SF Preview: Djokovic & Alcaraz Meet For First Time In Madrid

Saturday is semi-final day at the Mutua Madrid Open, with both the men’s singles and doubles draws getting down to the business end at the ATP Masters 1000 event. The first ATP Head2Head meeting between top seed Novak Djokovic and home favourite Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled for 4 p.m. local time, with the 11th matchup between defending champion Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas set to close out the day’s play in Manolo Santana Stadium.

In the doubles action on Court Arantxa Sanchez, Miami champions Hubert Hurkacz and John Isner seek a second straight title in their partnership.

View Singles Draw | View Doubles Draw | View Schedule

[1] Novak Djokovic (SER) vs. [7] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)

After beating Rafael Nadal for the first time in three tries in Friday’s quarter-finals, becoming the first teenager to defeat his countryman on clay, the 19-year-old Alcaraz has a chance to beat World No. 1 Djokovic for the first time in the semis. While Alcaraz has won back-to-back three-setters to reach this stage, extending his win streak to eight in the process following his Barcelona title, Djokovic has not dropped a set in Madrid. The Serbian moved efficiently past Gael Monfils and Hurkacz either side of a walkover against Andy Murray.

With Djokovic and Alcaraz yet to meet on the ATP Tour, we can look at their respective Balance of Power and Conversion & Steal metrics to get a sense for how the match might play out. In short, Balance of Power measures to the percentage of shots a player hits from an attacking position, while the Conversion & Steal rates quantify how often a player “converts” points from an attacking position and “steals” points from defence.

The figures below for the four semi-finalists are from this week Madrid, where Djokovic and Alcaraz practised together ahead of the tournament.

While both Djokovic and Alcaraz are above average in all three categories, Djokovic dominates in the Balance of Power, where he is seven per centage points (or 33 per cent) ahead of the field. The Serbian excels in controlling rallies by getting on the front foot, and converts on 73 per cent of points in which he gains an attacking advantage. 

Alcaraz shines in the Steal metric, where he is eight percentage points (or 18.6 per cent) above Tour average. The Spaniard has proven expert at using his speed and defence to turn points around in Madrid, never more crucially than on match point against Nadal, where he capped off a mad dash with a passing shot winner.

Looking ahead to the prospect of facing a second legend in as many days, Alcaraz credited his opponent while maintaining a strong sense of self-belief.

“Of course Djokovic is one of the best players of history for me. Everything that he has achieved for tennis, it’s amazing. You just can admire him,” he said.

“I have lived tough moments. [This is] the first time that I’m going to face him, but it’s not the first time I’m going to play in front of a lot of people in a great court, in a semi-finals of a Masters 1000. So I’m going to step into the court the way I have stepped out today. Of course there are going to be nerves, but I’m going to try to manage them in the best possible way, and I’m going to try to give a good level. I know that I’m going to have opportunities, and of course the training that I have had with him this week, it helps me a little bit to know how to face him in tomorrow’s match.”

Djokovic was equally laudatory in his assessment of the Spaniard, noting that he loves to watch Alcaraz play. He was also quick to compliment the way his opponent handles himself both on and off the court, with Alcaraz climbing three places this week to No. 6 in the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings.

“His growth, his improvement, and his journey particularly the last six months has been amazing,” he said. “I praise his game without a doubt. He’s fantastic for our sport, no doubt. I think it’s great that we have a young player who is doing so well and giving a new fresh breath to the tennis world. Seeing that and knowing that he’s a very nice guy, very humble with good values, it’s a perfect combination.”

Nadal offered his own preview of the match in his post-match presser: “Carlos can win perfectly. I don’t see any reason why he cannot win,” he previewed. “It’s true that he cannot have the downside that he had in the second set, talking about today’s match… It’s true that Carlos plays a lot with adrenaline, with momentum. When adrenaline goes up, he’s practically unstoppable, but then in some moments he commits errors, but it’s logical because he plays with a lot of risk. It’s his way of playing, and in that sense I think he has the level to be able to win [against] anyone in the world.

“We will see what happens tomorrow. I guess it depends on who plays better.”

[2] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. [4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)

Zverev and Tsitsipas will contest a rematch of their Monte Carlo semi-final, which Tsitsipas dominated on the way to his second straight title in the Principality. The Greek, who did not know his semi-final opponent at the conclusion of a three-set win over Andrey Rublev on Friday, does not necessarily expect a repeat performance in the final rounds in Madrid.

“I had a good result [in Monte Carlo] but that doesn’t really mean anything for me,” he cautioned. “Madrid has it’s own challenges. Obviously a different climate, different conditions. I’m feeling great, to be honest, and I really hope that I can continue that way, playing so aggressive and being creative on the court.”

Two-time Madrid champion Zverev felt he played his best match in recent months in a straight-sets quarter-final win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, though eight second-set double faults made the match more complicated than he would have liked. But the German recovered well to close out the dangerous Canadian and maintained a positive outlook post-match as he continues his title defence.

He had high praise for his semi-final opponent as he looked ahead to the rematch: “Rafa is on his way back and Novak is starting to gain momentum, but right now maybe he’s the best clay-court player in the world,” Zverev said of Tsitsipas.

“I think I need to play my best level to have a chance, but I’m looking forward to this match because in Monte Carlo he beat me quite easily. I hope I can change that.”

Tsitsipas has notched an ATP Tour-leading 27 match wins this season, reaching the Australian Open semi-finals and the Rotterdam final in addition to his Monte Carlo success. But he is 1-2 against Top 10 opposition, with his victory over World No. 3 Zverev his best win by the Pepperstone ATP Rankings.

The German is seeking a sixth ATP Masters 1000 title and a 10th final appearance at that level. Two of those five trophies have come in Madrid, in 2018 and 2021. Outside of the Big 4, the 25-year-old has more ATP Masters 1000 titles than any active player. 

Doubles Semi-finals

Both men’s doubles semis are scheduled for Arantxa Sanchez Stadium, with three doubles-specialist duos and a team of singles stars fighting for the Madrid title.

A rematch of the Miami Open presented by Itau final opens play, with Hurkacz and Isner seeking another victory against seventh seeds Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski. Hurkacz and Isner have not teamed since that Miami win, while their opponents are coming off a heartbreaking match Tie-break loss in the Barcelona final. The new-look Dutch-British duo has won three titles and reached two finals since first teaming up in January.

Fifth-seeded Colombians Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah will meet eighth seeds Jamie Murray and Michael Venus in the second semi-final.