Daniil Medvedev will face a tricky opponent in his first clay-court match of 2020 when he plays Frenchman Ugo Humbert in the opening round of the Hamburg European Open.

The Russian is fresh off his run to the semi-finals of the US Open, but he will have to find his clay feet quickly against an in-form opponent who defeated Kevin Anderson and Fabio Fognini at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. This will be their first ATP Head2Head meeting. The lefty Humbert does well to keep play on his terms, but the 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals competitor will have to work hard to finish off points against the top seed.

Medvedev is making his first appearance in Hamburg since 2016 when he was 20. Four years ago, then-World No. 215, Medvedev qualified and reached the second round of the main draw. The top seed will pursue his maiden ATP Tour title on clay. Last year, he made the semi-finals of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters.

The first seeded player Medvedev could face is 2013 champion Fognini, the sixth seed. The Italian begins his tournament against German wild card Philipp Kohlschreiber.

View Hamburg Draw

Medvedev isn’t the only tournament favourite to face a tough first-round match. Second seed Stefanos Tsitsipas will play British No. 1 Daniel Evans. The Greek won their only previous clash 6-2, 6-3 in Dubai earlier this year.

Evans will make Tsitsipas think hard throughout their match, though. The World No. 33 is not known for his clay-court game, but he uses a great variety of pace and spins to manoeuvre the ball around the court and keep opponents off balance. Both players will be looking to get back on track after losing their opening match in Rome.

One of the matches to watch in the first round is between fourth seed Roberto Bautista Agut and two-time defending champion Nikoloz Basilashvili. It will be a classic match-up of offence against defence, as Basilashvili will try to blast his way through the always stout defences of Bautista Agut. The other seeded player in their quarter is fifth seed Andrey Rublev, who opens against a qualifier.

The Spaniard leads their ATP Head2Head series 2-1, with the Georgian winning their most recent match in Dubai last year. This will be Bautista Agut’s first clay-court match since the ATP Tour resumed in August. Basilashvili will try to improve his 10-1 record in Hamburg.

#NextGenATP Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime will play Italian Lorenzo Sonego, who defeated Basilashvili in Rome. The winner will play seventh seed Diego Schwartzman — who plays Rafael Nadal in the Rome quarter-finals — or Spaniard Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Third seed Gael Monfils will try to earn his first victory of the ATP Tour’s resumption when he battles wild card Yannick Hanfmann. The German reached his second tour-level final last week in Kitzbühel, where he was a qualifier.

Former World No. 4 Kei Nishikori will face a tough test against Chilean Cristian Garin, who has won all four of his ATP Tour titles on clay. Eighth seed Karen Khachanov will try to battle through an all-power match against German Jan-Lennard Struff. Their two ATP Head2Head meetings have gone to a deciding set, with each man winning once.

Novak Djokovic advanced to his 11th Internazionali BNL d’Italia semi-final on Saturday, beating Dominik Koepfer 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.

The four-time champion won 68 per cent of second-serve return points (27/40) and created 21 break points en route to recording his 29th victory in 30 matches this year. Djokovic, who has reached the last eight in Rome each year since 2007, improves to 11-3 in Rome quarter-finals. The Serbian has now won seven straight quarter-final matches at the ATP Masters 1000 event, dating back to his loss to Tomas Berdych at this stage in 2013.

Djokovic is now two wins away from lifting a record-breaking 36th Masters 1000 crown. The 33-year-old tied Rafael Nadal’s tally of 35 titles at the level by completing his second Career Golden Masters at the Western & Southern Open last month.

Koepfer was making his main draw debut at a Masters 1000 event this week. The German saved one match point to earn his first ATP Tour victory on clay against Alex de Minaur and clinched his first Top 10 victory against Gael Monfils in the second round. Koepfer is the first qualifier to reach the quarter-finals at this event since Juan Monaco and Mischa Zverev in 2009.

Djokovic will be face Casper Ruud for a spot in the championship match. The Norwegian overcame fourth seed Matteo Berrettini 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) in just under three hours to reach his first Masters 1000 semi-final.

