Ranking Projection: Will Shapovalov Crack The Top 20?

#NextGenATP star Denis Shapovalov has enjoyed a steady climb up the ATP Rankings. The 19-year-old will have an opportunity to crack the Top 20 for the first time if he makes a deep run at the Miami Open presented by Itaú.

Shapovalov begins the year’s second ATP Masters 1000 event as World No. 23, his career-high ATP Ranking. Since he advanced to the fourth round in Miami in 2018, if he doesn’t repeat that performance, he’ll drop 90 points on 1 April. To give himself a chance of cracking the Top 20, Shapovalov will have to advance to the semi-finals or better. Shapovalov would add 360 points for a semi-final showing, a net gain of 270 points.

Making it that far in Miami may seem like a tough task for a teenager, but Shapovalov is no stranger to deep runs at Masters 1000 tournaments. In 2017, the Canadian stunned the tennis world with his thrilling run to the last four at the Rogers Cup. Last year, he impressed by making the semi-finals of the Mutua Madrid Open.

Shapovalov may also be confident based on his draw. He could face a tough test in the third round against ninth seed Marin Cilic in the third round, but Shapovalov defeated the Croat in straight sets in Indian Wells. The top seed in Shapovalov’s quarter of the draw is reigning Nitto ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev.

Another #NextGenATP player who could make a move is reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek lost in the first round in Miami last year, so while he will drop 10 points, he is guaranteed to gain a minimum of 10 points regardless of his result. At worst, he will break even on 1 April and stay at 3,160 points.

Since World No. 8 Juan Martin del Potro drops 360 points (2018 semi-finalist) and will not gain anything due to his withdrawal (knee), Tsitsipas can pass him by making the fourth round (adding 90 points). World No. 9 John Isner drops 1,000 points from his victory last year. So in reality, Tsitsipas begins the event with a 665-point advantage over the American.

It is an important week if Isner hopes to remain in the Top 10, a group he has been a member of since 10 September 2018. To have any chance of maintaining his spot in the Top 10, Isner must advance to the semi-finals or better.

Read: Five Early-Round Matches To Watch In Miami

While it might be tough this tournament, former World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka is in good position to climb closer to the top of the ATP Rankings in the next six weeks. Wawrinka, currently No. 37, is at his highest standing since last May.

The better news for the Swiss is that he has no points to defend until the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in May, and only 65 points through the end of Roland Garros. Wawrinka could face Roger Federer in the third round in Miami.

Points Per Round In Miami