Brain Game: Rethinking Rafa's Game Plan

Rafael Nadal defeated Gael Monfils 7-5, 5-7, 6-0 to win a ninth title at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, dominating the shorter exchanges much more than the extended rallies.

Nadal is widely known as the King of Clay, where longer, grueling rallies dominate the European clay court landscape. But his win over Monfils in Monte-Carlo today was much more about attacking first, and accepting the trophy later. Nadal won 57 per cent of rallies in the zero-to-four shot range; 59 per cent in the five-to-nine shot rally length and just 47 per cent of rallies nine shots or longer. Nadal won the battle of zero-to-four shots 45-34, laying the foundation for a ninth title in the Principality.

The best clay court player of the past decade did not dominate the long exchanges. He actually lost the battle of rallies of nine shots or longer, 26-29. That’s just fine for the 2016 Rafael Nadal. Overall, the Spaniard dominated the shot exchanges up to nine shots, where around 90 per cent of points are played, and he was quite OK with Monfils wining the rest.

Court Position

There is an illusion that Nadal plays much deeper in the court than his opponents, regularly making contact with the ball closer to the back fence than the baseline. It’s simply not true.

In the final against Monfils, Nadal felt the magnetism of the baseline better than his French opponent, making contact inside the baseline 18 per cent of the time, compared to nine per cent for Monfils. Nadal hit 53 per cent of his shots within two meters of the baseline, compared to Monfils’ 45 per cent, which enabled the Spaniard to open the court better with superior depth and direction.

A major factor in the final was balls hit very deep in the court, effectively forcing the opponent to make contact more than two meters behind the baseline. You would think Nadal would be the player backing up the most, but he made contact closer to the baseline than Monfils. A major factor in matches like this is court position, because the farther you can push your opponent back, the less he can hurt you.

Forehands vs. Backhands

When Rafa was “Rafa” just a few years ago, he was hitting as many forehands as possible to push the opponent back, and then opening the court with better baseline geometry. This final was another example of the inner workings of the Spanish clay-court master. Overall, Nadal hit forehands 57 per cent of the time compared to 51 per cent for Monfils. In a game of inches, these are the metrics that separate good from great.

Nadal’s spin, on both forehands and backhands, was greater than Monfils, helping the Spaniard commit fewer unforced errors (36 to 51) and push the Frenchman back. Nadal’s average forehand topspin rate (rpm) was a massive 3288rpm, considerably more than Monfils’ 2765 rpm. Nadal also put more work on his backhand, averaging 2583rpm to the Frenchman’s 2136rpm. Monfils hit his forehand harder, averaging 127kph to Nadal’s 121kph, but ultimately the Spaniard landed his forehand inside the lines a lot more.

Return Depth

Monfils won the battle of deep returns, hitting 33 per cent of his returns closer to the baseline than the service line, compared to Nadal’s 19 per cent. But it was the strategy and execution that followed that proved to be the difference for the Spaniard.

Avoiding the Middle

Both players were quick to stretch the opponent out wide, avoiding going down the middle of the court against an opponent who was not going to miss. Nadal hit only 5 per cent of his shots down the middle of the court, targeting Monfils’ backhand 66 per cent of the time and forehand 29 per cent of the time. Monfils hit only 10 per cent of his shots down the middle of the court, focusing 51 per cent of his groundstrokes to Nadal’s backhand and 39 per cent to Nadal’s forehand.

Nine Titles

Nadal’s ninth title in Monte-Carlo was built much more on suffocating defense than anything else. He made Wawrinka snap a racquet over his leg after four games. He also dominated Andy Murray and Monfils in deciding sets. If you simply can’t put a ball away, it makes for a very tough day at the office. The king of clay just put his crown back on his head.