You may have seen the bumper sticker that reads, “the worst day fishing is better than the best day working”. Along the same lines, is your worst day returning second serves still statistically better than your best day returning first serves? 

To be specific, if you looked at your second-serve return performance from only the matches you lost, would the average be higher than your first-serve return win percentage from only the matches you won? The fishing analogy rings true for our sport as well as the worst day returning second serves is still significantly better than the best day returning first serves. 

This Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis looks at five seasons from 2015-2019 and includes players that have played a minimum of 50 matches. Players in the data set averaged winning 53.3 per cent (173,783/325,771) of second-serve return points when they won their match, with that average dropping down to 44.5 per cent (122,172/274,276) when they lost the match.

But 44.5 per cent, which is a bad day at the office for second-serve returns, is still significantly superior to 32.3 per cent, which is a great day at the office returning against first serves. The gap is 12.2 per cent, which is essentially night and day.

The following table highlights average points won against first and second serves when players won and lost matches.

Average Points Won When Winning & Losing The Match 2015-2019

When players were triumphant in their matches, nobody dominated returning serve more in the past five seasons than Diego Schwartzman. Against second serves, the Argentine averaged winning 60 per cent (2713/4524) in matches that he won from 2015-2019, with 23 of his 135 victories above the 70 per cent threshold for second-serve return points won.

Schwartzman was also the leader with first-serve return points won when winning the match at 37.9 per cent (2469/6517). The players, which led the statistical categories when winning and losing matches are listed below.

Winning The Match
• No. 1: First-serve return points won = Diego Schwartzman 37.9% (2469/6517)
• No. 1: Second-serve return points won = Diego Schwartzman 60.0% (2713/4524)

Losing The Match
• No. 1: First-serve return points won = Marton Fucsovics 28.1% (877/3123)
• No. 1: Second-serve return points won = Yoshihito Nishioka 49.8% (767/1541)

Looking at match data through a different lens such as this provides new clarity for coaches and players to identify what matters most to win a match and to better organise their practice court. The first serve is the “big hammer” in our sport and even an outstanding performance returning in this area averages winning only about one in every three points.  

It is mission almost impossible. Bringing up a break point against Rafael Nadal’s serve is a commendable achievement. 

Good luck converting it, especially when competing on Campo Centrale at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal saving break points at clay court ATP Masters 1000 events shows he is tougher to break in Rome than Monte Carlo or Madrid. 

Break Points Saved: Clay-Court Masters 1000 Events
• Rome = 74.6% (303/406)
• Monte Carlo = 73.9% (394/533)
• Madrid = 73.4% (298/406) 

Nadal returned to action on Campo Centrale for his first tour-level match in 200 days on Wednesday. He immediately faced break-point after losing the deuce point in his opening service game against Pablo Carreno Busta after failing to take advantage of a 40-0 lead. 

Nadal has saved 303 break points in Rome in his career, but all you really need to witness is this one break point to know exactly what his primary strategy is in this important moment. Carreno Busta had to weigh up whether Nadal would go with his preferred “can-opener” slicing lefty serve out wide to pull him off the court, or surprise with a body serve or a delivery straight down the T. 

Overall in his career when serving at break point in the Ad court (0-40, 30-40, ad-out) at Masters 1000 clay-court events against right-handers, Nadal has gone with his favourite serve out wide almost twice as often as his next highest option, down the T.

Nadal Career: Serving Break Point At Clay-Court Masters 1000 vs. Right-Handers
• Wide = 53%
• Body = 21%
• T = 26%

Wide is the most likely, and the probability of a wide serve naturally rises the more pressure involved in the moment as it is the most comfortable and reliable serve for Nadal. The first break point faced in 200 days certainly met all the above criteria for a wide serve.

Carreno Busta took up his return position on the point with just his left foot in the alley. To visually shut down the wide serve, it needed to be much wider than that.

Nadal Serving Break Point: Carreno Busta’s Return Position 

Should Carreno Busta have stood wider with both feet in the alley? For the first point of the following game, Nadal’s return location mirrored the position of the break point with a righty serving against a lefty in the deuce court.

Nadal positioned himself there to visually take away the wide slice serve. This in turn attracts more serves to his forehand return.

Nadal Return Position To Take Away A Right-Hander’s Slice Serve

Serving at ad-out, Nadal indeed opted for the highest percentage serve. He sent down a 114mph snarling slice serve out wide. 

Carreno Busta was pulled to his left and was standing with two feet outside the doubles line to make contact with the return. He was now standing closer to the side fence than the singles court and netted the return.

