Brain Game: One-Shot Rallies Prove Critical In Cincy Final
Brain Game: One-Shot Rallies Prove Critical In Cincy Final
Just one ball in the court.
Novak Djokovic defeated Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4 in the final of the Western & Southern Open on Sunday with a one-shot rally accounting for a staggering 50 (39%) of the 130 points played.
Djokovic and Federer won 25 points each in the rally length of one shot, but collected them in very different ways.
Djokovic: One-Shot Rallies Won
• 4 aces
• 21 return errors from Federer (11 backhand / 10 forehand).
Federer: One-Shot Rallies Won
• 11 aces
• 14 return errors from Djokovic (8 forehand / 6 backhand).
Second-Serve Performance
Federer’s second serve return was often out of sync in the match, and he uncharacteristically missed more second-serve returns (11) than first-serve returns (10). Part of that was due to Djokovic going for more speed than normal on his second serve.
In the opening set, Djokovic’s average second serve speed was 98mph, slightly ahead of Federer’s 97mph. In the second set, Djokovic’s second serve speed dropped all the way down to 90mph, while Federer dialed his up to 102mph, trying to formulate a winning game plan.
Djokovic won an impressive 78 per cent (14/18) of his second-serve points for the match, which was considerably higher than his 2018 average of 54 per cent (638/1117) coming into the tournament.
Federer leads the tour with second-serve points won in 2018 at 62 per cent (642/1039), but that number got hammered down to just 47 per cent (15/32) against Djokovic in the final.
A head-turning stat from the match was that the average rally length behind Djokovic’s first serve was four shots, but that dropped down to just two shots behind second serves. Federer also averaged four shots behind his first serve, but the rally length climbed up to five shots behind his second serve.
The overall average rally length for shots in the final was a brisk 3.4 shots. Two shots in play for the server, but on average just one for the returner.
Two Shots In The Court
Djokovic won 12 more points than Federer for the match (71 to 59) with 10 of these coming in the rally length of two shots in the court. That means that either the returner hit a winner, or more likely, that the server missed their first shot after the serve, which was either a groundstroke or a volley.
2018 Cincinnati Final: Breakdown of Rally Length & Points Played / Won
|
Rally Length (Shots In) |
Total Points Played |
Federer Won |
Djokovic Won |
|
0 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
|
1 |
50 |
25 |
25 |
|
2 |
16 |
3 |
13 |
|
3 |
11 |
5 |
6 |
|
4 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
|
5 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
|
6 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
|
7 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
8 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
|
9+ |
9 |
4 |
5 |
|
TOTAL |
130 |
59 |
71 |
A contributing factor to Djokovic’s 10-point advantage in the rally length of two shots was the superior speed with which he hit returns back to Federer.
Average 1st Serve Return Speed
• Djokovic = 61mph
• Federer = 55mph
Average 2nd Serve Return Speed
• Djokovic = 66mph
• Federer = 64mph
Once a rally did evolve, both players looked to control the baseline with more forehands than backhands.
Djokovic Groundstrokes
• Total Forehands = 74 (average speed 71mph)
• Total Backhands = 65 (average speed 68mph)
Federer Groundstrokes
• Total Forehands = 83 (average speed 73mph)
• Total Backhands = 72 (average speed 66mph)
Djokovic played four consecutive three-set matches to reach the final, often having to battle from behind in the match as he searched for his peak form. It turned up on Sunday in spades.