Djokovic started quickly on Centrale, attacking Koepfer’s backhand and dictating rallies with his forehand to earn a 4-0 lead. But Koepfer responded emphatically, recovering both breaks, as the World No. 1’s level fluctuated. Djokovic quickly settled back into his rhythm on his forehand to clinch the first set and take an early lead in the second set.

Koepfer found a way back into the second set, firing a crosscourt backhand passing shot and showcasing incredible court coverage skills to level the score at 3-3. The German forced a decider with his fourth service break at 5-4, as Djokovic’s level dropped on his forehand side.

After failing to convert three consecutive break points in the opening game of the decider, Djokovic was gifted a love service break at 1-1. The 35-time Masters 1000 titlist served with confidence throughout the third set and regained consistency on his forehand towards the end of the match. Djokovic converted his second match point with a well-placed backhand drop volley.

Casper Ruud continued his strong 2020 run on clay at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday, beating fourth seed Matteo Berrettini 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) in Rome.

The Norwegian landed 20 forehand winners to improve to 12-2 on the surface this year after nearly three hours on Pietrangeli. During February’s Golden Swing, Ruud reached two finals from three clay events. The 21-year-old captured his maiden ATP Tour crown in Buenos Aires and finished as a runner-up in Santiago.

Ruud improves to 2-1 in his ATP Head2Head series against the Italian. The Oslo native claimed a straight-sets victory against Berrettini at Roland Garros last year. Berrettini earned his only victory against Ruud two weeks ago at the US Open.

Ruud has played well throughout this week against taller opposition. The 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals qualifier upset 6’6” Karen Khachanov in the first round and claimed back-to-back straight-sets victories against 6’3” Lorenzo Sonego and 6’6” Marin Cilic to reach the last eight.

By advancing to the semi-finals, Ruud has improved on his father’s best ATP Masters 1000 run. Christian Ruud reached his only quarter-final at the level at the 1997 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters (l. to Corretja).

Berrettini was attempting to become only the second Italian to reach the semi-finals in Rome since 2000. Filippo Volandri, a semi-finalist in 2007, is the only player to achieve the feat this century.

Ruud will aim to reach his first Masters 1000 final when he faces Novak Djokovic or Dominik Koepfer on Sunday. The World No. 34 has not met Djokovic or Koepfer at tour-level.

Berrettini overpowered Ruud with strong serving and aggressive forehands to establish a 3-1 advantage in the first set. The Italian showcased impressive touch as he attempted to shorten points, with Ruud committing only six unforced errors in the opener. Serving at 5-4, Berrettini moved to the net to close out the first set after 54 minutes.

After failing to convert three break points in the opening set, Ruud took his first opportunity in the second set. The Buenos Aires champion struck multiple forehand winners and took advantage of forehand errors from his opponent en route to a 3-0 lead. Ruud continued to dictate rallies with his forehand and extracted a backhand error from Berrettini to force a deciding set. Ruud fired nine forehand winners in the second set.

Ruud carried his momentum into the third set, breaking serve in the opening game. The Norwegian played with angles to open the court and struck a forehand winner up the line to take the lead for the first time. After falling behind in the score, Berrettini took the initiative and moved to the net to break Ruud for the first time since the opening game of the match.

In the tie-break, Ruud recovered from 2/4 down to claim victory. The Norwegian played with patience from the baseline to extract errors and served well under pressure to earn his 17th victory of the year (17-7).

You may have seen the bumper sticker that reads, “the worst day fishing is better than the best day working”. Along the same lines, is your worst day returning second serves still statistically better than your best day returning first serves? 

To be specific, if you looked at your second-serve return performance from only the matches you lost, would the average be higher than your first-serve return win percentage from only the matches you won? The fishing analogy rings true for our sport as well as the worst day returning second serves is still significantly better than the best day returning first serves. 

This Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis looks at five seasons from 2015-2019 and includes players that have played a minimum of 50 matches. Players in the data set averaged winning 53.3 per cent (173,783/325,771) of second-serve return points when they won their match, with that average dropping down to 44.5 per cent (122,172/274,276) when they lost the match.