Nadal Serving Break Point: Carreno Busta’s Contact Position 

That was the only break point that Carreno Busta saw for the match, as Nadal raced away to a 6-1, 6-1 victory in 73 minutes. Nadal is shooting for a 10th title in Rome this week. In 67 matches leading into this year’s event, he has not faced a break point in nine matches and has saved all break points faced in 16 matches. 

Converting break point against Nadal on the Roman “terre battue” of Campo Centrale is without doubt one of the toughest tests our sport has to offer.

Rafael Nadal flags “a couple of things” he needs to improve as his bid for a 10th Internazionali BNL d’Italia title builds momentum. It could sound alarm bells for No. 8 seed Diego Schwartzman when the pair meets in the quarter-finals on Saturday.

No. 2 seed Nadal conceded just six games total in his first two matches, despite not having played in more than six months. The No. 2 seed holds a perfect 9-0 ATP Head2Head record against the Argentine – including 22 of 24 sets.

The Spaniard backed up his comfortable dismissal of US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta with a 6-1, 6-3 result against Serb Dusan Lajovic on Friday. He has won an impressive 73 per cent (11/15) of his return games to reach his 93rd Masters 1000 quarter-final.

“I need to keep working on a couple of things that are not coming automatically, but I can’t ask for more,” Nadal said following his win over Lajovic. “[It was] another great evening for me against another good opponent. Can’t complain at all. Much better [than] what I expected.”

Most Wins In Rome (Open Era)

Schwartzman made a deep run in Rome last year, when he reached the semi-finals with straight-sets victories over Kei Nishikori and Matteo Berrettini en route. The 28-year-old rallied from a break down in the final set to edge past Pole Hubert Hurkacz 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the third round.

“[It] always has been very tough and tricky matches against him,” Nadal said. “I know I have to play very well if I want to have chances and that’s what I’m going to try [to do].”

Nadal and No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic will break their tied record should either win the title in Rome for a 36th Masters 1000 trophy. In an all-Serbian third-round clash, four-time champion Djokovic defeated Filip Krajinovic 7-6(7), 6-3 on Friday to set a quarter-final against German Dominik Koepfer, the first qualifier to advance as far since 2009.

The 33-year-old has now won 28 of his 29 matches this year, including title runs at the Australian Open, Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and Western & Southern Open. Koepfer, No. 97 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, has enjoyed a breakout week and is on a six-match winning streak, including his three victories in the qualifying rounds, in the Italian capital.

Having won through qualifying, he saved a match point to beat Alex de Minaur, then registered his first Top 10 win over Gael Monfils to reach the third round. There he ended the hopes of #NextGenATP Italian qualifier Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-0 on Friday.

An Open Era record-equalling four Italians made it to the Round of 16 in Rome, but only one survived – their highest-ranked, No. 4 seed Berrettini. The 24-year-old eked out a tight 7-6(5), 7-6(1) contest against compatriot Stefano Travaglia. 

Berrettini would become the first Italian man to reach the Rome semi-finals since Filippo Volandri in 2007 with a victory over Norwegian Casper Ruud next. The pair split two prior ATP Head2Head encounters – Ruud a winner on clay at Roland Garros last year and Berrettini a third-round victor in last month’s US Open.

Ruud followed in his father’s footsteps in reaching his maiden Masters 1000 quarter-final on Friday, with a 6-2, 7-6(6) win over 2018 Rome semi-finalist Marin Cilic. Christian Ruud made the 1997 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters quarter-finals. 

A semi-finalist in Rome six years ago, Grigor Dimitrov had to dig deep to end the run of 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals champion, Jannik Sinner, on Friday. The Bulgarian No. 15 seed rebounded from a set and a break down for a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 win over the 19-year-old wild card. 

He will carry a 2-0 ATP Head2Head ledger into his quarter-final showdown against No. 12 seed Denis Shapovalov, a player unbeaten in four Masters 1000 quarter-finals. The Canadian avenged January’s ASB Classic loss in Auckland to Ugo Humbert with a 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-4 victory on Friday.

ORDER OF PLAY – FRIDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2020

CENTRALE start 12:00 pm
WTA Match

Not Before 2:30 pm
[1] Novak Djokovic v [Q] Dominic Koepfer

Not Before 7:00 pm
WTA Match

Not Before 8:30 pm
[8] Diego Schwartzman v [2] Rafael Nadal

PIETRANGELI start 12:00 pm
[4] Matteo Berrettini v Casper Ruud

Not Before 2:00 pm
WTA Match
WTA Match

Not Before 6:00 pm
[12] Denis Shapovalov v [15] Grigor Dimitrov

Click here to view the full Internazionali BNL d’Italia Saturday schedule.

