Brain Game: De Minaur Picked Wrong Fight Against Sinner

It was strictly a baseline brawl. Alex de Minaur managed one baseline winner in 105 points against Jannik Sinner. Strategically, it was the wrong fight to pick.

Sinner defeated De Minaur 6-4, 6-1 in the final of the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers on Sunday on the back of overpowering the Aussie from the back of the court. Both players had little interest in coming to the net to finish points. Sinner appeared at the net only four times (won 4/4), while De Minaur won 5/9 at the front of the court. He needed to camp there more often.

Both players elected to stay in their comfort zone from the back of the court, which provided the Italian with a huge strategic advantage. Sinner won an impressive 57 per cent (44/77) of points from the baseline, while De Minaur could only muster 39 per cent (28/72). This style of play was always going to favour the heavy-hitting Italian, as he could extract error after error from De Minaur in gruelling back-court exchanges.

Baseline Points Won
Set 1: Sinner = 52% (23/44); De Minaur = 44% (18/41)
Set 2: Sinner = 64% (21/33); De Minaur = 32% (10/31)
Total: Sinner = 57% (44/77); De Minaur = 39% (28/72)

The shot that broke down the most was De Minaur’s forehand, with 21 errors and a solitary winner. Sinner committed 18 forehand errors but collected four winners. Sinner’s primary pattern was to constantly attack De Minaur’s flat forehand, taking away his time to prepare his hands and feet correctly.

De Minaur’s backhand is typically a rock, but this side also bled more errors than usual. De Minaur committed 17 backhand errors, with no groundstroke winners. Sinner committed 14 backhand errors, with two winners. It didn’t matter whether the ball flowed through the Deuce or Ad court. Sinner was almost always the player leaning on the ball, while the Aussie was hard-pressed to apply the pressure necessary to force the errors he required.

Alex de Minaur was outgunned by Jannik Sinner in the Toronto final.” />

Average Groundstroke Speed
Forehands: Sinner = 127 km/h; De Minaur = 110 km/h
Backhands: Sinner = 120 km/h; De Minaur = 102 km/h

Sinner enjoyed an 18 kmph average speed difference with backhands and a 17 kmph average increase in forehand speed. With the ball constantly returning at a significantly faster speed than it left, De Minaur’s groundstroke game broke down as the match progressed.

Sinner was happy to blast his groundstrokes cross court all day long and generally avoid going down the line too much, staying away from lower percentage patterns of play.

Sinner Groundstroke Direction
Forehands = 65% cross court; Backhands = 67% cross court

De Minaur, on the other hand, clearly tried to play away from Sinner’s more potent forehand wing, avoiding Deuce court rallies where his forehand was directly pitted against Sinner’s.

De Minaur Groundstroke Direction
Forehands = 44% cross court; Backhands = 81% cross court

This was always going to be a tough match-up for De Minaur, as Sinner employs a similar back-court game style but with a lot more firepower. Running and defending for a living gets more challenging as you progress through the draw.

This is a well-deserved maiden Masters 1000 victory for Sinner. It’s also an excellent learning opportunity for De Minaur, as he must further develop his game to be more of an all-court threat or create more pressure from the back of the court, especially with depth, height and superior court position.

Sinner took home a Masters 1000 title. De Minaur took home the knowledge of the upgrades needed to capture one for himself in the near future.