But 44.5 per cent, which is a bad day at the office for second-serve returns, is still significantly superior to 32.3 per cent, which is a great day at the office returning against first serves. The gap is 12.2 per cent, which is essentially night and day.

The following table highlights average points won against first and second serves when players won and lost matches.

Average Points Won When Winning & Losing The Match 2015-2019

When players were triumphant in their matches, nobody dominated returning serve more in the past five seasons than Diego Schwartzman. Against second serves, the Argentine averaged winning 60 per cent (2713/4524) in matches that he won from 2015-2019, with 23 of his 135 victories above the 70 per cent threshold for second-serve return points won.

Schwartzman was also the leader with first-serve return points won when winning the match at 37.9 per cent (2469/6517). The players, which led the statistical categories when winning and losing matches are listed below.

Winning The Match
• No. 1: First-serve return points won = Diego Schwartzman 37.9% (2469/6517)
• No. 1: Second-serve return points won = Diego Schwartzman 60.0% (2713/4524)

Losing The Match
• No. 1: First-serve return points won = Marton Fucsovics 28.1% (877/3123)
• No. 1: Second-serve return points won = Yoshihito Nishioka 49.8% (767/1541)

Looking at match data through a different lens such as this provides new clarity for coaches and players to identify what matters most to win a match and to better organise their practice court. The first serve is the “big hammer” in our sport and even an outstanding performance returning in this area averages winning only about one in every three points.  

It is mission almost impossible. Bringing up a break point against Rafael Nadal’s serve is a commendable achievement. 

Good luck converting it, especially when competing on Campo Centrale at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal saving break points at clay court ATP Masters 1000 events shows he is tougher to break in Rome than Monte Carlo or Madrid. 

Break Points Saved: Clay-Court Masters 1000 Events
• Rome = 74.6% (303/406)
• Monte Carlo = 73.9% (394/533)
• Madrid = 73.4% (298/406) 

Nadal returned to action on Campo Centrale for his first tour-level match in 200 days on Wednesday. He immediately faced break-point after losing the deuce point in his opening service game against Pablo Carreno Busta after failing to take advantage of a 40-0 lead. 

Nadal has saved 303 break points in Rome in his career, but all you really need to witness is this one break point to know exactly what his primary strategy is in this important moment. Carreno Busta had to weigh up whether Nadal would go with his preferred “can-opener” slicing lefty serve out wide to pull him off the court, or surprise with a body serve or a delivery straight down the T. 

Overall in his career when serving at break point in the Ad court (0-40, 30-40, ad-out) at Masters 1000 clay-court events against right-handers, Nadal has gone with his favourite serve out wide almost twice as often as his next highest option, down the T.

Nadal Career: Serving Break Point At Clay-Court Masters 1000 vs. Right-Handers
• Wide = 53%
• Body = 21%
• T = 26%

Wide is the most likely, and the probability of a wide serve naturally rises the more pressure involved in the moment as it is the most comfortable and reliable serve for Nadal. The first break point faced in 200 days certainly met all the above criteria for a wide serve.

Carreno Busta took up his return position on the point with just his left foot in the alley. To visually shut down the wide serve, it needed to be much wider than that.

Nadal Serving Break Point: Carreno Busta’s Return Position 

Should Carreno Busta have stood wider with both feet in the alley? For the first point of the following game, Nadal’s return location mirrored the position of the break point with a righty serving against a lefty in the deuce court.

Nadal positioned himself there to visually take away the wide slice serve. This in turn attracts more serves to his forehand return.

Nadal Return Position To Take Away A Right-Hander’s Slice Serve

Serving at ad-out, Nadal indeed opted for the highest percentage serve. He sent down a 114mph snarling slice serve out wide. 

Carreno Busta was pulled to his left and was standing with two feet outside the doubles line to make contact with the return. He was now standing closer to the side fence than the singles court and netted the return.

Nadal Serving Break Point: Carreno Busta’s Contact Position 

That was the only break point that Carreno Busta saw for the match, as Nadal raced away to a 6-1, 6-1 victory in 73 minutes. Nadal is shooting for a 10th title in Rome this week. In 67 matches leading into this year’s event, he has not faced a break point in nine matches and has saved all break points faced in 16 matches. 