Dominik Koepfer says attending Tulane University beginning in Fall 2012 was an easy choice because he, “didn’t really have one”. It was the only Division I institution to offer him a spot on its team.

“I went to college, but wasn’t very good. I would say I was pretty terrible the first year,” Koepfer said. “But I started to work my way up.”

Eight years later, the German is living his dream as a professional tennis player. For someone who barely was able to find a college landing spot, he is doing pretty well for himself. Koepfer will play World No. 1 Novak Djokovic on Saturday in the quarter-finals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia.

Koepfer had never played an ATP Masters 1000 main draw match before this week in Rome. The World No. 97 won three three-setters to qualify and has only gotten better since. The lefty saved a match point against Alex de Minaur in the first round before stunning fifth seed Gael Monfils in the second round and ending home favourite Lorenzo Musetti’s dream run in the Round of 16. This will be his first ATP Tour quarter-final.

Koepfer Discusses Win Against Monfils:

But this isn’t the first time Koepfer has made a nice run at a big event. Last year, he qualified for the US Open and battled to the fourth round, in which he played eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev. The German pushed the red-hot Russian to a fourth-set tie-break before succumbing. That was first match against a Top 10 opponent.

“I knew going into the match against Medvedev that it wasn’t going to be easy,” Koepfer said. “He was one of the hottest players out there and he doesn’t lose much, so being up a set and a break, I thought I played well throughout the entire match. I was just not as physical anymore.

“Obviously it was my seventh match [including qualifying] and I didn’t have many days off before… so it was hard for me to battle through it, but I thought I did a good job. I was happy with the level and obviously walking out of the stadium, people cheering, it was a great experience I’ll never forget.”

It hasn’t always been easy getting to this point. Koepfer first broke into the Top 100 of the FedEx ATP Rankings last September when he was 25.

“The first year as a pro was different. I had bad habits from college, eating whatever I wanted,” Koepfer said. “I realised that to compete with the top guys, you have to be fit and ready to compete every day. Things definitely changed over the past year.”

A lot of credit for that goes to his coach, Rhyne Williams, another former college player (University of Tennessee) who reached World No. 114 in 2013. They began working together in November 2018, and Koepfer has been on an upwards trajectory ever since.

“He’s worked his butt off every day, making great decisions off the court especially,” Williams said of his charge. “He’s a beast in the gym and eats the right foods.”

Koepfer, who didn’t play tennis more than twice a week until he was 16 because of skiing and golf, has honed in on his mental game.

“I do a lot of daily routines: waking up, meditating, writing down things and before matches, after matches, I write down a lot of things,” Koepfer said. “I obviously talk to [my mental coach] once or twice a week on the phone for an hour or two and then [we] text back and forth and just put the daily effort into it and having routines. [That] is what makes a difference.”

The 26-year-old won’t shy away from the moment facing Djokovic.

“I think the biggest strength I have is my fighting spirit. I think I learned that in juniors playing club tennis, playing for other people and then moving onto college tennis, where the team spirit is unbelievable. Everyone plays for each other,” Koepfer said. “I took that from college into the professional level and I’m still thinking that I could improve on that… I think I’m a very good fighter and I want to give my opponent the hardest time out there.”

Koepfer is projected to reach a career-high FedEx ATP Ranking next week. An upset of Djokovic would see the German soar even higher.

“The biggest dream was to become a Top 100 tennis player, which I’ve achieved,” Koepfer said. “Now I need to set myself new goals and I’m still working on that. Definitely Top 50, definitely competing at the highest level, competing at Grand Slams and playing the best players in the world.”

Jurgen Melzer and Edouard Roger-Vasselin needed just 53 minutes to book their place in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia semi-finals on Friday.

The unseeded duo saved each of the three break points it faced to defeat Australian Open finalists Max Purcell and Luke Saville 6-1, 6-1. After saving three match points in their opening match against Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi and Stefanos Tsitsipas on Wednesday, Melzer and Roger-Vasselin have dropped only eight games across their past two matches.

The Dubai semi-finalists are attempting to reach their first final as a team. Melzer and Roger-Vasselin will face Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin in the semi-finals. The Frenchmen recovered from a set down to beat Rohan Bopanna and Denis Shapovalov 4-6, 7-5, 10-7.

Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos saved one match point to defeat US Open champions Mate Pavic and Bruno Soares 4-6, 7-6(7), 10-6 in just under two hours. The fourth seeds are chasing their third team title of the year, following back-to-back triumphs on clay at the Argentina Open and Rio Open presented by Claro in February.

