The National Bank Open Presented by Rogers singles draw was released on Friday, with a potential second-round showdown between World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev and Nick Kyrgios among the surprises.

Kyrgios holds a 2-1 edge in the pair’s ATP Head2Head, though Medvedev was victorious in their Australian Open meeting earlier this year. The Aussie will need to get past Sebastian Baez to set up a rematch, with Medvedev earning a bye as the Montreal top seed. Eighth seed Hubert Hurkacz is a potential quarter-final opponent for either man, while Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime headline the second quarter.

Carlos Alcaraz, seeking his third ATP Masters 1000 title, occupies the draw’s bottom line as the second seed. He could meet fifth seed Andrey Rublev for the first time in the quarter-finals. The 19-year-old is making his Montreal debut after claiming his first two Masters 1000s trophies in Miami and Madrid this year.

“At the moment everything is going well,” he said at the draw ceremony. “I like the weather. I like the court. At the moment I’m feeling great.

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In the draw’s third quarter, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner are in line for a sixth ATP Head2Head meeting, should the seeds hold.

“I see my chances [as] pretty good this year,” the Greek said at the draw ceremony. “I’m going to have to stick to what I do best. I work hard on the court. I’m hoping for good success in Montreal because I like this place. It has a very very good culture. The people here they have a very good sports culture, which I like a lot.”

The third seed is seeking his first win in at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Montreal. In two appearances at the tournament’s Toronto venue, he has reached a final (2018) and a semi-final (2021).

Playing in his first event since Wimbledon, Tsitsipas said the courts felt slower than he expected, which is to his liking. Alcaraz, coming off of two clay-court final runs in Hamburg and Umag, felt the opposite: “I came here and the first feeling that I had was ‘too fast for me,'” he said with a laugh.

The draw also served up a number of first-round highlights, including Taylor Fritz vs. Andy Murray, Denis Shapovalov vs. Alex de Minuar, Gael Monfils vs. Reilly Opelka and Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Matteo Berrettini.

Top seed Andrey Rublev completed part one of a two-step mission to reach the Citi Open semi-finals Friday, defeating American Maxime Cressy 6-4, 7-6(8) in early play.

The match was originally scheduled for Thursday, but was postponed due to heavy rain, forcing Rublev to play and win two matches Friday if he is to reach the last four in Washington, D.C.

In warm and humid conditions, the World No. 8 got off to a hot start against serve-and-volleyer Cressy, who forced the 24-year-old to consistently come up with high-quality passing shots. “To be honest it’s super tough to manage this type of style because you have to be focused 100%; you never know what to expect,” the 2018 D.C. semi-finalist said.

Rublev was dominant in the first set, breaking in the third game and winning all 14 of his first serve points.

The turning point in the second set came with Cressy serving at 5/3 in the tie-break. The 6’6” former UCLA star dashed to the net following a blistering serve and had a routine put-away smash on top of the net to set up three set points. Cressy fired the smash directly at Rublev, who reflexed back another easy overhead, which Cressy hit wide.

Rublev later admitted that he thought the second set was over when Cressy had the mini-break. “In my head, the second set was done and I’ll just do my best to finish the second and I’ll fight for the third,” Rublev recalled.

Having already won three titles this season (Marseille, Dubai, Belgrade), a title this week would draw Rublev level with Spaniards Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz for most titles on the year. He will continue his quest for the Citi Open when he matches up with J.J. Wolf in the quarter-finals later today. It will be the top seed’s first contest against the 23-year-old.

Wolf, who received a wild card into Washington, D.C., is into his first Tour-level quarter-final after defeating Holger Rune 7-5, 4-6, 6-3. Rallying to win the final four games, the former Ohio State standout now climbs up to a career-high 83 in the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings.

Rafael Nadal has withdrawn from next week’s National Bank Open Presented by Rogers in Montreal due to an ongoing abdominal issue.

The Spaniard aggravated the injury during his quarter-final clash against Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon on July 6. Despite battling through the pain to a remarkable five-set victory against the American, Nadal was later forced to withdraw from his semi-final clash against Nick Kyrgios. Nadal requires more time to recover from the problem, prompting his withdrawal from the hard-court ATP Masters 1000 event in Canada.