Converting break point against Nadal on the Roman “terre battue” of Campo Centrale is without doubt one of the toughest tests our sport has to offer.

Rafael Nadal flags “a couple of things” he needs to improve as his bid for a 10th Internazionali BNL d’Italia title builds momentum. It could sound alarm bells for No. 8 seed Diego Schwartzman when the pair meets in the quarter-finals on Saturday.

No. 2 seed Nadal conceded just six games total in his first two matches, despite not having played in more than six months. The No. 2 seed holds a perfect 9-0 ATP Head2Head record against the Argentine – including 22 of 24 sets.

The Spaniard backed up his comfortable dismissal of US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta with a 6-1, 6-3 result against Serb Dusan Lajovic on Friday. He has won an impressive 73 per cent (11/15) of his return games to reach his 93rd Masters 1000 quarter-final.

“I need to keep working on a couple of things that are not coming automatically, but I can’t ask for more,” Nadal said following his win over Lajovic. “[It was] another great evening for me against another good opponent. Can’t complain at all. Much better [than] what I expected.”

Most Wins In Rome (Open Era)

Schwartzman made a deep run in Rome last year, when he reached the semi-finals with straight-sets victories over Kei Nishikori and Matteo Berrettini en route. The 28-year-old rallied from a break down in the final set to edge past Pole Hubert Hurkacz 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the third round.

“[It] always has been very tough and tricky matches against him,” Nadal said. “I know I have to play very well if I want to have chances and that’s what I’m going to try [to do].”

Nadal and No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic will break their tied record should either win the title in Rome for a 36th Masters 1000 trophy. In an all-Serbian third-round clash, four-time champion Djokovic defeated Filip Krajinovic 7-6(7), 6-3 on Friday to set a quarter-final against German Dominik Koepfer, the first qualifier to advance as far since 2009.

The 33-year-old has now won 28 of his 29 matches this year, including title runs at the Australian Open, Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and Western & Southern Open. Koepfer, No. 97 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, has enjoyed a breakout week and is on a six-match winning streak, including his three victories in the qualifying rounds, in the Italian capital.

Having won through qualifying, he saved a match point to beat Alex de Minaur, then registered his first Top 10 win over Gael Monfils to reach the third round. There he ended the hopes of #NextGenATP Italian qualifier Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-0 on Friday.

An Open Era record-equalling four Italians made it to the Round of 16 in Rome, but only one survived – their highest-ranked, No. 4 seed Berrettini. The 24-year-old eked out a tight 7-6(5), 7-6(1) contest against compatriot Stefano Travaglia. 

Berrettini would become the first Italian man to reach the Rome semi-finals since Filippo Volandri in 2007 with a victory over Norwegian Casper Ruud next. The pair split two prior ATP Head2Head encounters – Ruud a winner on clay at Roland Garros last year and Berrettini a third-round victor in last month’s US Open.

Ruud followed in his father’s footsteps in reaching his maiden Masters 1000 quarter-final on Friday, with a 6-2, 7-6(6) win over 2018 Rome semi-finalist Marin Cilic. Christian Ruud made the 1997 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters quarter-finals. 

A semi-finalist in Rome six years ago, Grigor Dimitrov had to dig deep to end the run of 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals champion, Jannik Sinner, on Friday. The Bulgarian No. 15 seed rebounded from a set and a break down for a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 win over the 19-year-old wild card. 

He will carry a 2-0 ATP Head2Head ledger into his quarter-final showdown against No. 12 seed Denis Shapovalov, a player unbeaten in four Masters 1000 quarter-finals. The Canadian avenged January’s ASB Classic loss in Auckland to Ugo Humbert with a 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-4 victory on Friday.

ORDER OF PLAY – FRIDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2020

CENTRALE start 12:00 pm
WTA Match

Not Before 2:30 pm
[1] Novak Djokovic v [Q] Dominic Koepfer

Not Before 7:00 pm
WTA Match

Not Before 8:30 pm
[8] Diego Schwartzman v [2] Rafael Nadal

PIETRANGELI start 12:00 pm
[4] Matteo Berrettini v Casper Ruud

Not Before 2:00 pm
WTA Match
WTA Match

Not Before 6:00 pm
[12] Denis Shapovalov v [15] Grigor Dimitrov

Click here to view the full Internazionali BNL d’Italia Saturday schedule.

