Daniil Medvedev has been on fire the past two months, winning titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami while also reaching the final at Indian Wells. The secret to his success has been simple.

Dominance in tennis is often thought of as controlling play with a particularly powerful stroke, like Rafael Nadal’s forehand or Stan Wawrinka’s backhand. But Medvedev, the first-placed player in the Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin, has commanded the action in recent weeks by using another weapon: consistency.

According to statistics provided by Tennis Data Innovations, Medvedev has thrived not on power and spin, but by putting the ball between the lines over and over again. Medvedev has laid down a challenge to his opponents: I will not miss. What will you do to stop me?

During his past five tournaments, only Carlos Alcaraz in the BNP Paribas Open final has managed to break down the Medvedev wall. The 27-year-old has won 24 of his past 25 matches behind jaw-dropping consistency.

Forehands: Medvedev vs. The Field (2023 Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells & Miami)

Medvedev has made 88.4 per cent of his forehand groundstrokes (not including returns) compared to 85 per cent for the field at those five tournaments. A difference of 3.4 per cent might not seem like much, but it ultimately has proven critical.

Medvedev has missed an average of 11 forehands per match compared to nearly 16 for his opponents. Matches at the highest level often come down to a few key points, so every extra mistake counts.

Opponents have hit their forehands nearly one mile per hour harder than Medvedev (76.1mph to 75.2 mph) and with more spin (2,784 rpm to 2,467 rpm), but consistency has proven more important.

The gap has been even wider elsewhere. Medvedev made 92 per cent of his backhand groundstrokes at the aforementioned five tournaments compared to 85.9 per cent for the field, missing just 9.5 backhands per match (12.4 for opponents).

Backhands: Medvedev vs. The Field

Commentators and fans alike often discuss Medvedev’s deep return position. While some players step in to take a crack at second-serve returns, the World No. 5 remains well behind the baseline. The results have been inarguable.

Medvedev has missed an average of just two second-serve returns per match during his hot streak compared to 3.9 for the field. Not only has he rarely missed, but the 6’6” righty has also hit those shots significantly harder than opponents (75.2 mph to 71 mph).

Standing deep in the court allows Medvedev to take a bigger swing at the ball. Not only does he give himself more time to hit the ball harder, but he almost never misses those critical returns.

Second-Serve Returns: Medvedev vs. The Field

It has not been a case of Medvedev locking down against lesser opponents, either. In the final of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships against Top 10 star Andrey Rublev, Medvedev made an astonishing 100 per cent of his backhand groundstrokes (not including returns) and 100 per cent of his second-serve returns.

Rublev is one of the biggest ball-strikers on the ATP Tour, especially on the forehand side. Medvedev kept his cool and put up his defensive wall. It was not a small sample size. Medvedev made all 61 of his backhand groundstrokes in that match according to the data.

In the Miami Open presented by Itau final against Jannik Sinner, another of the Tour’s biggest hitters, Medvedev made 88 per cent of his forehand groundstrokes, 94 per cent of his backhand groundstrokes and 92.6 per cent of his second-serve returns.

Medvedev’s magic has not been in the sizzle of flashy winners — and he has hit his fair share of those — but in his consistency. Will he be able to maintain that during the clay-court season, starting this week at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters? The third seed will certainly try.

“You can’t change what you do in nine months or a year drastically,” Medvedev said of the surface change during his pre-tournament press conference. “So I have to find a good balance where I still play my game, with a little change, with some shots in the right moment.”

For the most part, that means staying consistent. Medvedev begins his clay season on Wednesday against Italian wild card Lorenzo Sonego.

Editor’s Note: Data comes from automated ball and player tracking data.

The only five players in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters singles draw who have yet to open their campaigns will do so on Wednesday as the second round comes to a close in Monaco.

Sixth seed Holger Rune meets the resurgent Dominic Thiem in the Monaco evening showpiece, while eight seed Taylor Fritz starts his clay-court swing against Stan Wawrinka. Third seed Daniil Medvedev will look to continue his red-hot run on a new surface against Lorenzo Sonego, while Casper Ruud seeks to back up his Estoril title run in his opening match against Botic van de Zandschulp. Seventh seed Jannik Sinner rounds out the openers with his matchup against Diego Schwartzman.

