Paul & De Minaur’s Huge Live Race Opportunity

Players who began the week well outside of Nitto ATP Finals contention could be in the thick of the battle in a few days.

Twelfth-placed Tommy Paul and 13th-placed Alex de Minaur would soar to ninth in the Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin by winning the Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships in Tokyo, where they have advanced to the quarter-finals.

None of the players between seventh and 11th places in the Live Race — Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud and Hubert Hurkacz — moved past the Round of 16 this week across events in Tokyo and Stockholm. That has given players with a seemingly slim chance to qualify for Turin a huge opportunity.

Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin Standings (19 Oct)

Paul and De Minaur could meet in the final of the ATP 500, which would prove a consequential clash in the Live Race. Paul would climb to 3,005 points with a title and De Minaur would reach 2,970 points. Holger Rune, who currently holds the eighth and final qualifying position, has 3,110 points.

With ATP 500 events next week in Basel and Vienna, followed by the season’s final ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris, that would give Paul and De Minaur ample chance to continue their charge.

Sixth-placed Stefanos Tsitsipas is into the quarter-finals in Antwerp, where he is solidifying his standing in the Live Race. The Greek is trying to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals for the fifth consecutive year.

Fifth-placed Andrey Rublev is not competing this week, but he is in a good position to earn his spot at the Pala Alpitour. The four players who have already qualified are Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner.