Playing in his first ATP Tour match since his breakthrough run to the Australian Open semi-finals, Tommy Paul continued his red-hot form with a victory at the Delray Beach Open on Thursday. The second seed defeated countryman Denis Kudla 6-3, 6-4 to advance to the quarter-finals at the ATP 250.

Both players were part of the United States Davis Cup team that defeated Uzbekistan earlier this month, with both earning road singles victories. With the pair on opposite sides of the net in the U.S., Paul’s speed and athleticism helped him advance at his home tournament.

“It’s always nice to be home. I live like 15 minutes away from here,” said Paul, who hit seven aces and 14 winners. “It’s nice to play in front of of my friends and some of my family here. It’s easy to have my whole team here so it’s always a good time.”

While it took the American some time to adjust to the windy conditions in Delray Beach, he wrestled away control of the match by winning five straight games from 3-3 in the opening set. In holding for a 2-0 lead in set two, Paul saved what proved to be the last break point of the match for either man.

Paul won 12 of 16 points at the net in an aggressive display, while Kudla ventured forward just three times, winning one of those points.

Entering this week at a career-high of No. 18 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings, Paul must advance to the semi-finals to maintain his place in the Top 20. His next goal is to crack the Top 15.

“We’ve been putting in a lot of work here in Delray and in Boca,” he said. “I’ve been training a tonne, working on and off court. I feel like I’ve made a lot of jumps in my game so hopefully we can keep a good level going here this week and all the way through the rest of the year.”

Paul will meet Radu Albot in Friday’s quarter-finals after the Moldovan’s 6-4, 6-4 win against Aleksandar Vukic earlier on Thursday. Paul holds a 1-0 lead in the pair’s ATP Head2Head series, with a straight-sets win in Astana in 2020.

At the highest level of the sport, tennis is a game of small margins. In these settings, tactical innovations can be very effective.

Whether it’s Novak Djokovic often serving to the forehand on second serve or Maxime Cressy regularly storming the net to serve and volley on second serve, strategic innovations breathe new life and excitement into the game.

One recent and highly effective tactical innovation is the use of the forehand drop shot by the 2022 year-end World No. 1, Carlos Alcaraz.

Drop shots are nothing new on the tour, particularly on clay. But for players at the very top of the game, Alcaraz has employed the forehand drop shot with an unusually high frequency and effectiveness, including on hard courts.

On average, ATP players tend to deploy about 0.85 rally-ending forehand drop shots and 1.05 rally-ending backhand drop shots per match, winning about 51.5% of the points off the forehand drop shot and just 39.7% of the points off the backhand drop shot.

But not Carlos Alcaraz. The Spanish teen phenom employs the forehand drop shot a breezy 2.83 times per match, with an impressive win rate of 67.7%, and the backhand drop shot at a high 1.34 times per match, with a respectable win rate of 52.1%. This pattern is even more pronounced on clay, where Alcaraz hits 3.81 forehand drop shots per match and 1.84 backhand drop shots per match.

Unlike most players on tour, who slightly prefer backhand drop shots, Alcaraz strongly prefers the forehand drop shot (see below). During big moments in a match, Alcaraz does not shy away from this shot either. One in six of his forehand drop shots occurs on break points and points that can lead to break points, with an exceptionally high win rate of 71.4%.

Forehand and backhand drop shot usage by leading ATP Tour players .  

Remarkably, once Alcaraz started making his way up to the Pepperstone ATP Rankings during the 2021 season, players took notice and started using the forehand drop shot much more frequently. Players who already used the forehand drop shot often (e.g., Ruud, Fritz, Sinner, Tiafoe, and Bublik) turned to it even more. Yet, unlike Alcaraz, the increased use of the forehand drop shot after Alcaraz burst on the scene has not resulted in a high win percentage; in fact it has declined from 52.4% to 48.2%.

Forehand and backhand drop shot win percentage for leading ATP Tour players.

Ultimately, no other player in the Top 100 executes the forehand drop shot as well and as often as Alcaraz. The forehand drop shot is a hard shot to pull off on a regular basis. So, what explains the success of the Alcaraz drop shot and his use of it?

The animation below illustrates some of the key ingredients of the efficiency of the Alcaraz drop shot.

First, before resorting to a forehand drop shot, Alcaraz pushes opponents far behind the baseline. Prior to deploying the drop shot, his opponents stand 14.5 meters behind the net on average (compared to 12.9 meters on average in rallies versus Alcaraz). To do this, Alcaraz uses high-speed rally shots (134 km/h on average) to push his opponents into a defensive posture just before hitting his forehand drop shot (compared to a 113-115 km/h average rally speed by Alcaraz, consistent with other top players).