Dominik Koepfer says attending Tulane University beginning in Fall 2012 was an easy choice because he, “didn’t really have one”. It was the only Division I institution to offer him a spot on its team.

“I went to college, but wasn’t very good. I would say I was pretty terrible the first year,” Koepfer said. “But I started to work my way up.”

Eight years later, the German is living his dream as a professional tennis player. For someone who barely was able to find a college landing spot, he is doing pretty well for himself. Koepfer will play World No. 1 Novak Djokovic on Saturday in the quarter-finals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia.

Koepfer had never played an ATP Masters 1000 main draw match before this week in Rome. The World No. 97 won three three-setters to qualify and has only gotten better since. The lefty saved a match point against Alex de Minaur in the first round before stunning fifth seed Gael Monfils in the second round and ending home favourite Lorenzo Musetti’s dream run in the Round of 16. This will be his first ATP Tour quarter-final.

Koepfer Discusses Win Against Monfils:

But this isn’t the first time Koepfer has made a nice run at a big event. Last year, he qualified for the US Open and battled to the fourth round, in which he played eventual finalist Daniil Medvedev. The German pushed the red-hot Russian to a fourth-set tie-break before succumbing. That was first match against a Top 10 opponent.

“I knew going into the match against Medvedev that it wasn’t going to be easy,” Koepfer said. “He was one of the hottest players out there and he doesn’t lose much, so being up a set and a break, I thought I played well throughout the entire match. I was just not as physical anymore.

“Obviously it was my seventh match [including qualifying] and I didn’t have many days off before… so it was hard for me to battle through it, but I thought I did a good job. I was happy with the level and obviously walking out of the stadium, people cheering, it was a great experience I’ll never forget.”

It hasn’t always been easy getting to this point. Koepfer first broke into the Top 100 of the FedEx ATP Rankings last September when he was 25.

“The first year as a pro was different. I had bad habits from college, eating whatever I wanted,” Koepfer said. “I realised that to compete with the top guys, you have to be fit and ready to compete every day. Things definitely changed over the past year.”

A lot of credit for that goes to his coach, Rhyne Williams, another former college player (University of Tennessee) who reached World No. 114 in 2013. They began working together in November 2018, and Koepfer has been on an upwards trajectory ever since.

“He’s worked his butt off every day, making great decisions off the court especially,” Williams said of his charge. “He’s a beast in the gym and eats the right foods.”

Koepfer, who didn’t play tennis more than twice a week until he was 16 because of skiing and golf, has honed in on his mental game.

“I do a lot of daily routines: waking up, meditating, writing down things and before matches, after matches, I write down a lot of things,” Koepfer said. “I obviously talk to [my mental coach] once or twice a week on the phone for an hour or two and then [we] text back and forth and just put the daily effort into it and having routines. [That] is what makes a difference.”

The 26-year-old won’t shy away from the moment facing Djokovic.

“I think the biggest strength I have is my fighting spirit. I think I learned that in juniors playing club tennis, playing for other people and then moving onto college tennis, where the team spirit is unbelievable. Everyone plays for each other,” Koepfer said. “I took that from college into the professional level and I’m still thinking that I could improve on that… I think I’m a very good fighter and I want to give my opponent the hardest time out there.”

Koepfer is projected to reach a career-high FedEx ATP Ranking next week. An upset of Djokovic would see the German soar even higher.

“The biggest dream was to become a Top 100 tennis player, which I’ve achieved,” Koepfer said. “Now I need to set myself new goals and I’m still working on that. Definitely Top 50, definitely competing at the highest level, competing at Grand Slams and playing the best players in the world.”

Jurgen Melzer and Edouard Roger-Vasselin needed just 53 minutes to book their place in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia semi-finals on Friday.

