to need to take away Rafa’s patterns, so he’s going to need to replicate what Novak does so well against Rafa and stand in in the backhand corner, take the ball early, go hard crosscourt to move Nadal out of the centre of the court and then attack with the forehand from there,” Courier said. “That’s his best chance in the rallies to make damage. Novak has really written the playbook on how to play Rafa if you have a certain skill to take on his forehand.”

Watch Highlights Of Thiem & Nadal’s Most Recent Match (Barcelona 2019)

Thiem is well-known for the onslaught of heavy groundstrokes he sends towards his opponents from the baseline. While Djokovic neutralises Nadal’s crosscourt forehand with his two-handed backhand, though, Thiem uses a one-handed backhand. He will need to rely on remaining on the baseline or inside the court with that shot, in a way like Federer did during his recent five-match winning streak against Nadal before falling to the Spaniard in the semi-finals here.

“He won’t be able to run around a ton of those shots with his forehand if the rallies are starting out with Rafa in control. But we saw Roger Federer from 2017 on standing in and taking his one-handed backhand hard crosscourt, using Novak’s patterns as well with great success against Rafa on hard courts,” Courier said. “He was trying to do the same thing yesterday in their match in that windstorm, but it was very difficult to take clean hits at the ball.”

Although Thiem has struggled against Nadal at Roland Garros, losing all three of their previous meetings at this tournament without getting closer than 6-4 in a set, the Austrian has defeated the World No. 2 at four separate clay-court tournaments dating back to 2016 Buenos Aires.

“It’s important, the fact that he’s beaten Rafa on clay, the fact that he’s beaten him this year in Barcelona, a tournament that’s very important to Rafa. That certainly should and I imagine will give him confidence to believe that he could go toe-to-toe with Nadal,” Courier said. “Whether that’s enough to beat him in best of five, we’ll see. Many have beaten Rafa in best of three on clay, but few have done it in best of five. But he does have the ability to do it. He knows that from a two-out-of-three standpoint. If you could win two sets, you might be able to convince yourself you can win three.”

The 10 Stats To Know Before The Roland Garros Final

At last year’s US Open, Thiem pushed Nadal to the brink. The Spaniard needed four hours and 49 minutes in a match that went past 2 a.m. to defeat the powerful Austrian, doing so in a final-set tie-break. And Thiem also showed his fitness against the World No. 1 Saturday when he outlasted Djokovic in five sets over two days.

“I think the experience of having played Rafa last year [in the Roland Garros final] will help him more than anything that happened today. I think certainly it was important for him to win. But for those players, the conditions they played in yesterday and today, in some respects it was a matter of survival. It was less about tennis,” Courier said. “Tomorrow, if the wind is a little bit less, which is what the forecast is for, it becomes more about the Xs and Os and executing under pressure repeatedly against Nadal’s consistent pressure. So maybe the experience he had last year where he overplayed and went for too much will help him play a little bit of a more controlled, aggressive match, if you will.”

It’s no secret that Thiem is capable of playing sensational tennis. But it’ll be about taking the positives from all of his previous successes against Nadal and doing his best to apply them Sunday in what consistently has proven to be one of the toughest tasks in sports: defeating Nadal at Roland Garros.

“You can take confidence from anything if you can convince yourself to do it or if your team does,” Courier said. “It’s all about Dominic’s perspective on what things he wants to use to problem-solve Rafa going into a match where statistically his probability of winning is very low.”

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem have taken markedly different paths this fortnight, but find themselves in the same place. After weathering swirling winds, flying umbrellas and stiff challenges from the world’s best players, the second-seeded Spaniard and fourth-seeded Austrian meet on Sunday for the Roland Garros title.

Who will win the latest @FedEx ATP Head2Head match between these players?#RG19

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The 25-year-old Thiem is aware of the challenge he faces in toppling the greatest clay-court player of all time in Court Philippe-Chatrier. But having reached the final here last year, he won’t be content with simply making it to another championship match.

“To play Rafa here on this court is always the ultimate challenge, one of the toughest challenges in sports,” said Thiem. “I think it’s really important that I go into the match with the belief to win. That’s the most important thing. It’s a big dream for me to win this match, to win this title.”

Eleven-time champion Nadal leads his FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry with Thiem 8-4, but the Austrian has scored a clay-court win over Nadal each of the past four years, including their most recent meeting this April in the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell semi-finals. He’s the only player in that time to defeat the Spaniard more than once on this surface and joins Novak Djokovic as the only players with at least four clay-court victories over Nadal.