Soares and Pavic entered the contest on a seven-match winning streak. They were attempting to capture their second ATP Masters 1000 crown as a team (2019 Rolex Shanghai Masters).

Granollers and Zeballos, who reached the Generali Open final in Kitzbühel last week, will face John Peers and Michael Venus in the semi-finals. Peers and Venus needed 73 minutes to overcome Italian wild cards Lorenzo Sonego and Andrea Vavassori 6-3, 3-6, 10-7.

Rafael Nadal is in top form at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, his first tournament since February.

The nine-time champion cruised past 2019 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters finalist Dusan Lajovic 6-1, 6-3 on Friday to reach his 15th Rome quarter-final.

“I played at I think a very positive level of tennis. Of course it needs to keep improving. I need to keep working on a couple of things that are not coming automatically.
But I can’t ask for more,” Nadal said. “[It was] another great evening for me against another good opponent. Can’t complain at all. Much better [than] what I expected.”

Nadal has only lost six games in his first two matches, including a 6-1, 6-1 triumph against US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta on Wednesday. The Spaniard has won an impressive 73 per cent (11/15) of his return games to reach his 93rd Masters 1000 quarter-final. 

“The first set it was 6-1, but a super tough beginning of the match. A lot of good points,” Nadal said. “[I’m] very happy, it’s an important victory for me after such a long time. To start the tournament with these two victories is great news.”

Lajovic is a dangerous clay-court foe. Last season, the Serbian reached the Monte Carlo final and lifted his maiden ATP Tour trophy on Umag’s clay. But Nadal never allowed the World No. 25 to get going on Court Centrale, manoeuvring him around the court as if he had him on a string. The second seed was firing with his forehand and struck his cross-court backhand well to keep Lajovic on the move.

“I know Dusan can play great shots. He’s a player with a lot of spin, a lot of power in the hand,” Nadal said. “I needed the consistency. I needed to let him play from the back, not from comfortable positions.”

The shot of the match came at 2-1 in the first set. Lajovic hit a kick serve out wide that nearly put the legendary lefty into the flower boxes on the side of the court, but Nadal responded by crushing a down-the-line return winner to break serve. Lajovic battled hard, winning three consecutive games from 1-6, 0-4 down by improving his court positioning, but it was too little, too late. Nadal quickly halted his momentum, holding and then breaking at love to close out his 90-minute win.

The World No. 2 leads Lajovic 3-0 in their ATP Head2Head series. He has won seven of their eight sets by a margin of 6-3 or greater.

Nadal will next face eighth seed Diego Schwartzman, who rallied past dangerous Pole Hubert Hurkacz 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 after two hours and nine minutes. The Spaniard leads their rivalry 9-0, with seven of those victories coming in straight sets.

“[It] always has been very tough and tricky matches against him,” Nadal said. “I know I have to play very well if I want to have chances and that’s what I’m going to try [to do].”

Diego Schwartzman” />

Schwartzman has enjoyed success in Rome, reaching the semi-finals last year with straight-set triumphs against Kei Nishikori and Matteo Berrettini. The Argentine trailed Hurkacz by a break in the third set, but he battled back under the lights.

Did You Know?
Nadal and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic both own 35 Masters 1000 titles. If either man triumphs in Rome, they will stand alone atop the Masters 1000 title leaderboard.

Novak Djokovic advanced to the Internazionali BNL d’Italia quarter-finals for the 14th straight year on Friday, following his 7-6(7), 6-3 victory against countryman Filip Krajinovic.

The 33-year-old saved five of six break points to improve to 14-0 in third-round matches at the ATP Masters 1000 event after two hours and seven minutes. Djokovic struggled to take his chances in an 87-minute opening set, but raised his level in the second set to maintain his perfect record of quarter-final appearances in the Italian capital.

“It was definitely one of the longest sets I think I have ever played,” said Djokovic. “Never easy, I think, emotionally to play against someone that is one of my best friends for many years… I think the first set could have gone a different way, as well.

“Fortunately for me it went my way, and that allowed me to swing through the ball a bit more in the second set. Maybe physically and mentally he dropped a level, and I used my opportunities and capitalised to win in straight sets.”

The four-time champion has now won 28 of his 29 matches this year, highlighted by title runs at the Australian Open, Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and Western & Southern Open.

Djokovic is aiming to break a tie with fellow 35-time Masters 1000 champion Rafael Nadal by lifting his 36th crown at the level this week. The World No. 1 equalled Nadal’s record Masters 1000 trophy haul last month by completing the Career Golden Masters for a second time at the Western & Southern Open. No other singles player has achieved the feat once.

