Who Stands Between Nadal And A Sixth Madrid Title?

With 11th titles in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, Rafael Nadal’s clay-court season already has a familiar dominant ring about it as the ATP World Tour turns to the Mutua Madrid Open. Victory in Barcelona over first-time finalist #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas handed Nadal his 19th straight match win on clay.

And the No. 1 in the ATP Rankings has now claimed 46 straight sets on his favourite surface, with his most recent defeat on clay coming to Dominic Thiem in last year’s Rome quarter-finals.

With big-name rivals Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka absent, who holds the best chance at standing between the Spaniard and a sixth Mutua Madrid Open trophy? Nadal must capture his 32nd Masters 1000 crown at the Caja Magica if he is to remain at No. 1.

Dominic Thiem
The Austrian has long been touted Nadal’s most likely successor as the man to beat on clay but since a foot injury suffered during Indian Wells, the 24-year-old is yet to really hit his straps. A runner-up to Nadal in last year’s Mutua Madrid Open final, Thiem went on to avenge that loss with a straight-sets dismissal of the Spaniard in the quarter-finals in Rome before Nadal turned the tables in the Roland Garros semi-finals. Thiem has already won a clay-court title this season at the Argentina Open (d. Bedene). In Monte-Carlo he salvaged just two games from Nadal in the quarter-finals – although it was his first tournament since Indian Wells – before a surprise defeat to Tsitsipas in the Barcelona quarter-finals.

Juan Martin del Potro
As the man with the weapons to beat any player on his day, much is expected of Juan Martin del Potro after his dominant stretch on hard courts prior to the clay-court swing. After winning 15 straight matches with title runs in Acapulco and Indian Wells before a semi-final finish in Miami, the Argentine took a break and named Madrid as his first clay-court event of the year. Del Potro’s record in Madrid stands at 14-6, with his best run coming in 2012 where he reached the semi-finals (l. to Berdych). Much will depend on how well the 29-year-old can hit through his opponents, particularly whether he’s feeling confident on his two-handed backhand.

Alexander Zverev
A first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown in Rome last season gives World No. 3 Alexander Zverev reason to believe he can make a third Masters 1000 breakthrough in Madrid. The German beat Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych before falling to Pablo Cuevas in the quarter-finals on debut in the Spanish capital in 2017. Since pushing Nadal to five sets in the third round of the 2017 Australian Open, the 21-year-old has run into Nadal on two occasions – both on clay this season – where he has managed to win 11 games. Nadal won at home in a Davis Cup quarter-final rubber before romping past Zverev en route to his 11th Monte-Carlo trophy. 

Novak Djokovic
As the player with 30 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles to his name and arguably Nadal’s toughest opponent on clay over the years, it would be remiss to write off Novak Djokovic too soon. Coming off minor elbow surgery in February, the former No. 1 in the ATP Rankings is struggling to rediscover his form and after defeat in the opening round in Barcelona last week to Slovakian World No. 140 Martin Klizan, the Serbian admitted he hadn’t lived up to expectations. Djokovic fell to Nadal in straight sets in last year’s semi-final, having claimed his second Mutua Madrid Open title in 2016 (d. Murray). He defeated Nadal in the final to claim the 2011 title. 

David Goffin
After a freak eye injury forced David Goffin to retire from his ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament semi-final in February, it wasn’t until the clay-court season rolled around that the Belgian began to find his range again. A quarter-final loss to Grigor Dimitrov preceded a run to the semi-finals last week in Barcelona, where he recovered from a set down three times before a convincing 6-4, 6-0 defeat to Nadal, after which he conceded it “almost seems impossible” to defeat the Spaniard at his best on clay. It was Nadal who also ended his run in the Madrid quarter-finals in 2017.