AO Draw: Expert Predictions

AO Draw: Expert Predictions

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

MELBOURNE, Australia – If you were a Top 10 player and survived the first two weeks of the season, well done. There were quite a few struck down by injury or illness.

One, of course, was Serena Williams.

A knee complaint hampered Williams at the Hopman Cup, but she says she’s feeling “great” ahead of the Australian Open.

The first week could tell us much about the state of Williams, who is chasing a 22nd Grand Slam title to equal Steffi Graf for the Open Era record.

First quarter: Serena’s tough start

On paper, it’s a tough start for Serena. She landed Camila Giorgi, who just missed out on a seeding ranked 35th. By now, many of you know that the rather diminutive Italian punches above her weight when it comes to ball striking: She’s indeed one of the hardest hitters on the tour.

And I repeat: She’s Italian.

Didn’t some Italian upset Williams at the U.S. Open? (It was, admittedly, a different type of player in Roberta Vinci.)  If Williams’ knee is less than 100 percent, players less potent than Giorgi could trouble the world No. 1, so this really should indicate where Williams is at. A fully healthy Williams or close to it and the 34-year-old should feed off Giorgi’s pace – not to mention create some of her own.

Two opponents who have troubled Williams in the past loom lower down in the quarter, Caroline Wozniacki, Belinda Bencic and Sydney winner Svetlana Kuznetsova . If the Dane, Williams’ great pal, doesn’t beat Williams, she always seems to take a set. Bencic stunned Williams last summer, with Kuznetsova and Williams going to three sets in all three of their Slam tussles.

One player who hasn’t bothered Williams much in the past is Maria Sharapova.
Should Williams be knocked out prior to the quarterfinals, Sharapova, especially, could prosper. But then, Sharapova has had her own injury problems. Sharapova and Bencic (a slow starter in 2015) could go head-to-head in the fourth round.

Prediction: Williams

Second quarter: Aga-Genie blockbuster?

A couple of things stand out in the second quarter. One is that eight qualifiers landed in the section. Yes, eight.

But the real eye-catcher is the potential second-round clash between Agnieszka Radwanska and Eugenie Bouchard. For both, it’s a pivotal time, but especially Radwanska.

Seeking that maiden Grand Slam crown, the Pole has as much momentum as anyone on the tour, having triumphed at the year-end championships and winning a warmup event in Shenzhen.  In Singapore in November, Radwanska became the first women’s player since Amelie Mauresmo in 2005 to grab the crown without yet being a Grand Slam champion. Mauresmo, though, won two the following season.
Radwanska would take one to begin with. Radwanska served extremely well in Shenzhen, striking nine aces in the final and coming up with good serves when in trouble. A continuation of that and she might make a deep run in Melbourne.

Then again, Bouchard could have something to say about that. The Canadian has started the season well, particularly in Hobart, and enters Melbourne as likely the most dangerous unseeded player. Vinci and Auckland winner Sloane Stephens are heading for a third-round clash, and with their different games, it would be a fascinating one to watch.

Farther down in the quarter, if Petra Kvitova faces Aussie Daria Gavrilova in the second round, that has upset written all over it. Kvitova has yet to see action this year. Gavrilova to encounter 2014 Australian Open finalist Dominika Cibulkova in the third round?

Prediction: Radwanska

Third quarter: Vika to maintain form?

Azarenka’s artistic side was there for all to see in a video she released – the Belorussian made it with her friends back home in Minsk – last week. For Azarenka, it’s all about maximising her brand in different ways, both inside and outside the court.  When it comes to her tennis, she can have no complaints. Hindered by a foot injury in 2014 and still not 100% last year, the two-time Aussie Open champ has looked very sharp to commence 2016. Not only did Azarenka win the title in Brisbane, but she did it without much fuss.

But are we reading too much into her success, since she didn’t have to face players such as Sharapova, Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza?

Azarenka could have a rematch with Samantha Crawford, the American who was the surprise of the tournament in Brisbane, in the second round and the first seed she could confront is Ukrainian Elina Svitolina. Svitolina made nice progress in 2015, but questions remain as to whether she can defeat top-10 players on a regular basis without a major weapon.

Muguruza, at No. 3, is actually the highest seed in the quarter. Foot troubles forced Muguruza to retire in Brisbane; lurking in the second round for the Wimbledon finalist is upset artist Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. 

Up at the top of the quarter, if the seeds continue to win, it’s Angelique Kerber versus Timea Bacsinszky in the fourth round. The path to get there for the German and Swiss is gentle, though the latter has yet to rediscover her form of last year, perhaps due to the knee injury she sustained in October.

Prediction: Azarenka

Fourth quarter: Halep’s time?

Halep, working in tandem with coach Darren Cahill, is attempting to make changes to her game. We know the Romanian can counterpunch with the best of them – she perennially features on highlight-reels soaking up pressure – but the world No. 2 wants to become more aggressive and not simply rely on her stellar movement.

Unfortunately for Halep, a lingering Achilles injury has limited not only her match play but also practice time. Still, her fans will be encouraged by her performance in Sydney. It didn’t look good early for Halep, though she persevered and advanced to the semifinals. Halep, at times, was overpowered in 2015, and her quarter is stacked with yet more power players: Venus Williams, Karolina Pliskova, Ana Ivanovic, Sabine Lisicki, Madison Keys and Lesia Tsurenko.

Alize Cornet wouldn’t be classified as a power player but she knows how to oust big names at big tournaments, and the in-form Frenchwoman would no doubt relish the opportunity to take on Halep in round two. Tsurenko is the first seed Halep could battle and even if it’s not the Ukrainian, it might well be another dangerous foe in Varvara Lepchenko.

Venus Williams will hope Auckland was a minor blip after a terrific 2015. Her first round is interesting – the elder Williams sister plays one of the tour’s breakthrough performers in 2015, Johanna Konta.

Prediction: Venus Williams

Semifinals: Serena Williams, Azarenka

Winner: Azarenka

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