Roger Federer vs Matteo Berrettini ATP Finals 2019 Preview and Prediction
Roger Federer knows he can’t have any more slip ups in his group at the ATP Finals if he is to advance to the semi-finals.…
Roger Federer knows he can’t have any more slip ups in his group at the ATP Finals if he is to advance to the semi-finals.…
Alexander Zverev walked on court Monday at the Nitto ATP Finals in London having never defeated World No. 1 Rafael Nadal in five previous tries. But the German believed in his own game, and executed flawlessly in a 6-2, 6-4 victory.
“When I play this aggressive tennis, when I play this way, I have now beaten all three guys on this court, [the] Big Three,” Zverev said. “It shows that I can play very well and beat the top players.”
In a way, Zverev beat Nadal at his own game. Entering this tournament, Nadal led the ATP Tour by a substantial margin in first-serve return points won. The Spaniard had won 35.7 per cent of those points, with his nearest rival in that category, Novak Djokovic, at 33.9 per cent.
But on Monday, the lefty managed to win just 12 per cent of his first-serve return points against Zverev, the reigning Nitto ATP Finals champion. In their five previous meetings, Zverev had never won more than 71 per cent of his first-serve points.
According to Hawkeye, Zverev won 88 per cent of his first-serve points against the 84-time tour-level champion by peppering Nadal’s backhand.
That was especially the case on the ad side, where the German directed all but two of his first serves to Nadal’s backhand. The top seed managed to put only 44 per cent of his first-serve returns in play.
Zverev First-Serve Placement vs. Nadal
“He served huge. Very, very fast,” Nadal said. “[It was] difficult to read [his] first [and] second [serves], no doubt about that, about how good he is and how good he is able to serve.”
Zverev averaged 136 mph on his first delivery, 18 mph faster than Nadal. Even with that discrepancy, Zverev landed 69 per cent of his first serves compared to 62 per cent for Nadal, striking 11 aces.
With that high first-serve percentage, Zverev was able to play eight fewer second-serve points than his opponent. But when he did have to hit a second serve, he held his own, winning a higher rate of second-serve points (47%) than Nadal (43%). Zverev mostly targeted Nadal’s backhand in the deuce court and body in the ad court.
Zverev Second-Serve Placement vs. Nadal
From the baseline, Zverev attacked the 33-year-old’s backhand. He hit a majority of his shots to that wing (54%).
Zverev went after Nadal’s backhand the most with his forehand, doing so 62 per cent of the time. With his backhand, the 22-year-old hit to both Nadal’s forehand and backhand at a rate of 38 per cent.
Zverev Shot Placement vs. Nadal
Nadal took the opposite strategy, focussing on Zverev’s forehand, much like Stefanos Tsitsipas did against Daniil Medvedev earlier in the day.
Nadal Shot Placement vs. Zverev
Even with Zverev’s dominant serving, Nadal tried to push forward. He hit 82 per cent of his shots either within two metres of the baseline or inside the court. Zverev struck only 60 per cent of his shots within those parametres.
But Nadal’s aggression did not pay dividends. The Spaniard made 24 unforced errors to Zverev’s 19, and hit eight fewer winners (8) than the German (17).
Nadal Rally Contact Point vs. Zverev
Zverev Rally Contact Point vs. Nadal
“Obviously when I’m here, I want to use the opportunity as much as I can and do the best as I can,” Zverev said. “Today was definitely a great match, and I’m super happy to kind of have this match the first day that I play.”
– Hawkeye data and visuals courtesy of ATP Media
Rafael Nadal found one big positive to take away from his surprise 6-2, 6-4 defeat to Alexander Zverev on Monday night at the Nitto ATP Finals: The Spaniard is pain-free.
The World No. 1 pulled out of his Rolex Paris Masters semi-final on 2 November after feeling a strain in his abdominal while serving in the warm-up. But Nadal said he didn’t feel any such pain during his first match at The O2 since 2017.
“No complaint about the physical condition. No pain in abdominal. That’s the only positive thing, honestly. That’s all. Happy the way that [the] abdominal [felt], and hopefully I can continue like this, because it’s true that I was not able to create a lot of practice and a lot of effort on that part of the body since last Saturday,” Nadal said.
“The physical issue was not an excuse at all. The only excuse is I was not good enough tonight.”