“I have been practising for a while now without serving and started with serves four days ago,” said Nadal in a statement via Tennis Canada. “Everything has been going well. However yesterday, after my normal practice, I felt a slight bother on my abdominal and today it was still there.

“After speaking with my doctor, we prefer to take things in a conservative way and give a few more days before starting to compete. I would like to thank Eugene, the Tournament Director, and all his team for understanding and supporting me and this decision.

“I am very sad not to finally travel to Montréal. It’s a tournament that I have won 5 times and I love to play there. I seriously hope I can come back there to play in front of the amazing crowds up there.”

The 36-time Masters 1000 champion Nadal is a five-time winner in Canada, with three of those titles coming in Montreal and two in Toronto. Despite missing all of April with a cracked rib and this current abdominal issue, the 36-year-old Spaniard has enjoyed a stellar 2022 season. Nadal holds a match record of 35-3 and lifted his record-extending 21st and 22nd Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and Roland Garros.

“We are obviously disappointed that Rafael will not be with us this year,” said Eugene Lapierre, director of the Montreal Tournament. “A five-time champion of our tournament and the last men’s champion in Montreal in 2019, fans were obviously eager to see him back in action at the IGA Stadium.

“On the other hand, when we take a broader perspective, we still have a very strong board with the presence of 41 of the 44 best players in the world. With such a strong field, it is a safe bet that the IGA Stadium will once again showcase very exciting tennis!”

World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion at the Canadian Masters 1000 event, which alternates between the host cities of Montreal and Toronto each year. This year’s edition of the third-oldest event on the ATP Tour will run from 7-14 August.

The draw for the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers will made today at 4:00 p.m. local time (EDT).

Miomir Kecmanovic earned a pair of quarter-final victories on Thursday at the Abierto de Tenis Mifel, following up his singles triumph with a doubles victory alonside American William Blumberg.

Blumberg and Kecmanovic battled back from a set down to defeat Andre Goransson and Ben McLachlan 1-6, 7-5, 10-4. The American-Serbian pairing also won a Match Tie-break in their opening-round win against Americans Nathaniel Lammons and Jackson Withrow.

A former North Carolina Tar Heel, Blumberg is seeking his second tour-level title in as many months after he teamed with Steve Johnson to win the Newport title in July. He also won the Newport title with Jack Sock in 2021 to claim his first tour-level trophy.

Kecmanovic is one win away from his first tour-level doubles final. The singles World No. 38 is also gearing up to face World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev in the Los Cabos singles semi-finals on Friday. He and Blumberg will face Santiago Gonzalez and Andres Molteni in Friday’s doubles semi-finals.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Chun-Hsin Tseng also advanced on Thursday, earning a 7-6(3), 6-3 upset win against second seeds and reigning Wimbledon champions Matthew Ebden and Max Purcell.

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Match Points Saved In Rainy Washington
In the lone doubles match to finish on Thursday at the Citi Open, Rohan Bopanna and Matwe Middelkoop saved two match points in a 7-6(10), 4-6, 12-10 victory against Colombians Robert Farah and Juan Sebastian Cabal. The Indian-Dutch duo trailed 8/9 and 9/10 in the Match Tie-break but won the final three points to advance.

John Peers and Daniel Evans claimed a 7-5 opening set against fourth seeds Ivan Dodig and Austin Krajicek before rain suspended play, while Nick Kyrgios and Jack Sock saw their matchup with Nicolas Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin postponed.

Felix Auger-Aliassime lost just one point on first serve Thursday night at the Abierto de Tenis Mifel as he fought off a stern challenge from Steve Johnson to reach the Los Cabos semi-finals. In his 6-4, 7-6(3) victory, the Canadian was all but flawless on his first delivery, winning 33 of 34 points (97 per cent).

“That’s a pretty good stat,” he said with a smile in his on-court interview. “I didn’t know it was that good. I knew it was good, definitely better than yesterday.

“I know my serve can be a really good weapon for me, a really strong one. Today I showed it, not facing a break point. That stat, I don’t know if I’ve done that before.”

After starting the match with an immediate break, the second seed dropped just two points on serve in the opening set. While he threatened with seven break points in the second set, Johnson held firm to force a tie-break, saving one of those break chances with a drop volley that was equal parts devilish and daring.