It’s a different story at Roland Garros, though. Nadal has swept all three matches and nine sets they’ve played here, including last year’s final. Although the second seed has history on his side, he’s approaching tomorrow’s battle with a clean slate

“In a final like this one, the opponent is always at a very high level, but that’s the rule of sports. That’s why this sport is even more interesting,” said Nadal. “I think that I’m confident in myself. If I’m not able to execute my game plan, it’s going to be complicated. But if I play well, and I have played well up to now, I’ve got all my chances. But it’s always a match and anything can happen.”

Nadal’s eye-raising credentials at the second major of the year are well-documented. He holds a staggering 92-2 record here and has won the title in 11 of his past 14 appearances. The Spaniard gets even more dangerous at the business end at this event. His Grand Slam final record is a combined 6-8 at the other three majors, but a flawless 11-0 in Paris.

Read: Nadal vs. Thiem: The Key Stats

It was hardly a guarantee that Nadal would make it back to the final Sunday this year. He started his clay-court season with three consecutive semi-final losses, falling to Fabio Fognini at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, Thiem in Barcelona and Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Mutua Madrid Open. Critics were quick to wonder if the Spaniard’s reign of dominance on clay had come to end.

The Spaniard silenced his doubters over the past four weeks. He defeated Djokovic for his 34th ATP Masters 1000 title at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia and has been in dominant form this fortnight. Nadal dropped a set in his third-round win over David Goffin, but lost an average of seven games in his other five matches.

“Being in the final of Roland Garros again means a lot and especially coming back from a tough situation with all the injuries that I had,” said Nadal. “Being able to recover the level that I had the past couple of weeks is something that I am very proud of. I’m just focused on keeping going and doing my thing well.”

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Although Thiem took the title in Barcelona (d. Medvedev), early exits in Monte-Carlo and Rome put a question mark on whether he’d bring his top form to Paris. He struggled early in the tournament, dropping sets in each of his first three matches.

But Thiem found a new gear in the second week. He posted convincing scorelines over Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov before his five-set semi-final victory over Djokovic that spanned two days. Saturday’s win made Thiem the first Austrian player to reach multiple Grand Slam finals.

Read: Thiem Ready For ‘Ultimate Challenge’ 

Thiem has been quick to reject suggestions that fitness could play a factor in Sunday’s match. Thiem has spent 15 hours and 25 minutes on court this fortnight, compared to 13 hours and 24 minutes on Nadal, and will compete for the fourth straight day on Sunday. But with a chance at his first Grand Slam title on the line, he’s prepared for one last push.

“I’m feeling fine. I’m full of adrenaline from today’s match and will have that tomorrow,” said Thiem. “I’m not going to be tired. It’s all going to come after the tournament. I’m ready to leave everything that I have out on the court tomorrow.”

After an exciting fortnight at Roland Garros, it has all come down to the final between 11-time champion Rafael Nadal and red-hot World No. 4 Dominic Thiem, who defeated top seed Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals, halting the Serbian’s chase for a fourth consecutive Grand Slam title.

Nadal leads Thiem 8-4 in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series, but the Austrian has found success in recent years against the Spaniard on clay. And fresh off an intense five-set victory against Djokovic, the 25-year-old will be confident in his game heading into the championship clash. ATPTour.com looks at the 10 stats you need to know before they walk on Court Philippe Chatrier Sunday:

1. Nadal Has Won All Three Of Their FedEx ATP Head2Head Meetings At Roland Garros
Thiem has shown his ability to defeat Nadal on clay, as he has beaten the Spaniard on the surface in each of the past four seasons. Nadal has only lost five additional clay-court matches during that span, with no player beating him more than once.

But Nadal has dominated Thiem at Roland Garros. The legendary lefty has won all nine sets they have played in their three meetings in Paris, with the Austrian never winning more than four games in any of those sets.

2. The Importance Of The First Set
Based on their history, odds are that whoever wins the first set in Sunday’s final will go on to lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires. Ten of their 12 matches have been decided in straight sets, and only once has the first-set loser gone on to triumph. That came at last year’s US Open after Nadal failed to win a game in the opening set.

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3. Rafa’s First-Serve Success Against Domi At Roland Garros
The key stat in the pair’s three previous Roland Garros meetings was their rate of first-serve points won. Nadal has won 73.6 per cent (117/159) of points on his first delivery against the Austrian in Paris. On the other hand, Thiem has struggled to win points on his first serve against the Spaniard, only managing to win 57.8 per cent of those points.

What may be more concerning for Thiem is that last year, in the final, Nadal won 82 per cent of his first-serve points, his highest rate of their three matches at the year’s second major.

4. Nadal’s Success Under Pressure Against Thiem In Paris
Nadal has broken Thiem’s serve at Roland Garros more often than he has faced break points himself. The 11-time champion has saved 11 of the 15 break points (73.3%) he has faced against Thiem on the terre battue, while the righty has saved 19 of the 37 break points (51.4%) he has confronted.