Nadal fell to 5-1 against Zverev in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series and was unable to get much going against the offencive-minded German, who is trying to become the first player to win back-to-back Nitto ATP Finals titles since Novak Djokovic in 2014-15.
Zverev, with 28 winners, more than doubled Nadal’s total (13).
“I stay positive. I stay competitive, something that today I was not,” Nadal said. “That’s the thing that I am more disappointed [with], because knowing that I will not be at my 100 per cent in terms of feelings, in terms of movement, in terms of confidence or hitting the ball, I needed my best competitive spirit this afternoon, and I was not there in that way.”
Nadal is looking to finish year-end No. 1 for the fifth time and draw even with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. The top seed currently leads Novak Djokovic by 440 points in the battle for year-end No. 1.
Roger Federer has failed to advance to the semi-finals at the Nitto ATP Finals just once in 16 previous appearances. But if the Swiss wants to avoid putting in jeopardy his hopes this year, he will have to put forth a strong performance on Tuesday against first-time qualifier Matteo Berrettini. In the evening singles match, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem battle to stay undefeated in Group Bjorn Borg play.
Federer, who lost his opening round-robin match at The O2 for the second consecutive year on Sunday, knows there is little margin for error now. The Swiss needs to bounce back after dropping his third straight match against Thiem.
“It’s a normal tournament from here on forward. Not allowed to lose anymore,” Federer said. “That’s how it is every week of the year for the past 20 years, so from that standpoint there is nothing new there.”
Federer played Berrettini for the first time in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series at Wimbledon this year, losing just five games in a 74-minute victory in the fourth round. But the Italian has since cracked the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings for the first time, reaching the semi-finals at the US Open, Shanghai and Vienna.
“Matteo, with his serve, with what he can do, obviously any opponent is dangerous here. He didn’t obviously have the best match against Novak. It’s probably also the toughest way to start off the [Nitto ATP] Finals, playing Novak on the indoors, because he rarely has hiccups as well early on in tournaments,” Federer said. “But, yeah, I’ve got to recover, I’ve got to make sure I play better than today, and hopefully I can win that match.”
Djokovic defeated Berrettini 6-2, 6-1 in 64 minutes in the first match of Group Bjorn Borg action. And as the only member of the group who had never competed on this stage before, Berrettini will hope to put his debut behind him and play his best tennis against Federer, a six-time season finale champion.
“For sure I was nervous. First time in the Finals after a great year, so, yeah, I was nervous, but not in a bad way,” Berrettini said. “Normally when I step on the court and I don’t feel nervous, something is wrong. I have to feel nervous to play my best tennis… So just accepting the loss, and for sure I’m looking forward to play the next matches.”
Djokovic and Thiem will look to maintain the momentum from their opening wins, with the potential of clinching a spot in the semi-finals. The Serbian, with Rafael Nadal’s loss to Alexander Zverev Monday evening, now controls his destiny in the battle for year-end No. 1. He is trying to tie Pete Sampras for the most year-end No. 1 finishes with six.
The second seed is also pursuing a record-tying sixth Nitto ATP Finals title. He leads Thiem 6-3 in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series.
“We know how good of a player he is on clay. He’s been proving that he can play equally well on other surfaces,” Djokovic said. “He’s already established [himself as a] Top 5, Top 10 player. We don’t need to talk about his qualities. Quality is great. His dedication and professionalism and hard work ethics is fantastic, and he’s a really nice guy. So all positive things about him.”
Scenarios For Semi-final Qualification In Group Bjorn Borg
Novak Djokovic qualifies Tuesday if… |
– He defeats Thiem and Berrettini beats Federer. |
Dominic Thiem qualifies Tuesday if… | – He defeats Djokovic and Federer beats Berrettini. – He defeats Djokovic in two sets and Berrettini beats Federer in three sets. |
Djokovic defeated Thiem here three years ago, overcoming the disappointment of losing a 22-point first-set tie-break to win the next two sets with the loss of just two games. But the Austrian star won their most recent meeting in five sets at Roland Garros earlier this year.
“I think he’s the best right now. He proved that also in Bercy where he didn’t somehow play his best tennis, but still won the title pretty easy, so that’s how good his level is.” Thiem said. “I will watch that match in Roland Garros a little bit, because it was very good, of course. Was also, most of the time, the right tactics I played. Of course it’s not the same here. Was clay outdoor back then and now indoor. But some things I can use, for sure, in the match on Tuesday
“Probably right now it’s the biggest challenge you can face, to play Novak.”
