Battle Lines Drawn For No. 1 In Emirates ATP Rankings

The battleground for No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings is beginning to take shape. The picture will become clearer over the next two weeks as to whether Andy Murray is to remain in top spot.

Here are the key scenarios for the four players in contention for No. 1 on 17 July, the Monday after Wimbledon concludes…

• Andy Murray will remain No. 1 by reaching his fourth Wimbledon final;
• Rafael Nadal will return to No. 1 by reaching his sixth Wimbledon final;
• Stan Wawrinka will debut at No. 1 by winning his first Wimbledon title;
• Novak Djokovic will return to No. 1 by winning his fourth Wimbledon title, but only if both Murray and Nadal lose before the semi-finals.

Emirates ATP Rankings Points Totals On 17 July By Wimbledon Results

World No. 1 Murray, who lost his opening match at last week’s Aegon Championships, where he had been the defending champion, currently has a 2,105 points lead over No. 2-ranked Rafael Nadal (7,285) in the 52-week Emirates ATP Rankings. But the Scot has 2,000 points dropping off as defending champion at Wimbledon, which begins on 3 July.

So, with a two-week time horizon, Murray’s effective lead over the Spaniard is a mere 105 points.

Should Nadal perform well at SW19 and continue his strong run of form, which includes winning 24 of his past 25 matches, then there will be a battle royale for No. 1. The left-hander must reach at least the fourth round to have a chance of rising to No. 1. If seedings hold and Murray and Nadal meet in the semi-finals, the winner of that match will be No. 1 after Wimbledon.

Nadal, the 2008 and 2010 Wimbledon champion, does not have any points to defend through to mid-August. Last year, the Spaniard was forced out of tournaments that awarded Emirates ATP Rankings points, due to a left wrist injury, from 26 May to 17 August 2016.

Murray has spent the past 34 weeks at No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings since first attaining the top spot on 7 November 2016. Nadal has spent a total of 141 weeks – in three separate stints – at No. 1, but was last at the summit of men’s professional tennis on 6 July 2014.

View Latest Emirates ATP Rankings

World No. 3 Wawrinka must win the title to have a chance of usurping No. 1. The Swiss, who has brought on board Paul Annacone, the former coach of Pete Sampras and Roger Federer, for the 2017 grass-court swing, is defending just 45 points after a 2016 Wimbledon second-round exit. He is drawn in Murray’s quarter. Should Wawrinka win the title, it would mean that Murray could not advance beyond the quarters and Nadal could go no farther than the semis. Should Wawrinka meet Djokovic in the final, that match would decide No. 1.

Djokovic, who dropped out of the Top 2 on 12 June for the first time since 4 July 2011, on Saturday won the Aegon International in Eastbourne – his first ATP World Tour grass-court event prior to Wimbledon since 2010 London-Queen’s Club. 

While Djokovic will lose 90 points from his tally of 5,805 points for his 2016 Wimbledon third-round exit, like Wawrinka, the Serbian must win Wimbledon to stand a chance of returning to No. 1. For Djokovic to add to his 223 weeks at No. 1, he would have to win the title and have Murray and Nadal lose in the quarter-finals (or earlier).

While still in contention for year-end No. 1 honours, seven-time tournament champion Roger Federer cannot move into top spot after Wimbledon, despite capturing his ninth trophy at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle last week. 

Wimbledon’s grass is cut to eight millimetres, and by 17 July – when the post-Championships’ Emirates ATP Rankings are published, a similarly fine margin may be all that separates the contenders for No. 1.