There is a fascinating juxtaposition in our sport regarding Return Games Won.

If you analyse the best player in this specific metric at the end of each season since 1991, you would see there is real improvement being made in recent years on the return side of the net.

But if you expand the data set to include the leading 40 players each season with Return Games Won, you would come to a very different conclusion. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Return Games Won since 1991 (when statistics were first kept in tennis) to this season uncovers two very conflicting results.

Leading Player – Return Games Won 1991-2018

The line in the sand is very clearly at the turn of the century. The leading six seasons for the player that led the tour with Return Games Won have all been since 2000, with three of them since 2010.

Return Games Won: Season Leader Since 1991

Novak Djokovic’s breakout season in 2011 – when he won three majors and five ATP World Tour Masters 1000s – was underpinned by his tour-leading 38.84 Return Games Won percentage.

You would naturally think because these players are putting up ever-increasing totals that the same must be for the rest of the tour. It’s simply not so when you look at the bigger data set.

Leading 40 Players – Return Games Won 1991-2018

This is much more an examination of the depth of our game regarding proficiency breaking serve. This analysis is an average of the leading 40 players with Return Games Won each season since 1991, and it uncovers a vastly different result than the examination of the season’s tour leader.

Return Games Won: Average Of Leading 40 Players Since 1991

All six of the leading categories now occur before the turn of the century, with 1991 – the first year that records were kept – producing the highest Return Games Won percentage by the leading 40 players.

When you compare apples to apples – with the Top 40 Return Games Won average from the past six years (2013-18) and the first six years (1991-96) – you uncover just how big the disparity has become.

Top 40 Average – Six Year Period
1991 – 1996 = 28.97%
2013 – 2018 = 23.96%

A substantial 5.01 percentage point gap exists between the two periods.

One conclusion that we may draw is that while some players are definitely breaking serve more often, not everyone is progressing at the same rate. And when you look at the players bucking the overall downward trend in recent years, it reveals one important reason why they are finding separation from their opponents.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers writer Craig O’Shannessy is a member of Novak Djokovic’s coaching team.

Third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas lost just eight of his first-service points to knock out John Millman of Australia 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in two hours and 20 minutes for a place in the Intrum Stockholm Open quarter-finals on Wednesday. The Next Gen ATP Finals qualifier, who reached the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell and Rogers Cup finals (l. to Nadal both times) this year, will next play eighth-seeded Spaniard Fernando Verdasco or Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany.

“I had a good start, got the break and thought it was a good start,” said Tsitsipas. “I started playing defensively in the second set and got broken twice. It didn’t affect me losing the second set, but I got closer to his serve in the third set and broke at 4-3.”

Watch Hot Shot: Tsitsipas Hangs Tough In Stockholm

Earlier in the day, seventh seed Denis Shapovalov, who is also making his debut at the ATP World Tour 250 tournament, beat fellow Canadian Peter Polansky 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 in two hours and 33 minutes. Shapovalov led 3-1 in the deciding set, but recovered from a 4-5 deficit to win 12 of the last 14 points.

“It was definitely a tough match, I knew it was going to be going in – having played him a few times earlier in my career,” said Shapovalov, who is now 35-25 on the year. “I knew what he was capable of and I was ready for it.”

The 19-year-old, who has also qualified for 21-and-under event in Milan from 6-10 November, will next face Latvia’s Ernests Gulbis in the second round. “He’s definitely a good player and has a lot of experience. It’s going to be a really tough match as he’s capable of playing really good tennis.”

Watch Hot Shot: Shapovalov Rips Winner On Set Point

Jack Sock progressed to the quarter-finals after two hours and 22 minutes, edging home favourite Elias Ymer 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. The two-time runner-up, now 13-5 in the Swedish capital, won 83 per cent of first-serve points to reach his first tour-level quarter-final since Houston in April.

“It was a tough match, I thought [Ymer] played very well” said Sock. “I hadn’t seen him play a whole lot before, but I thought he served well and played solid from the ground. It definitely took some of my best tennis to get through in the end.”

In the final match of the day, South Korea’s Hyeon Chung beat American Denis Kudla 6-3, 6-3 and will next meet Lukas Lacko or second seed Fabio Fognini.

Welcome to the 2018 ATP World Tour Awards Presented by Moët & Chandon, where we recognise outstanding players and tournaments. View the nominees for the player-voted categories and cast your votes now for ATPWorldTour.com Fans’ Favourite presented by Moët & Chandon.

Winners for the 2018 ATP World Tour Awards Presented by Moët & Chandon will be announced ahead of the Nitto ATP Finals.

Voted By Fans

ATPWorldTour.com Fans’ Favourite presented by Moët & Chandon (Singles, Doubles): The singles player and doubles team receiving the highest number of votes from ATPWorldTour.com fans from now through 2 November.

Determined By ATP Rankings

ATP World Tour No. 1: The player who ends the year as World No. 1 in the ATP Rankings.

ATP World Tour No. 1 Doubles Team: The team that ends the year as World No. 1 in the ATP Doubles Team Rankings. 

Voted By Players

Comeback Player of the Year: The player who has overcome serious injury in re-establishing himself as one of the top players on the ATP World Tour.

Novak Djokovic
Jason Kubler
John Millman
Kei Nishikori

Most Improved Player of the Year: The player who reached a significantly higher ATP Ranking by year’s end and who demonstrated an increasingly improved level of performance through the year.

Marco Cecchinato
Alex de Minaur
Kyle Edmund
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Newcomer of the Year: The #NextGenATP player who entered the Top 100 for the first time in 2018 (ATP Ranking as of 15 October) and made the biggest impact on the ATP World Tour this season.

Alex de Minaur
Ugo Humbert
Hubert Hurkacz
Michael Mmoh
Jaume Munar

Stefan Edberg Sportsmanship Award: The player who, throughout the year, conducted himself at the highest level of professionalism and integrity, who competed with his fellow players with the utmost spirit of fairness and who promoted the game through his off-court activities.

Kevin Anderson
Juan Martin del Potro
Roger Federer
Rafael Nadal

Tournaments of the Year: The tournament in its category that operated at the highest level of professionalism and integrity and which provided the best conditions and atmosphere for participating players.

Categories:
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
ATP World Tour 500
ATP World Tour 250

Voted By Coaches

ATP Coach of the Year: Nominated and voted on by fellow ATP coach members, this award goes to the ATP coach who helped guide his players to a higher level of performance during the year.

Chosen By ATP

Arthur Ashe Humanitarian Award: The person who has made outstanding humanitarian contributions. Previous winners include former South African President Nelson Mandela, Arthur Ashe, Federer, Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and 2017 recipient Horia Tecau.

Ron Bookman Media Excellence Award: The journalist who has made significant contributions to the game of tennis.