Thiem has proven he can compete on hard courts, winning an ATP Masters 1000 title on the surface this year in Indian Wells and then capturing ATP 500 trophies in Beijing and Vienna. After defeating Federer in two sets Sunday evening, Thiem will have plenty of confidence. But the 26-year-old knows his pursuit of reaching a maiden semi-final at the Nitto ATP Finals on his fourth appearance is far from over.
“The system is pretty brutal, I would say, because I had an amazing victory today. I’m feeling great. I’m feeling now that I have a good chance to reach the semis. But if I lose on Tuesday, for example, everything is completely open again, and I have to worry about everything on the next match on Thursday,” Thiem said. “So the only thing I can do is to rest well tomorrow, practise well, and be fully focussed again on Tuesday.”
Did You Know?
Federer is undefeated in his second round-robin match at the Nitto ATP Finals (16-0). The Swiss has lost a set in those matches five times, but has battled through on each occasion.
2019 Nitto ATP Finals |
---|
Venue: O2 Arena, London Dates: 10-17 November |
Coverage: Watch live coverage of one match per day on BBC TV, BBC iPlayer and online; Listen on BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra; Live text on selected matches on the BBC Sport website and app. Click here for Live Guide. |
Rafael Nadal’s bid to end the year as world number one faltered with a straight-set loss to defending champion Alexander Zverev at the ATP Finals.
The Spaniard, a fitness doubt before the season-ending event in London with an abdominal injury, was beaten 6-2 6-4 in their opening round-robin match.
Nadal, who has not completed a tournament since September’s US Open, was out of sorts and error prone.
Earlier, sixth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas beat fellow debutant Daniil Medvedev.
The Greek 21-year-old beat the Russian 7-6 (7-5) 6-4 at the O2 Arena.
Novak Djokovic, who can overtake Nadal at the top of the world rankings this week, leads the other group after winning on Sunday.
The top two players in each group after the round-robin stage progress to the semi-finals on Saturday.
The men’s season-ending event, which is taking place in London for the penultimate year, features the top eight players of the year.
Nadal had never lost to Zverev in five previous meetings but against the German on Monday he was comprehensively outplayed.
The Spaniard had not completed a tournament since September’s US Open, withdrawing from Shanghai (left hand) and the Paris semi-finals (abdominal), and he had only started serving “very slowly” on Thursday.
He was broken in the fifth game of the first set, netting a routine forehand, and then lost the next five games as Zverev took charge with Nadal failing to carve out a single break point in the entire match.
Nadal has never won the end-of-season showpiece, with injuries often plaguing his attempts. He did not play last year and pulled out after his first match in 2017, with the Spaniard having been unable to participate fully in seven editions of the event.
Djokovic will finish the year as world number one if he wins the tournament and Nadal does not reach the semi-finals.
Alternatively, if the Spaniard fails to win a round-robin match, the Serb will overtake him if he wins two group-stage matches and reaches the final.
Tsitsipas, the youngest player in the tournament, had lost all five of his previous meetings with US Open runner-up Medvedev and the pair have had a difficult relationship since a row over a net cord in Miami last year.
Tsitsipas then called the Russian’s playing style “boring” after a defeat at the Shanghai Masters last month.
The pair are two of the most highly-rated young players in the game – two of four singles players aged 24 or under at this year’s championships – but Tsitsipas was rewarded for being the more aggressive of the two players in a match that featured just one break of serve.
Asked whether beating Medvedev meant extra to him, the Greek said: “It means more than extra.
“It’s a victory that I’ve craved for a long time now and it’s great that it came in this moment.
“Our chemistry definitely isn’t the best that you can find on the tour. It just happens with people that it’s not that you can just like everyone.
“It’s not that I hate him. I guess, as he said, we will not go to dinner together.”
There were no breaks in the first set but Tsitsipas played better in the tie-break, earning the crucial mini-break to move 6-5 ahead by winning a gruelling point at the net with a volley.
The second set was similarly tight but Tsitsipas remained immaculate on serve – he did not face a break point in the match – and eventually broke serve to go 5-4 in front, helped by the Russian choosing not to volley a return at 30-30 that landed in.
Tsitsipas served out the match in the following game, and celebrated enthusiastically after the final point as he moved top of the early group table.