The tie-break remained on serve until two untimely forehand errors from Johnson brought up match point. Auger-Aliassime’s 17th ace sealed his progress to his 18th tour-level semi-final final and fourth of the season.

“The crowd was really nice today. It’s better not to play a Mexican here, so that was also nicer for me,” he added post-match, referencing his opening-round win over home favourite Alex Hernandez on Wednesday. 

Moving through to the SEMIS! 💪@felixtennis gets past Johnson 6-4, 7-6(3).@AbiertoLosCabos | #ATC2022 pic.twitter.com/NNxMRV81Qv

— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 5, 2022

Making his Los Cabos debut, Auger-Aliassime is seeking his second title of the season after he claimed his first career ATP Tour crown in February in Rotterdam. He will next face third seed Cameron Norrie or Moldova’s Radu Albot, with World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev set to meet Miomir Kecmanovic in the opposite semi-final.

The Canadian has a never lost against either Norrie or Albot, boasting a 4-0 ATP Head2Head record against the Briton and a 1-0 mark against the Moldovan.

Tennis is a 55-45 sport.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of match winners vs. match losers identifies that match winners on average win 55 per cent of points in a match while match losers still accumulate a healthy 45 per cent of total points played. The data set includes 464 players who have competed in 100 matches or more in their career from the 1991 season when official match statistics were first recorded.

When analysing only match winners, Rafael Nadal sits at the top of the tree as the most dominant player in our sport in the past 30+ years. When Nadal wins his matches, he consistently creates a greater margin of victory than any other player. The leading three players with the highest percentage of points won when winning matches are below.

Percentage Of Points Won By Match Winners
1. Rafael Nadal = 56.40%
2. Novak Djokovic = 56.12%
3. Roger Federer = 55.91%

It’s fascinating to see the “Big Three” grouped together at the top of the leaderboard all within one percentage point of each other.

When you look at the other side of the coin at match losers, the player who is essentially the “toughest out” in our sport is Federer. In a losing effort, he has consistently won more points than anyone on Tour.

Percentage Of Points Won By Match Losers
1: Roger Federer = 47.57%
T2: Richard Krajicek = 47.31%
T2: Milos Raonic = 47.31%

Federer leads this list from two big servers in Richard Krajicek and Milos Raonic, who were tied for second place. One assumption that can be made is that being a big server helps you keep matches closer than being a solid returner. That theory gets support when you look at other big servers such as Todd Martin (47.19%), Pete Sampras (47.15%), Ivo Karlovic (47.06%) Andy Roddick (46.91%), Stefanos Tsitsipas (46.88%) and Greg Rusedski (46.85%) in the leading 10 players in this category.

First-Serve Analysis
Match winners won a dominant 76 per cent of first-serve points, while match losers still averaged a respectable 67 per cent of first-serve points won in defeat. Goran Ivanisevic (85.56%) was most dominant in the match winners column, while Karlovic still managed to win 79.97 per cent of his points when defeated.

Second-Serve Analysis
Aussie lefty, Wayne Arthurs, led the Match Winners table, winning a hefty 60.45 per cent, while the rest of the players in the data set averaged winning 55.12 per cent of their second serves. When matches were lost, only John Isner (50.95%) and Arthurs (50.57%) managed to break the 50 per cent threshold for second-serve points won.

Summary
Defeat in tennis can be disappointing and deflating. Quite often players struggle to even pinpoint where things went off the rails or what part of their game broke down to contribute to the loss. But truth and inspiration can be found in the match analytics, which show just how far you really are away from your opponent.

A good way to think about winning and losing in tennis is each player who walks out onto the court is going to win at least 45 per cent of all points.

The real battle is focused on the remaining 10 per cent.

It was smooth sailing for Daniil Medvedev in the beach town of Los Cabos on Thursday, as the World No. 1 eased into the semi-finals of the Abierto de Tenis Mifel.

After earning his 250th match win in the opening round as he found his footing back on the hard courts for the first time since March, Medvedev reached a new gear in his debut at the ATP 250 with a 6-2, 6-2 victory against Ricardas Berankis.

“It was very different,” Medvedev said, comparing the match to his opening victory against Australian qualifier Rinky Hijikata. “My opponent [today] played very different, much more aggressive. To be honest, against that type of player sometimes you don’t have much to do. Just try to serve well, bringing the balls back in the court.