Next, Alcaraz often places his forehand drop shot to the other extreme distance from that point: usually, right in front of the net on the ad side. With a well-placed shot, opponents must cover 10.9 meters on average in 2.1 seconds from the time the shot is hit to reach the Alcaraz forehand drop shot. Subtracting the average time to recognise the shot, stop, and hit it (1.0 seconds), leaves 1.1 seconds for the run itself, requiring about 9.9 meters per second speed off the gun. Although a world-class sprinter like Usain Bolt could easily accomplish this feat, it is difficult for even fast ATP players to hit a high-quality shot in response.

The rise of forehand drop shots before and after the emergence of Alcaraz among the Top 100 players (excluding Alcaraz).

Covering this distance is even more difficult because Alcaraz is a master at hiding his forehand drop shot. Alcaraz disguises it so well that his average opponent moves back when they see Alcaraz raise his racquet– as if he is about to hit another hard, deep shot – creating a lag time between Alcaraz’s racquet contact and his opponents beginning to move that is rarely seen. Moreover, Alcaraz sets up forehand drop shots not only with his deuce side forehand but also mixes in plenty of run-around forehand drop shots, and at all different points in the rally, including his serve + 1 shot. Combining all these features, Alcaraz’s forehand drop shot is the deadliest in the game.

Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series in which Golden Set Analytics and TDI strive to provide a better understanding of the dynamics of tennis for players, coaches, fans and administrators.

Jannik Sinner emphatically ended his four-match losing streak against Stefanos Tsitsipas with a 6-4, 6-3 win on Thursday night at the ABN AMRO Open. The Rotterdam victory is the Italian’s first against a Top 3 opponent.

The 21-year-old, who lost in five sets to Tsitsipas in one of the matches of the Australian Open, used a dominant serving performance and an aggressive return game to earn his first win against the Greek since 2020. Sinner won 89 per cent of his first-serve points and converted on three of his four break points, a backhand passing shot clinching his third break and the match after one hour, 21 minutes. He did not face a break point.

“It means a lot obviously,” Sinner said of the biggest win of his career by measure of the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. “A lot of work behind. I’m very happy. I played some good tennis, very focussed today. Hopefully I can keep it going but for sure, Stef is an incredible player. I have a lot of respect for him. He played incredible tennis this year already.

“I was looking forward to this match to be honest, after my win yesterday already. So I’m very happy about my performance today.”

Sinner improved to 2-5 in his ATP Head2Head against Tsitsipas, the top seed in Rotterdam. After three straight-set defeats from 2021-22, the Italian has turned around their rivalry this season, winning four of the past five sets. He fell just short in a five-set thriller in the Australian Open fourth round, but left nothing to chance in a comprehensive victory at the ATP 500.

“Head-to-head I am still far back to him,” Sinner said. “For me this is a very important win. I lost a tough one in Australia, where I felt like I was playing great. Today I was also playing good.”

Up two places to No. 12 in the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings this week, Sinner will meet Stan Wawrinka in Friday’s quarter-finals. The Swiss defeated Richard Gasquet 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday and has not dropped a set — or his serve — in two Rotterdam matches.

“I’m very happy that he is playing again at a very, very high level,” Sinner said of the 37-year-old. “I played last year at Wimbledon against him. He has improved a lot from that point. I know him quite well. He is a hard worker. It’s going to be a tough march for sure.”

Netflix’s Break Point told the story of the biggest victory of Taylor Fritz’s career, when he won his first ATP Masters 1000 crown at the BNP Paribas Open in his native Southern California. 

But there was no camera crew following the American when he was grinding his way through the junior ranks and the ATP Challenger Tour — periods filled with difficult moments, hard work and sacrifice with no guarantee of success.

“I’ve given my whole life to the sport,” he reflected in a recent interview with the ATP Tour. “Parties, high school, none of that… college, didn’t happen. I definitely traded a normal life. I knew what I wanted, I knew I wanted to be a professional athlete.

“I’ve had so many days where you just question why you’re even doing it. That’s how hard you need to be pushing yourself all the time. You need to be working so hard that it’s not fun.”

 

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Fritz is certainly having fun now as a member of the Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. The American No. 1 first broke into that elite group in October 2022, just weeks before his 25th birthday that same month.

