Improved Return Game Fueling Thiem's Top-10 Quest
Improved Return Game Fueling Thiem's Top-10 Quest
Dominic Thiem is on a collision course with a highly coveted Emirates ATP Top 10 ranking.
The 22-year-old Austrian is the youngest player in the Top 25 and is currently ranked 14, courtesy of a scorching 22-5 record to start 2016. He posted a career high ranking of 13 last week.
Thiem has won ATP World Tour titles in Acapulco and Buenos Aires already this year and sits only 285 ranking points behind Richard Gasquet, who is No. 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings this week.He is fourth in the Emirates ATP Race to London, and while the season is still young, it clearly reflects the hot streak he is currently on.
An Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers analysis of Thiem’s progress this year indicates that a stronger return game and improved efficiency on break points are driving him higher up the rankings.
|
Returning |
2015 |
2016 |
% change |
|
1st Serve Return Pts. Won |
28% |
31% |
+3% |
|
2nd Serve Return Pts. Won |
49% |
50% |
+1% |
|
Break Points Converted |
33% |
39% |
+6% |
|
Return Games Won |
20% |
25% |
+5% |
|
Return Points Won |
36% |
39% |
+3% |
Thiem is winning a commendable three per cent more points returning opponents’ first serves from 2015 to 2016, but is enjoying a substantial 16 per cent improvement in converting break points against first serves. He has won 37 per cent (58/161) of break points against opponents’ first serves in 2015, but in the first two months of 2016, that has elevated to a remarkable 52 per cent (62/70). That’s substantially better than the top three ranked players in the world during the same two-month period. World No. 1, Novak Djokovic, was only at 33 per cent (27/82). Andy Murray clocked in at 35 per cent (21/60), while Roger Federer was at 42 per cent (21/51).
Thiem’s mental toughness is evidenced by his ability to break serve right after the disappointment of being broken himself. His numbers in this specific category were better than those of all five players in the bottom half of the Top 10, and equal with those of Andy Murray and Roger Federer at 22 per cent.
|
Ranking |
Player |
Break Straight Back % (Jan-Feb 2016) |
|
1 |
Djokovic |
38% |
|
2 |
Murray |
22% |
|
3 |
Federer |
22% |
|
4 |
Wawrinka |
32% |
|
5 |
Nadal |
34% |
|
6 |
Nishikori |
14% |
|
7 |
Berdych |
18% |
|
8 |
Ferrer |
9% |
|
9 |
Tsonga |
14% |
|
10 |
Gasquet |
9% |
|
14 |
THIEM |
22% |
This week in Miami, Thiem is defending a quarter-final showing (180 Emirates ranking points) from last year, so he will need to make the semi-finals or better to have a chance to leap into the revered Top 10 in the world.