“That’s what I managed to do. He missed a little but too much today and that was enough.”

Medvedev dropped just three points on first serve, but made fewer than half of his first deliveries in the one-hour, 19-minute contest. He saved two break points in the opening set and had to navigate through a two-deuce service game midway throughout the second before sealing victory with his eighth ace.

Sealed with an ace! 👀@DaniilMedwed takes out Berankis 6-2, 6-2 to advance to the semi-finals in Los Cabos! @AbiertoLosCabos | #ATC2022 pic.twitter.com/5q3C7FhqnT

— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 5, 2022

The 26-year-old is two wins away from his first title of 2022, and one win away from securing his place atop the Pepperstone ATP Rankings until after the US Open, where he will be defending 2,000 points as the reigning champion.

“I like playing on hard courts. I’m playing great here so far,” Medvedev said of his confidence level. “Of course the further you go, the tougher the matches, the tougher the opponents, more pressure. But that’s what we like and I’m looking forward to tomorrow.”

Photo Credit: Mextenis

Fourth seed Miomir Kecmanovic will be his semi-final opponent after the Serbian scored a 6-2, 6-4 win against Brandon Nakashima earlier on Thursday. Kecmanovic boats a personal-best 29 match wins this season, including a 14-4 mark on hard courts. He is seeking his first tour-level final of the 2022 season as he prepares to play his second semi-final (Munich).

Medvedev won the lone previous ATP Head2Head matchup between the pair 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 this year in the Roland Garros third round.

After defeating last week’s Atlanta finalists Jenson Brooksby and Alex de Minaur in consecutive matches to kick-start his week at the Citi Open, Yoshihito Nishioka upset seventh seed Karen Khachanov 7-6(2), 7-6(1) on Thursday to reach the quarter-finals in the U.S. capital for the first time. 

It was one of only three singles matches to be completed before heavy rain brought an early end to the day’s play.

“Feeling wonderful,” the 26-year-old said after his latest victory. “From the first round, a very tough opponent [in Brooksby]. And then De Minuar, we always play tough matches with each other. Everybody knows he is fast, and I am fast, so everyone is thinking ‘who is faster?’ It was a battle yesterday.”

Fighting back from 1-4 down in the second set on Thursday, the World No. 96 edged through to notch his first win against Khachanov in three ATP Head2Head meetings and advance to his second tour-level quarter-final of the 2022 season (Acapulco).

“I never beat him, Khachanov, from when we were juniors,” Nishioka said. “I lost last year in the Olympics against him. Today I really wanted to bat him. It was a very, very close match but today I figured out how to beat him.

“Today was a crazy hot day. We both were a little bit tired for sure. I love long rallies; he doesn’t like it. He wants to hit big forehands, but I tried to keep making him run for balls and move him…. It was, I think, a mentality battle.”

Currently the Japanese No. 2 behind Taro Daniel, Nishioka has moved ahead of his countryman to No. 79 in the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings this week. He reached the Top 50 in 2020 and could return there by winning the D.C. title this week.

He will next face Daniel Evans, who saved a match point before advancing past third seed Taylor Fritz via retirement, leading 3-6, 7-6(6), 4-1. Fritz, playing in his first event since his Wimbledon quarter-final loss to Rafael Nadal, began to struggle physically in the second set but found a brilliant backhand winner to bring up match point at 6/5 in the second-set tie-break.

But Evans was rock solid in winning the next three points to level the match, and continued to make the fading Fritz work in the third set before his eventual retirement.

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Mikael Ymer also beat the rain to book a quarter-final berth with a 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-4 triumph against Emil Ruusuvuori. The Swede took out both former World No. 1 Andy Murray and Aslan Karatsev in three sets in his previous matches this week and Ymer proved his resilience again to clinch his first win in three attempts against Ruusuvuori, who stunned second seed Hubert Hurkacz on Wednesday. The 23-year-old will next take on Grigor Dimitrov or Sebastian Korda, with the Bulgarian up a set in that matchup.

Nick Kyrgios took a 7-6(1) opening set against fourth seed Reilly Opelka before the rain, while Botic van de Zandschulp and Frances Tiafoe are knotted at one set all.