ATPTour.com breaks down the biggest matches from the Day 4 slate in the Principality. Only 16 singles competitors will remain at the conclusion of play.

View Schedule | View Singles Draw | View Doubles Draw

[6] Holger Rune (DEN) vs. [WC] Dominic Thiem (AUS)

Rune has reached two semi-finals this season, in Montpellier and Acapulco, consolidating his place in the Top 10 of the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. But after his breakthrough title run at the Rolex Paris Masters last November, which lifted him into the Top 10 for the first time, the Dane went 3-2 at the first two ATP Masters 1000s of this season in Indian Wells and Miami.

Now back in action at that prestigious level, the 19-year-old faces another tough test. There was no shame in his defeats to Wawrinka and Fritz at the past two events, but he will be eager to avoid another early exit on the red clay of Monte-Carlo against Thiem.

The Austrian ended a five-match losing streak with a quarter-final run in Estoril last week, and he carried that form into Monte-Carlo, where he earned his first Masters 1000 win since last year in Rome with a 6-1, 6-4 victory against Richard Gasquet. 

“It is important to get matches and you only get them if you win, so last week was a very good step with the quarter-finals,” Thiem said after playing perhaps his best match of 2023. “Here [it] is very nice to win a match, and it is my first win at an [ATP Masters] 1000 tournament for a long time.”

Tuesday’s meeting on Court Rainier III will be the pair’s first ATP Head2Head matchup.

[8] Taylor Fritz (USA) vs. Stan Wawrinka (SUI)

Fritz’s recent rise to the Top 5 of the Pepperstone ATP Rankings was largely built on hard-court success. The 2022 BNP Paribas Open champion stands at World No. 10 entering Monte-Carlo after quarter-final runs at both Indian Wells and Miami, with eight of his 10 ATP Tour finals coming on hard courts and the other two on grass (Eastbourne titles in 2019 and 2022).

Having established himself among the ATP Tour’s elite over the past year, aided by a semi-final run in his Nitto ATP Finals debut, Fritz will now seek to make his mark on clay.

Wawrinka, his opening opponent in Monte-Carlo, believes the Netflix Break Point star is more than capable of continued success on the dirt.

“He is an amazing player,” the Swiss said of Fritz. “He is Top 10, been winning a lot of matches, winning a lot of tournaments. He is very dangerous on many surfaces.”

A champion in Monte-Carlo in 2014, and at Roland Garros one year later, Wawrinka has a long history of clay success. He won the first of his 16 tour-level titles on the clay of Umag in 2006 and owns seven titles on the surface.

The 38-year-old used every bit of his experience to earn a comeback 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 opening win against Tallon Griekspoor on Monday in Monte-Carlo. If he can find a way past Fritz on Court des Princes, it would mark the fourth straight event in which he has recorded at least two victories following a five-set defeat to Alex Molcan in the Australian Open first round.

[3] Daniil Medvedev vs. Lorenzo Sonego (ITA)

Medvedev makes no secret of the fact that clay is not his favourite surface. But the 27-year-old is prepared to adapt his game to the slower conditions as he seeks to maintain the momentum of a scorching stretch that has seen him reach five straight finals and win four titles, culminating with his maiden Miami triumph.

“I definitely have to change my game because my strokes are too flat and clay does not let the ball go through the court as much,” Medvedev said in his pre-tournament press conference. “My opponents can use those [shots against me].

“At the same time, you can’t change what you do in nine months or a year drastically, so I have to find a good balance where I still play my game, with a little change, with some shots in the right moment.”

Sonego, his opening opponent, has proven his ability on all surfaces, with his three ATP Tour titles split between grass, clay and hard courts. The Italian gave Medvedev all he could handle earlier this season in Adelaide in what was the first match of 2023 for both men. In what was their lone previous ATP Head2Head meeting, Medvedev saved nine set points to steal the opener, with Sonego ultimately retiring in the second set due to leg cramps.

Fatigue could be a factor again on Wedneday as Sonego enters their Monte-Carlo meeting without a rest day following his 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 win against Ugo Humbert, during which he saved a match point in stunning fashion.

Also In Action…

In addition to Rune vs. Thiem and Medvedev vs. Sonego, two more marquee matchups are set for Court Rainier III on Wednesday.

