Djokovic Breaks The Mould

There is a golfing term that perfectly sums up the uneven relationship between the fairway and the green – “you drive for show, but you putt for dough”.

That phrase speaks volumes to understanding the importance of the deuce court and ad court in tennis, specifically relating to break points.

The deuce court is the fairway, always hosting the beginning of the game, and the ad court is the green, where the majority of the winning and losing in our sport takes place.

You would expect Top 25 players to perform better where most of the action occurs – in the ad court – but surprisingly, it’s just the opposite.

An Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers analysis of the Top 25 in the Emirates ATP Rankings in the 2015 season, and also the first two months of this year, clearly shows that “putting for dough” in the ad court has some catching up to do.

More than three out of four (76.6 per cent) of all break points occurred in the ad court last year in this Top 25 analysis. The only break point opportunity in the deuce court in tennis occurs at 15-40, which equated to just 23.4 per cent of the time.

What’s puzzling is that the Top 25 in the world perform better converting break points in the deuce court than the ad court.

2015 Season	Deuce Court	Ad Court
Side of Court Break Point Played	23.4%	76.6%
Returner Win %	44.6%	40.8%

After two months of competition in the 2016 season, those same trends are all very close to the much bigger data set of the 11 months of the 2015 season.

2016 Jan/Feb	Deuce Court	Ad Court
Side of Court Break Point Played	23.8%	76.2%
Returner Win %	42.9%	40.6%

Hidden Djokovic Advantage

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic had a season for the ages in 2015. He went 82-6, winning 11 titles, including three Grand Slams, six ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. Djokovic also amassed more than $21 million in prize money.

Interestingly, Djokovic was one of only five players of the 2015 year-end Top 25 who had a superior winning percentage converting break points in the ad court than in the deuce.

Djokovic converted break points 46.6 per cent of the time in the ad court and 42.5 per cent of the time in the deuce court. The other players to be better in the ad court were David Ferrer, David Goffin, Fabio Fognini and Viktor Troicki.

A common thread to figure out why these five players are different needs to focus on the formidable backhand strength each of them possesses, and the increased amount of early action the backhand typically sees when points start in the ad court.

That’s not to say other Top 25 players don’t have remarkable backhands, as they clearly do, but these five have figured out a way to improve their personal ad court performance.

For a right-handed player to turn a backhand return into forehand, it seems easier to do it in the deuce court, where they run around to the middle of the court, rather than running off the court in the ad court.

Leaderboard	Player	Ad Ct Converting Break Points
1	David Ferrer	47.7%
2	Gilles Simon	46.8%
3	Novak Djokovic	46.6%
4	Andy Murray	45.4%
5	Tomas Berdych	45.2%
6	Roberto Bautista Agut	44.3%
7	Fabio Fognini	43.4%
8	Viktor Troicki	42.3%
9	Benoit Paire	42.9%
10	David Goffin	42.0%

Ad Court – Best at Converting Break Points

But flying in the face of that wisdom is Rafael Nadal, who converted break points 52.8 per cent in the deuce court, where he would have to run off the court to hit a forehand, and 40.8 per cent in the ad, where he would get to run to the middle of the court.

Practice Court

Another factor for consideration is the practice court.

At all levels of the game, the most common side to practice serve and return is the deuce court, where games naturally begin. Developing the angles and strategy in the ad court simply does not get the same amount of practice time as the deuce court does – even though more than three out of four of the “big” points happen in the ad.

Overview

The difference between good and great in our sport is very difficult to put your finger on and often times exists between the ears, or in the hidden flow of tactics all over court.

Decorated South African golfer, Bobby Locke, who won four golfing “Grand Slams” at the Open Championship, knew exactly the message he was sending with his famous “putt for dough” quote.

These break point numbers shed light on a critical element of our sport and open the door for more insight and discussion as to just how players make the leap from good to great to legend status in our sport.

Year End Ranking	Player	Deuce BP Win %	Deuce Broken	Total Deuce BP’s	Ad BP Win %	Ad Broken	Ad Total BP’s
1	Djokovic	42.5%	96	226	46.6%	327	701
2	Murray	48.0%	82	171	45.4%	258	568
3	Federer	44.3%	70	158	40.4%	207	512
4	Wawrinka	45.7%	64	140	37.4%	175	468
5	Nadal	52.8%	94	178	40.8%	236	578
6	Berdych	51.2%	66	129	45.2%	198	438
7	Ferrer	40.8%	62	152	47.7%	244	512
8	Nishikori	48.8%	62	127	38.4%	167	435
9	Gasquet	48.2%	55	114	40.8%	144	353
10	Tsonga	44.8%	43	96	37.1%	119	321
11	Isner	41.7%	35	84	33.2%	77	232
12	Anderson	39.2%	38	97	37.2%	125	336
13	Cilic	41.7%	35	84	39.5%	130	329
14	Raonic	35.1%	20	57	33.2%	63	190
15	Simon	53.1%	78	147	46.8%	196	419
16	Goffin	34.1%	45	132	42.0%	172	410
17	Lopez	36.5%	38	104	32.9%	104	316
18	Tomic	43.8%	49	112	40.7%	138	339
19	Paire	56.6%	43	76	42.9%	111	259
20	Thiem	39.0%	39	100	32.0%	130	406
21	Fognini	37.4%	37	99	43.4%	158	364
22	Troicki	32.3%	32	99	43.3%	156	360
23	Karlovic	39.1%	27	69	30.7%	71	231
24	Monfils	56.4%	53	94	35.9%	107	298
25	B. Agut	48.4%	61	126	44.3%	153	345