The unseeded duo saved each of the three break points it faced to defeat Australian Open finalists Max Purcell and Luke Saville 6-1, 6-1. After saving three match points in their opening match against Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi and Stefanos Tsitsipas on Wednesday, Melzer and Roger-Vasselin have dropped only eight games across their past two matches.

The Dubai semi-finalists are attempting to reach their first final as a team. Melzer and Roger-Vasselin will face Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin in the semi-finals. The Frenchmen recovered from a set down to beat Rohan Bopanna and Denis Shapovalov 4-6, 7-5, 10-7.

Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos saved one match point to defeat US Open champions Mate Pavic and Bruno Soares 4-6, 7-6(7), 10-6 in just under two hours. The fourth seeds are chasing their third team title of the year, following back-to-back triumphs on clay at the Argentina Open and Rio Open presented by Claro in February.

Soares and Pavic entered the contest on a seven-match winning streak. They were attempting to capture their second ATP Masters 1000 crown as a team (2019 Rolex Shanghai Masters).

Granollers and Zeballos, who reached the Generali Open final in Kitzbühel last week, will face John Peers and Michael Venus in the semi-finals. Peers and Venus needed 73 minutes to overcome Italian wild cards Lorenzo Sonego and Andrea Vavassori 6-3, 3-6, 10-7.

Rafael Nadal is in top form at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, his first tournament since February.

The nine-time champion cruised past 2019 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters finalist Dusan Lajovic 6-1, 6-3 on Friday to reach his 15th Rome quarter-final.

“I played at I think a very positive level of tennis. Of course it needs to keep improving. I need to keep working on a couple of things that are not coming automatically.
But I can’t ask for more,” Nadal said. “[It was] another great evening for me against another good opponent. Can’t complain at all. Much better [than] what I expected.”

Nadal has only lost six games in his first two matches, including a 6-1, 6-1 triumph against US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta on Wednesday. The Spaniard has won an impressive 73 per cent (11/15) of his return games to reach his 93rd Masters 1000 quarter-final. 

“The first set it was 6-1, but a super tough beginning of the match. A lot of good points,” Nadal said. “[I’m] very happy, it’s an important victory for me after such a long time. To start the tournament with these two victories is great news.”

Lajovic is a dangerous clay-court foe. Last season, the Serbian reached the Monte Carlo final and lifted his maiden ATP Tour trophy on Umag’s clay. But Nadal never allowed the World No. 25 to get going on Court Centrale, manoeuvring him around the court as if he had him on a string. The second seed was firing with his forehand and struck his cross-court backhand well to keep Lajovic on the move.

“I know Dusan can play great shots. He’s a player with a lot of spin, a lot of power in the hand,” Nadal said. “I needed the consistency. I needed to let him play from the back, not from comfortable positions.”

The shot of the match came at 2-1 in the first set. Lajovic hit a kick serve out wide that nearly put the legendary lefty into the flower boxes on the side of the court, but Nadal responded by crushing a down-the-line return winner to break serve. Lajovic battled hard, winning three consecutive games from 1-6, 0-4 down by improving his court positioning, but it was too little, too late. Nadal quickly halted his momentum, holding and then breaking at love to close out his 90-minute win.

The World No. 2 leads Lajovic 3-0 in their ATP Head2Head series. He has won seven of their eight sets by a margin of 6-3 or greater.

Nadal will next face eighth seed Diego Schwartzman, who rallied past dangerous Pole Hubert Hurkacz 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 after two hours and nine minutes. The Spaniard leads their rivalry 9-0, with seven of those victories coming in straight sets.

“[It] always has been very tough and tricky matches against him,” Nadal said. “I know I have to play very well if I want to have chances and that’s what I’m going to try [to do].”

Diego Schwartzman” />

Schwartzman has enjoyed success in Rome, reaching the semi-finals last year with straight-set triumphs against Kei Nishikori and Matteo Berrettini. The Argentine trailed Hurkacz by a break in the third set, but he battled back under the lights.

Did You Know?
Nadal and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic both own 35 Masters 1000 titles. If either man triumphs in Rome, they will stand alone atop the Masters 1000 title leaderboard.