Fourth seed Ruud will open the day’s play on the stadium court against van de Zandschulp. The 2022 Roland Garros finalist has won the past two clay events he’s played, in Gstaad last July and in Estoril last week, giving him an eight-match winning streak on his best surface.

Following that, seventh seed Jannik Sinner takes on Diego Schwartzman. The opponents were on the same side of the net in Monte-Carlo doubles action, scoring an opening win before a second-round defeat. Sinner will look to build on semi-final and final runs in Indian Wells and Miami, respectively, while Schwartzman aims to kickstart his 2023 campaign by backing up his opening win against David Goffin.

In Wednesday’s doubles action, top seeds Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski meet singles stars Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev, while Petros Tsitsipas and Stefanos Tsitsipas look to continue their run against third seeds Marcelo Arevalo and Jean-Julien Rojer.

Lacking match play and lacing up for his first clay-court contest of the season, Novak Djokovic wasn’t surprised that his first ATP Masters 1000 outing of the year wasn’t all smooth sailing.

Playing his first match in five weeks, and his first in Monte-Carlo since last year’s early upset to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the World No. 1 kicked off his Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters title quest with a 7-6(5), 6-2 second-round victory against qualifier Ivan Gakhov. The Serbian has won 16 of 17 matches this year, but still had moments of uncertainty against the left-handed World No. 198.

“Match play is what I need,” Djokovic said in his post-match press conference. “Practice points is something that helps, but nothing helps as [much as] playing an official match. So that’s why I’m hoping I can have as many matches as possible this week.

“I’m really glad I overcame the first step, because I hope things will be better and easier from this point onwards.”

Despite being a two-time champion in the Principality and holding 18 tour-level titles on clay, the World No. 1 stated that this time of year always brings a fresh test.

“Clay surface for me is the most challenging surface to adapt, to get into rhythm,” Djokovic said. “Maybe for some other guys it’s more natural, the movement, the ball striking, in a way finding the right tempo on the shots. For me, it just takes more than some other guys. That’s how it is, how it always was.”

Not only was Tuesday’s second-round match a challenge with the adjustment to clay, but Djokovic also encountered an opponent he hadn’t played before. The lefty Gakhov, who is World No. 198, left a strong impression on the 22-time major champion.

“I’m glad to start a clay season with a win against [an] opponent I didn’t know much about prior to today,” Djokovic said. “I actually watched a little bit of his video from the first-round win he had yesterday. That’s it.

“I knew he was a left-handed player, and I haven’t actually practised with left-handed players for a few weeks. So it took some adjustment to return the serve and to deal with the heavy topspin from his forehand. Very good player. I heard he has been training and living in Spain for quite a long time, so I can see why he’s been successful on clay.”

Pursuing a record-extending 39th ATP Masters 1000 crown this week, Djokovic will next meet Lorenzo Musetti or Luca Nardi.

After squaring off on the singles court two weeks ago in Miami, Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune are thriving as first-time partners this week at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters.

The American-Danish duo defeated fourth seeds Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic 6-3, 6-4 on Tuesday in Monaco to advance to the quarter-finals at the ATP Masters 1000 event, backing up their opening win against Italians Simone Bolelli and Lorenzo Musetti on Monday.

Fritz and Rune were dominant on first serve against the Wimbledon finalists from Croatia, winning 87 per cent of points behind their first delivery and saving three of five break points against them. They converted on four of their seven break chances on return to maintain their perfect record as a team, without a set lost in their two matches.

All four Tuesday doubles matches were decided in straight sets in the Principality, with the French-German team of Fabrice Martin and Andreas Mies also advancing to the quarter-finals with a 6-4, 6-4 win against Diego Schwartzman and Jannik Sinner.

In opening-round action, sixth seeds Lloyd Glasspool and Harri Heliovaara avoided the fate of fellow favourites Mektic/Pavic with a 6-3, 6-4 win against Nicolas Mahut and Stan Wawrinka, and Argentines Andres Molteni and Maximo Gonzalez beat Maxime Cressy and Matwe Middelkoop 6-3, 7-6(2).

Novak Djokovic enjoyed a special treat Tuesday after winning his opening match at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. The World No. 1 met Formula 1 star George Russell, who was in the stands watching his match.