More than 10 years after their only previous ATP Head2Head contest in Belgrade, Djokovic and Krajinovic traded breaks to open their third-round clash on Centrale. Djokovic attacked his opponent’s forehand and attempted to break up play with drop shots throughout the first set, but could not execute that game plan when holding two set points at 5-4 on Krajinovic’s serve.

Krajinovic moved up the court well to finish points and establish a 4/1 lead in the tie-break, before Djokovic charged back by dictating rallies with his forehand and serving with added power. The 33-year-old converted his fifth set point when Krajinovic committed a forehand error. Both players won 61 points throughout the set, which lasted 87 minutes.

Djokovic found success early in the second set, driving forehands down the line to break serve at 1-1. The 17-time Grand Slam champion maintained his advantage to reach 5-3 and played with consistency from the baseline to break serve for a third time.

The Serbian, who tied Pete Sampras’ tally of 286 weeks as the No. 1 player in the FedEx ATP Rankings on Monday, will face Dominik Koepfer of Germany for the first time for a place in the semi-finals.

Koepfer became the first qualifier to reach the quarter-finals in Rome in 11 years, beating #NextGenATP Italian Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-0. Following in the footsteps of 2009 quarter-finalists Juan Monaco and Mischa Zverev, the 26-year-old was clinical in crucial moments. Koepfer saved all five break points he faced and converted each of his four break points en route to victory.

Koepfer was forced to save match point in his opening match at this event against Alex de Minaur. The lefty then upset fifth seed Gael Monfils in the second round to earn his maiden Top 10 win. The World No. 97 is making his debut in the main draw at a Masters 1000 event this week.

Musetti entered the tournament seeking his first ATP Tour victory. The 18-year-old upset Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori in straight sets to reach the third round. As a result of his performances in Rome, Musetti will crack the Top 200 in the FedEx ATP Rankings for the first time. The 6’1” right-hander will be the second-youngest player inside the Top 200, behind 17-year-old Carlos Alcaraz of Spain (No. 186).

For a player as experienced as Grigor Dimitrov, once touted as the next big thing, he knows about hard graft and, ultimately, beginning to fulfill potential.

The former World No. 3 believes Jannik Sinner, whom be beat 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 on Friday at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, should follow his own path and not get carried away by the hype surrounding the 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals champion.

“I always say until you become a champion, you can’t say you’re a champion,” said Dimitrov. “This is, I would say, one of the biggest mistakes when I was upcoming, when everyone was telling me, ‘Oh, you’re going to be a champion one day. You’re going to be No. 1.’

“I never listen to those things. He should not listen to all of that. He should follow his way. I have noticed a few of his games in the past year, even when he played in the Next Gen [ATP Finals]. What I like [is that] he’s already a very strong guy, meaning his legs are very strong already for his age. So, I feel, he can only get better.

“I think Riccardo [Piatti] is doing a great job with him. I think time can only tell for him. I think that’s just how it is… I think on hard [courts] he’s playing really well. Even on clay today, I thought it was a very good match on his end.”

Sinner, 19, was attempting to become the first Italian teenager to reach the Rome quarter-finals at the Foro Italico.

Dimitrov was a successful junior, winning the 2008 Wimbledon and US Open junior titles, but he didn’t compile his best season as a pro until 2017, when he captured his first ATP Masters 1000 crown at the Western & Southern Open (d. Kyrgios) and lifted the biggest trophy of his career at the Nitto ATP Finals (d. Goffin).

“When I was 19, 20, or 21, I was this skinny kid that didn’t have enough of my body to be able to compete against the big guys,” said 29-year-old Dimitrov. “Now, all of a sudden, you come out and you have these guys, they are 19, 20, 21, [and] already so well developed that this already plays a big role in the game.

“But I always say tennis is not a sprint. Tennis is a marathon. It’s going to be here and there, you’re going to have matches that you’re just going to win with experience.

“I think, in a way, that’s what happened today. I know what it is to be 19 years old and you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. You come out and you’re so loose in your shots and you make unbelievable plays at the toughest times.

“For the older guys, it’s not the easiest sort of way to compete against. For sure, we’re going to have more pressure, but that’s… why this suits us a little bit more, because we can lean on the experience. We can kind of go deep down in that zone and be more aware of whatever situation we need to face.”

Dimitrov will next face No. 12 seed Denis Shapovalov on Saturday, attempting to reach the Rome semi-finals for a second time (also 2014).