That milestone moment came after he won his fourth career title (and third of 2022) at the ATP 500 in Tokyo, where he beat countryman and fellow Break Point star Frances Tiafoe in the final. But after years at the game’s highest level, Fritz has learned to deal with the inevitable setbacks that come with life on the Tour.

“It’s not easy. You play a sport where every single week, everyone loses but one person,” he said. “You’ve got to get used to losing.

“But I love what we do and it’s definitely worth all the sacrifice to be where I am right now.”

Defending champion Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev have set a blockbuster quarter-final showdown at the ABN AMRO Open after comfortable second-round victories Thursday.

Third-seeded Auger-Aliassime served nine aces in a 6-4, 6-3 win over French qualifier Gregoire Barrere. But the Canadian will look to improve his lackluster 50 per cent first-serve percentage before coming up against Medvedev.

Medvedev saved all six break points faced in his 6-2, 6-2 win over Dutchman Botic van de Zandschulp.

Medvedev has won all four of his meetings with Felix, but three have gone the distance, including a 2022 Australian Open quarter-final meeting, in which Medvedev rallied from two sets down to win. The World No. 11 is expecting another close battle.

“The further you go, normally the higher-ranked players you play,” Medvedev said. “Felix is a top player. He won here last year and played amazing at the end of last year. Looking forward to a tough match and hopefully I can be at my best.

“The harder your opponent, the more you’re going to feel you have to play better. He’s going to take his opportunities. He’s going to go for it when he has the chance. I will need to be at my best.”

Michael Mmoh is feeling right at home at the Delray Beach Open after his second straight three-set win earned him a place in the quarter-finals of the Florida ATP 250. The 25-year-old, who was born in Saudi Arabia and holds both American and Australian citizenship, upset third seed Denis Shapovalov 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 on Wednesday night.

Mmoh stormed back from 1-4 down in the opening set, then escaped 0/40 at 2-2 in the third before claiming his third break late in the set and serving out the victory.

“It’s amazing,” Mmoh said after winning in front of the supportive Delray Beach crowd. “I’ve been in Florida for the past 10 years. I call this my home state. To have a packed-out crowd like I did tonight, there was lot more people on Wednesday night than there was on Monday. Thank all you guys for coming out.”

After riding a hot start in his first-round win against fellow American Aleksandar Kovacevic, Mmoh overcame a slow opening against Shapovalov, who suffered his third straight tour-level defeat.

“I think I just started off a little flat,” he said. “I just tried to tell myself to increase the energy… I wanted, win or lose, just to have energy. That got me back in the first set, and unfortunately I lost the second but my energy was there throughout. I think that’s part of the reason I got the W.”

Mmoh will face Mackenzie McDonald in the quarter-finals after the American’s 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 upset of fifth seed Yoshihito Nishioka.

In the bottom half of the draw, Marcos Giron and fourth seed Miomir Kecmanovic will meet in the quarters after both scored straight-sets wins on Wednesday. Giron ended the dream ATP Tour debut of 33-year-old Matija Pecotic with a 6-3, 6-3 win, while Kecmanovic downed Nuno Borges 6-3. 7-5.

Playing his first ATP Tour match in more than three months, Carlos Alcaraz made a winning return to competition on Wednesday night at the Argentina Open. The first former World No. 1 to compete in Buenos Aires since Gustavo Kuerten in 2004, the Spaniard lived up to lofty expectations with a powerful performance at the ATP 250.

Returning from recent abdominal and hamstring injuries, Alcaraz earned a 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 victory in two hours against Laslo Djere. He was at his best early and late as he moved through the gears, treating the expectant crowd to the full range of magic that helped him claim the 2022 year-end No. 1 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings.

“It’s a great feeling to win again,” Alcaraz said post-match. “It’s been a long time for me with no competition, with no matches, just recovering. Finally I got my first win of 2023.”

A fast start quelled any early nerves, as the 19-year-old raced to a 3-1 lead. But he could not win a wild second set that included 15 combined break points, none of which were converted until Djere made the breakthrough on his second set point. Any disappointment was short-lived with an immediate break putting Alcaraz back in command. Like in the opening set, he did not face a break point in the decider. 

While he did most of his damage with heavy baseline blows, Alcaraz mixed in a few drop shots and net approaches as he eased back into competition in a welcoming atmosphere. He was serenaded with an “Ole Carlos” chant in between sets, with Argentine legend Gabriela Sabatini among those in the stands to see the the Spaniard’s tournament debut.