Russell quickly asked the Serbian how he felt the clash against Ivan Gakhov went.

“It was good. It’s a solid start, but it could always be better,” Djokovic responded. “Perfection is, that level, you’re looking to get better, to improve.”

“What I find so difficult for you guys is especially when you play second or third or fourth, you never know timings,” Russell told Djokovic.

“It’s challenging and today I waited maybe an hour and a half or two hours more than I expected. So then you’re like, ‘Should I be warming up or cooling down’ and that makes you a bit anxious,” Djokovic said.

When in Monaco 🏎️@DjokerNole and @GeorgeRussell63 meet after Djokovic’s win 🙌@ROLEXMCMASTERS | #RolexMonteCarloMasters pic.twitter.com/DAhwgxJ7Lh

— ATP Tour (@atptour) April 11, 2023

The two-time Monte-Carlo champion asked Russell how he is doing.

“We’ve got Azerbaijan is the next one. We just came back from Melbourne,” Russell said.

“How long does it take for you to get used to the time change?” Djokovic asked.

“Melbourne’s killer. It’s probably taken a week to come back,” the Briton responded.

Russell explained that the next race was meant to be in China next week, but it was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We’ve actually got a couple weeks off, Azerbaijan and then the season really kicks off,” Russell said.

“Then Monte-Carlo next after that?” Djokovic wondered.

“Miami then Monte-Carlo,” Russell said.

“They don’t really keep you in the continents right?” Djokovic added, cracking a laugh. “They kind of move you around the world.”

Djokovic will face an Italian in the third round in the Principality: Lorenzo Musetti or Luca Nardi.

Stefanos Tsitsipas advanced to the third round at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters on Tuesday when Benjamin Bonzi was forced to retire with a wrist injury.

The two-time defending champion was savouring his return to the clay courts of Monaco with punishing serves and forehands, but Bonzi was unable to continue beyond 22 minutes, with Tsitsipas leading 4-1 on Court Rainier III.

“A great start out there. A 3-0 lead, I will always take it,” Tsitsipas said post-match. “Happy to be back on the terre bateau of Monte-Carlo. It’s a very unique location during the year and I’m happy this is the time of the year we get to play on these courts. It brings back very good memories.

“It’s very unfortunate what happened out there for my opponent. I wish him the best moving forward.”

Aiming to become the third player to win the Monte-Carlo title at least three times in a row, the second seed awaits Nicolas Jarry or Alexei Popyrin, with the pair set to square off on Wednesday in the Principality. (Ilie Nastase won the Monaco trophy three straight years from 1971-73, while Rafael Nadal reigned from 2005-12 and 2016-18.)

Looking ahead to his meeting with Jarry or Popyrin, Tsitsipas is preparing for a tough match no matter the opponent. 

“Good servers, both of them,” he assessed. “I know that they can play good on clay and for me this is a challenging match, whether it’s one or the other.”

Tsitsipas’ Tuesday victory stretched his Monte-Carlo winning streak to 11 matches following a third-round loss to Daniil Medvedev in 2019. As he defends 1,000 Pepperstone ATP Rankings points this week, the World No. 3 has slipped behind Casper Ruud and Medvedev at No. 5 in the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings.

With his record now standing at 15-4 this season, Tsitsipas improved to 3-0 against Bonzi with the win. The Frenchman’s injury denied him an opportunity to fight for what could have been his first Top 10 win against the Australian Open finalist.

Novak Djokovic made a winning return to action on Tuesday at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters.

The World No. 1 faced a spirited challenge rom World No. 198 Ivan Gakhov and was in danger of losing the opening set. But Djokovic navigated the big moments well to reach the third round with a 7-6(5), 6-2 win.

“It was probably, if you can call it this way, an ugly tennis win for me today,” Djokovic said in his on-court interview. “I haven’t played my best, particularly in the first set. And I kind of expected that that was going to happen in a way with swirly conditions, a lot of wind today, changing directions.

“It’s different practising and then playing an official match on clay, [where] I guess no two bounces are the same. It’s always quite unpredictable what’s going to happen. But all in all, I’m just pleased with the way I held my nerves I think in the important moments and I managed to clinch the two-set win.”