Tsitsipas, who beat Federer en route to the semi-finals of this year’s Australian Open, won the Next Gen event a year ago – the season-ending tournament for players aged 21 or under.
He said he had “goosebumps” when making his debut in London.
“I watched this event for the first time in 2010, I used to watch on TV dreaming of potentially playing on these courts,” he said.
When at the Nitto ATP Finals, Alexander Zverev brings his best.
The defending champion upset the World No. 1 at The O2 for the second consecutive year on Monday, beating top seed Rafael Nadal 6-2, 6-4 for his first win against the Spaniard (1-5).
The 22-year-old German controlled the Group Andre Agassi matchup throughout, showing signs of the level that brought him his biggest title to date last year in London, when he became the first player to beat Roger Federer and then-No. 1 Novak Djokovic in tournament history.
“This means so much, playing here again after winning my biggest title so far in my career here last year. This means everything to me,” Zverev said.
“I was looking forward to this match, and thanks a lot for all the support, everybody who came out… The atmosphere is the reason why everybody is trying, the goal of the beginning of the season is to make London. Because playing here, playing in front of you all, playing in The O2 is something that we don’t have during the year, and this is so special.”
Zverev took advantage of the quick indoor conditions and played attacking tennis against Nadal, who was playing his first match since withdrawing from his Rolex Paris Masters semi-final on 2 November (abdominal tear).
PEAK ALEXANDER ZVEREV!
This might just be shot of the tournament ?
?: @TennisTV | @AlexZverev | #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/e1emNM0hLj
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 11, 2019
The German won 88 per cent (30/34) of his first-serve points and never faced a break point.
“I did not feel pain in the abdominal at all,” Nadal said. “Sascha, well played, and me, [badly] played, honestly. We can find reasons or excuses, but at the end of the day, [all that] really matters is I need to play much better in two days after tomorrow. That’s the only thing.”
Zverev, after taking the opener and an early break, handed Nadal a window of opportunity with two double faults, falling behind 0/30. But the seventh seed composed himself to escape and never faced such trouble again on his racquet.
Nadal, meanwhile, struggled to find his best tennis. He was broken twice in the first set, both times missing forehands, and in the opening game of the second set, after a lengthy back-and-forth rally, Zverev finished off the break with a forehand volley. Zverev won 75 per cent (6/8) of his net forays.
The Spaniard particularly struggled to return Zverev’s first serve, let alone win the point to make inroads in the German’s service games.
“The whole thing was about the serve,” Zverev said. “Obviously when I play this aggressive tennis, when I play this way, I have now beaten all three guys on this court, Big 3, so it shows that I can play very well and beat the top players.”
The 33-year-old Nadal is looking to finish year-end No. 1 for the fifth time and currently leads second-seeded Djokovic by 440 points in the battle for year-end No. 1. Djokovic faces fifth seed Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night.
Did You Know?
Zverev improved to 3-0 in opening group matches at the Nitto ATP Finals. He beat Marin Cilic in 2017 and 2018.
Ruthless performance from @AlexZverev ?
Last year’s champion triumphs 6-2, 6-4 & defeats Nadal for the first time in his career ?
?: @TennisTV | #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/ekbv1wBGvr
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 11, 2019
Last year’s finalist start strongly
Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut moved closer to completing their historic doubles season with a maiden crown at the Nitto ATP Finals. The French pair ousted top seeds Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah 6-3, 7-5 on Monday in Group Max Mirnyi 6-3, 7-5.
“It was a great match for us,” said Herbert. “It was a high-level match from both sides and we knew we needed to be good against the No. 1 team. We’re so happy with the level we played. To come through this first match is something special for us.”
Mahut said, “I remember well how they won Wimbledon, as I was on the other side of the court [with Edouard Roger-Vasselin]. Today we made the best start at the [Nitto] ATP Finals in our five appearances here. We’re really happy to have won today and keeping trying to win.”
Cabal/Farah started off strongly by breaking Herbert’s serve in the opening game, but Herbert/Mahut leveled the score three games later with a gorgeous topspin lob winner from Mahut on Cabal’s serve. Herbert’s aggressive volleying helped the French pair break Cabal’s serve for a 4-2 lead and they rode the slight advantage to an early lead.
The Colombian pair refused to bow out quietly, though. Cabal/Farah let out a roar of delight after breaking Herbert/Mahut for a 3-1 lead in the second set, but a double fault from Farah in the next game gifted the break right back. Both teams remained even until Mahut sprung to life at 5-5 with a forehand volley winner to break Cabal. A smash winner from Herbert in the next game wrapped up play after one hour and 21 minutes.