5. The Time Advantage
Nadal has spent 13 hours and 24 minutes on court so far this fortnight, whereas Thiem needed 15 hours and 25 minutes to reach the final. Although an extra two hours and one minute over the course of six matches may not be a massive difference, the Austrian had to finish his semi-final victory against World No. 1 Novak Djokovic on Saturday after rain suspended play Friday evening. Thiem also contested his quarter-final Thursday, so he will be competing for the fourth straight day. 

6. Repeat Final
Nadal and Thiem are meeting in the Roland Garros final for the second straight year. They are the 11th pair of players to battle in multiple championship matches at this event since 1925. Nadal has played Federer (2006-08, 2011) in the final here three times and Djokovic twice (2012, 2014).

Watch Highlights Of Nadal & Thiem’s Most Recent Match (2019 Barcelona)

7. Top 2 Conqueror
After defeating World No. 1 Djokovic in the semi-finals, Thiem has a chance to become the ninth man in the Open Era to defeat the Top 2 players in the ATP Rankings at a major. The only active player to accomplish that is former World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka, who has done it twice: en route to titles at the 2014 Australian Open and 2015 Roland Garros.

8. Ending The Big Three’s Streak
If Thiem claims his first major, he will end a streak of nine consecutive Grand Slam titles won by Djokovic (3), Federer (3) and Nadal (3). The only other active players who have won a Grand Slam are Wawrinka (3), former World No. 1 Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro (1) and Marin Cilic (1). 

9. Undefeated In Roland Garros Finals
Nadal has long dominated at Roland Garros, entering the championship match with a 92-2 record at this event. However, he has perhaps been even more impressive in finals in Paris, winning all 11 he has played. The Spaniard has been pushed to four sets in six of those matches, but he has never had to go the distance on Court Philippe Chatrier with the trophy on the lines.

Nadal could become the first man to win 12 tour-level singles titles at any event. No other man has captured more than eight trophies at a single major. Federer has earned eight Wimbledon crowns.

10. Austrian History
Thiem can become just the second Austrian man to win a Grand Slam singles title, joining Thomas Muster, the 1995 Roland Garros champion. The 25-year-old is already the first Austrian man to reach multiple major finals.

Thiem is trying to become the 150th man in history to win a Grand Slam singles title, with Cilic the most recent player to join the group at the 2014 US Open.

Novak Djokovic has experienced just about everything in his 16 years on tour. But his five-set Roland Garros semi-final classic with Dominic Thiem, which spanned two days and featured numerous rain delays, winds topping 39 miles per hour and even a flying umbrella, was a first.

“One of the worst conditions I’ve ever been part of,” said Djokovic. “Obviously when you’re playing in hurricane kind of conditions, it’s hard to perform your best. It’s really just kind of surviving in these kind of conditions and trying to hold your serve and play one ball more in the court than your opponent. That’s what it felt like playing yesterday, to be honest.

“[Thiem] played great, especially in the important moments. Made some really good slices and passing shots. He just managed to put one extra ball in the court at the end of the match. He’s playing great tennis. He showed why he’s one of the best players in the world and I wish him the best for the final.”

Djokovic was just two matches from completing his second “Nole Slam” by holding all four majors at once. The World No. 1 had history on his side, having won 10 consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals entering Saturday’s match and going on to lift the trophy on eight occasions. But while the Serbian was visibly emotional in the latter stages of the fifth set, he insisted the possibility of creating history wasn’t on his mind.

“There is always something large at stake when you’re one of the top players of the world and play in the biggest tournaments,” said Djokovic. “It’s not any different this time.”

Despite the loss, Djokovic can be pleased with turning his form around during the clay-court season. After failing to reach the semi-finals in Indian Wells, Miami and Monte-Carlo, he rebounded with his 33rd ATP Masters 1000 title at the Mutua Madrid Open (d. Tsitsipas) and a runner-up finish at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia (l. to Nadal). He also gained ATP Rankings points this fortnight by surpassing his quarter-final finish from last year.

Read: How Thiem Can Enter The Year-End No. 1 Conversation

As the World No. 1 gears up for his next event, a title defence at Wimbledon, he believes there is plenty to build on from the past month.

“I don’t think I have done too much wrong in the entire tournament…I played great tennis throughout most of the clay-court season. I didn’t drop a set here until the semis,” said Djokovic. “This match was always going to be tough because Dominic is a fantastic player in general, but especially on clay. It’s just unfortunate [that in] these kinds of matches, one or two points decide a winner.”