Gakhov was the fourth alternate into the qualifying field and took full advantage of the opportunity to reach the main draw and earn his first ATP Tour win to advance to the second round. But Djokovic was playing his 1,254th tour-level match compared to Gakhov’s third, and that experience paid dividends in the critical moments.

“I never saw Ivan play before today to be honest. I’ve seen a little bit of his video from yesterday’s match and that’s all,” Djokovic said. “That was not the best preparation, but he’s a young player coming up from the Challenger Tour and he just was on a roll.”

Djokovic was not at his soaring best in his first match since losing to Daniil Medvedev in the Dubai semi-finals in early March. But when in trouble serving at 5-5, 0/30, the Serbian calmly served and volleyed behind a second serve and hit a tremendous drop volley from his shoestrings to get out of trouble.

Gakhov still had an opportunity to take the opener in the tie-break against the player he told ATPTour.com is the “greatest of all time” on Monday. But the 26-year-old relinquished a mini break with a mishit forehand at 2/3 and never was able to recover.

The lefty played beyond his No. 161 Pepperstone ATP Live Ranking, showing no fear of the moment and using his aggressive forehand to keep Djokovic at bay. But the Serbian surged through the end of the second set and saved three of the four break points he faced in the match. The pair shared a warm moment at the net in which Gakhov told the top seed he had hoped to play him once.

“He knows how to play, no doubt about it. Big serve, forehand, flat backhand stepping in,” Djokovic said. “So it was a very tricky opponent for today, but I’m glad I overcame the challenge.”

Djokovic is pursuing a record-extending 39th ATP Masters 1000 title this week and his third trophy in Monte-Carlo. The top seed will play an Italian in the third round: Lorenzo Musetti or Luca Nardi.

Andrey Rublev survived a second-round scare on Tuesday at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters to earn his 250th tour-level win. The fifth seed rallied from a set down to defeat Spaniard Jaume Munar 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 at the clay-court event.

Rublev, who reached the final in the Principality in 2021, overpowered Munar, clubbing 36 winners and breaking Munar’s serve six times to advance after two hours and 12 minutes. It was a strong turnaround after losing the first set.

“The feeling was, ‘No way, I might be out in the first round of Monaco.’ Then, I don’t know, I started to feel I had to change something, I had to play more aggressive,” Rublev said in his on-court interview. “I cannot just push the ball because in the end he [was] running much better than me and in the end he [was] waiting for the right moment and he changed much easier [the direction] because I [was] not putting pressure on him.”

The 25-year-old now leads the World No. 83 Spaniard 2-1 in their ATP Head2Head series and will next face Karen Khachanov, Daniel Evans or qualifier Ilya Ivashka.

Earlier, Khachanov maintained his strong from when he cruised past 2022 Monte-Carlo finalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-2, 6-2 in 75 minutes. The World No. 11 has won five of his past six matches after advancing to the semi-finals in Miami earlier this month. 

World No. 24 Davidovich Fokina will slip to at least World No. 37 next week following his first-round loss according to the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings.

^{Photo Credit: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour}
Alexander Zverev made a winning start to his clay-court season when he overcame Alexander Bublik 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.

The German was competing on the surface for the first time since he retired from his 2022 Roland Garros semi-final clash against Rafael Nadal due to a right ankle injury and he recovered from a slow start to move past Bublik in one hour and 58 minutes.

The 13th seed moved better on Court Rainier III as the first-round match went on. He slid into shots to strike 21 winners, while he committed nine unforced errors to earn his ninth win of the season.

“It felt awful at times to be honest, but he made me feel awful,” Zverev said. “Tactically he played well, he didn’t let me play my game at all. He didn’t let me have my rhythm and he almost won the match, just a few points here and there.

“I have had two weeks of practice now. It is the most natural surface for me. It usually takes me five or 10 minutes to get used to a clay court, but this year was a bit different. I needed to get the injury out of my head. I needed to get used to sliding again.”

Zverev, who has improved to 1-2 in his ATP Head2Head series against Bublik, will next play Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut.

The 25-year-old German is a two-time semi-finalist in Monte-Carlo, having enjoyed runs to the last four in 2018 and 2022. Six of Zverev’s 19 tour-level titles have come on clay, including at ATP Masters 1000 events in Rome (2017) and Madrid (2018, 22).