Herbert/Mahut improved to 5-1 in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry with Cabal/Farah. Last year’s finalists (l. to M. Bryan/Sock) became the eighth men’s doubles team to complete the career Grand Slam by prevailing in January at the Australian Open (d. Kontinen/Peers). They arrived in London on a high after prevailing two weeks ago on home soil at the Rolex Paris Masters (d. Khachanov/Rublev).
Watch the best shots as sixth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas wins his opening match at the ATP Finals by edging out fourth seed and fellow debutant Daniil Medvedev in London.
Stefanos Tsitsipas was on a mission Monday during his debut at the Nitto ATP Finals: avoid Daniil Medvedev’s backhand. That strategy paid dividends for the Greek Star, who defeated Medvedev for the first time in their sixth FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting.
Entering the match, Tsitsipas and Medvedev had both won 76 per cent of their first-serve points this season. But it was the 21-year-old who dominated that category inside The O2 in London, winning 89 per cent of his first-serve points compared to 72 per cent for Medvedev.
According to Hawkeye, a staggering 43 per cent of Tsitsipas’ first serves were unreturned by Medvedev, who had won more than 31 per cent of his first-serve return points in 2019 entering the match.
Tsitsipas targeted Medvedev’s forehand, aiming out wide in the deuce court and down the T in the ad court more than anywhere else.
Tsitsipas First-Serve Placement vs. Medvedev
Tsitsipas’ first-serve domination proved key, as Medvedev put all of his second-serve returns into the court, winning 59 per cent of those points.
Even though he was not as successful behind his second serve, Tsitsipas was unrelenting in his strategy. The three-time ATP Tour champion did not go to Medvedev’s backhand once in the ad court, and he only did so three times — a rate of 20 per cent — in the deuce court. And those three second serves were closer to being body serves than they were to the centre service line.
Tsitsipas Second-Serve Placement vs. Medvedev
Medvedev camped deep in the court on return, especially when facing Tsitsipas’ first serve. The Russian returned just one first serve from within three metres of the baseline.
Medvedev Return Contact Point vs. Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas was more focussed on taking his returns early. All of his first-serve returns came closer in than all but one of Medvedev’s. The Greek put 67 per cent of his first-serve returns into play.
Tsitsipas Return Contact Point vs. Medvedev
Tsitsipas carried his service strategy to baseline rallies, especially on the forehand side. The sixth seed struck 49 per cent of his forehands to Medvedev’s forehand.
Tsitsipas Forehand Placement vs. Medvedev
Medvedev was more intent on targeting Tsitsipas’ backhand, hitting 47 per cent of his forehands down the line. Overall, the Russian went to the Greek’s backhand 51 per cent of the time.
Medvedev Forehand Placement vs. Tsitsipas
Early in the match, Medvedev contolled the longer rallies, winning eight of the 11 points that lasted more than nine shots in the first set. But Tsitsipas turned the tide in the second set, emerging victorious in five of eight rallies that lasted that long. And targeting Medvedev’s forehand helped him earn what he called, “one of the most important victories of my career”.
– Hawkeye data and visuals courtesy of ATP Media
Greek edges through first set
Stefanos Tsitsipas is one set away from clinching his first win against Daniil Medvedev at the Nitto ATP Finals, grabbing the opening set 7-6(5) as both players make their debut at The O2 in London.
Tsitsipas couldn’t convert the lone break point in the opening set and hit a slice backhand into the net. He struck first in the tie-break and a strong forehand helped him create a 4/2 mini-break advantage, but a forehand approach sent wide two points later tied up the score.
But at 5/5, the Greek produced one of his best points of the match and finished it with a forehand volley winner. Tsitsipas converted the opportunity with an aggressive forehand and let out a roar of delight. He finished the set with 16 winners and won 13 of 17 trips to the net.
Medvedev holds a flawless 5-0 record in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry. Two wins against Tsitsipas came at Masters 1000 events this year in Monte-Carlo and Shanghai. The Russian is seeking his 60th tour-level win of the season.
More to follow…
INCREDIBLE rally at a key moment ?@StefTsitsipas is on fire right now ?
?: @TennisTV | #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/oIo8IATfGp
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 11, 2019