“I’m really happy [in Buenos Aires],” Alcaraz said. “I didn’t expect such a great crowd, a great atmosphere behind me. So I just can say thank you to all the fans here in Buenos Aires for the warm welcome that I received in this first match and I hope to keep going with this energy.”

After an abdominal tear ended his 2022 season after the Rolex Paris Masters, Alcaraz picked up a hamstring injury during his preparations for the Australian Open. He lost the top spot in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings to Novak Djokovic during his time on the sidelines, but now begins his charge to return to the pinnacle of men’s tennis.

Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz caused an upset at the ABN AMRO Open on Wednesday when they defeated top seeds Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski 6-3, 6-3 to reach the quarter-finals.

The Germans won 86 per cent of their first-serve points and saved all three break points they faced to advance at the Rotterdam ATP 500 event.

Krawietz and Puetz are finding their rhythm in their second tournament of the year together after reaching the semi-finals last week in Montpellier.

In other action, Santiago Gonzalez and Edouard Roger-Vasselin ousted home favourites Robin Haase and Matwe Middelkoop 7-6(6), 6-4. They will next play third seeds Ivan Dodig and Austin Krajicek.

Australian Open Champ Makes Successful Start In Delray Beach
Rinky Hijikata won the Australian Open doubles title this year alongside Jason Kubler. On Wednesday, the Australian partnered American Reese Stalder past Argentines Guido Andreozzi and Guillermo Duran 7-5, 2-6, 10-6. They will play second seeds Jamie Murray and Michael Venus in the quarter-finals. Murray and Venus beat William Blumberg and Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4, 6-3.

Philipp Oswald and Jordan Thompson also moved through to the last eight when they ousted Yuki Bhambri and Saketh Myneni 6-2, 6-4 to set a clash with top seeds Marcelo Arevalo and Jean-Julien Rojer.

Nuno Borges and Andre Goransson clawed past third seeds Nathaniel Lammons and Jackson Withrow 6-3, 3-6, 10-6.

Cameron Norrie was two points from defeat on three occasions on Wednesday at the Argentina Open, but the Briton found his best tennis at the crucial moments to deny Argentine wild card Facundo Diaz Acosta an upset win in his native Buenos Aires.

In a 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) victory, Norrie never truly hit top gear, but the second seed showed his champion mentality to get over the line at the ATP 250. 

“I thought Facu played great and it was a battle out there. It was my first [ATP Tour] match on clay in a while,” said Norrie, who earned two Davis Cup wins on the clay of Colombia earlier this month. “I have a lot of things to work on but it was a great atmosphere and I had a lot of people supporting me as well, so I really enjoyed. But I need to improve a lot.”

In the closing stages, Norrie was able to redirect the pacy groundstrokes from his opponent to great effect, attacking without taking big risks as the pressure mounted. Diaz Acosta was two points from victory on return at 5-4, 30/30 and twice in the tie-break at 5/5 and 6/6 after leading 4/1. But each time, Norrie had the answer.

“I love Argentina. I came here early to prepare,” he shared. “Not really the level I wanted to be playing but I feel good here and obviously my coach and my physio are from here, so it’s a special place for me.”

After saving 10 of 14 break points in the two-hour, 59-minute match, the Briton advanced to the quarter-finals. He will next face another Argentine in Tomas Martin Etcheverry, a 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 winner against Roberto Carballes Baena earlier on Wednesday.

Dominic Thiem announced on Wednesday that he has been awarded a wild card into the BNP Paribas Open, the ATP Masters 1000 event held at Indian Wells. The last time the Austrian competed in the tournament, four years ago, he captured the title.

“Hello Indian Wells! Today I received the great message that I will get a wild card for the 2023 BNP Paribas Open,” Thiem said. “It’s unbelievable news for me as it’s a tournament I love and it’s going to be the first time I played there since I won the tournament in 2019. So looking forward to seeing you all there. Thank you!”

Testing, testing 🎙

2019 champion @domithiem has an important announcement to make 🗣🌴 pic.twitter.com/84NwqlIyMU

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) February 15, 2023

The 29-year-old owns a 13-5 record at Indian Wells, where he debuted in 2014. During his dream run in 2019, Thiem upset Roger Federer in the final to secure his maiden Masters 1000 trophy. This year’s BNP Paribas Open will be played from 8-19 March.

Thiem, who is still battling back to top form following a 2021 wrist injury, is No. 99 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. The Austrian is competing this week in the Argentina Open in Buenos Aires.