Novak Djokovic is two sets from securing his 24th Grand Slam title.

Two years after suffering a stunning upset to Daniil Medvedev in the US Open final, the Serbian leads the 27-year-old 6-3 inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The last time the pair met at Flushing Meadows, Djokovic was trying to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win all four majors in the same season. On that occasion, he was unable to find his best tennis and a surging Medvedev triumphed in straight sets.

Djokovic is in much better form Sunday. He broke serve in his first return game of the match en route to a 3-0 lead and has been locked in from the baseline, where he has played aggressively in rallies to prevent his opponent from settling in.

Medvedev has not played poorly, but the second seed has just been a little bit sharper in gruelling points. The 36-year-old Djokovic is 72-1 at the US Open after winning the first set, with his only loss coming in the 2016 final against Stan Wawrinka.

Two months ago, Djokovic suffered a heartbreaking five-set defeat in the Wimbledon final to Carlos Alcaraz. The 23-time major champion has carried an intense demeanour since returning to action in Cincinnati, winning all 11 of his matches following his loss at SW19.

If Djokovic defeats Medvedev, he will pass Alcaraz for first place in the Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin. He is trying to secure ATP Year-End No. 1 presented by Pepperstone for a record-extending eighth time.

Medvedev is trying to become the first player to defeat the top two seeds en route to the US Open title since Manuel Orantes in 1975. The Tour’s 2023 leader in hard-court wins (38) upset Alcaraz in four sets in the semi-finals.

Did You Know?
This year’s US Open men’s singles final between Djokovic (36 years) and Medvedev (27) is the oldest in the Open Era at 63 years, nine months. The previous record belonged to the 2022 championship clash between Pete Sampras (31) and Andre Agassi (32).

Roger Federer and Andy Roddick headlined the list of ATP stars who congratulated Coco Gauff on social media following her US Open victory.

Others who sent the American well wishes were her coach, Brad Gilbert, Rod Laver and longtime friend Christopher Eubanks.

“Inspirational win @CocoGauff 🎉,” Federer wrote. “Been watching your 🎾and following you for years. It’s great to see so much hard work and passion being rewarded. You shine brighter than ever. 🌟”

Inspirational win @CocoGauff 🎉,
Been watching your 🎾 and following you for years. It’s great to see so much hard work and passion being rewarded.
You shine brighter than ever🌟#TEAM8 pic.twitter.com/BmtEnOz9O0

— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) September 10, 2023

⁦.. ⁦@bgtennisnation⁩ ⁦@CocoGauff⁩ Just epic. Couldn’t be happier for BG and Coco ! pic.twitter.com/7gopdp43pA

— andyroddick (@andyroddick) September 10, 2023

the champion ⁦@CocoGauff⁩ what a amazing journey this summer, your 1st ⁦@usopen⁩ 💪👍👊👍😎 pic.twitter.com/TtF91USVHp

— Brad Gilbert (@bgtennisnation) September 9, 2023

Congratulations on breaking the ice at the US Open @CocoGauff. Winning your first major at home is special. You kept calm and withstood the pressure with maturity and purpose, the sign of a great champion. Enjoy the moment! 🚀

— Rod Laver (@rodlaver) September 9, 2023

No one more deserving than you! Congratulations Champ 🏆😭 @CocoGauff pic.twitter.com/f4lqyjkdr3

— Christopher Eubanks (@chris_eubanks96) September 9, 2023

What a moment @CocoGauff Congratulations on an amazing performance and you are a true champion on and off the court. You make the sport proud

— James Blake (@JRBlake) September 9, 2023

Huge congratulations @CocoGauff on your @usopen championship. Everyone in Delray Beach is so proud! Your first of many majors to come 🙌 #USOpen pic.twitter.com/v8MA8957Nv

— Kevin Anderson (@KAndersonATP) September 10, 2023

Congrats to @CocoGauff ….true champion in every way….

Super pumped for her and her team and @bgtennisnation …. pic.twitter.com/YEVIdmnRMV

— Patrick McEnroe (@PatrickMcEnroe) September 10, 2023

Once Daniil Medvedev has control, he rarely relinquishes it.

In 2023, the World No. 3 has lost just once in 48 tour-level matches in which he has won the first set. Adrian Mannarino’s 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 second-round victory in ‘s-Hertogenbosch in June makes the Frenchman the only owner of a comeback victory against Medvedev this season.

Medvedev’s masterclass in frontrunning is not a new trend, either. He is now 272-28 across his career after winning the opening set. Those statistics from Infosys ATP Stats suggest the 27-year-old will take a big step towards his second major title by starting fast against Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s US Open championship match.

Highest Win Percentage After Winning First Set, 2023

A look at Medvedev’s previous victories against Djokovic also suggests the opening set could be crucial. Four of his five Lexus ATP Head2Head victories against the Serbian came after he won the first set, with his only comeback victory coming in the pair’s Cincinnati semi-final in 2019.

However, there are also fewer opponents who are likely to be less bothered by such numbers than 23-time Grand Slam titlist Djokovic, renowned for his ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and especially when it comes to five-set battles at the majors.

The Serbian has been almost as capable a frontrunner as Medvedev this year (he is 38-2 in 2023 after winning the opening set), and the numbers also indicate Djokovic does not rely as heavily on a fast start as his championship-match opponent. Medvedev is 8-10 this season after dropping the opening set, while Djokovic by comparison is 6-3.

So the first box for Medvedev to tick when he steps out on Arthur Ashe Stadium? Start fast and take the opening set. The second? To put his foot down and don’t look back… Just like he did in his straight-sets victory against the Serbian in the 2021 final at Flushing Meadows.