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The Secret Behind Federer’s Five-Match Win Streak Against Nadal

  • Posted: Oct 16, 2017

The Secret Behind Federer’s Five-Match Win Streak Against Nadal

Federer tips the serve v. return battle heavily in his favour

Roger Federer broke down Rafael Nadal’s much-vaunted return game during his 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final by hitting the corners of the service boxes at will, and by staying a step ahead in the guessing game of which corner he was aiming at next. Federer’s serve was completely dialed in, leaving Nadal to continuously play catch-up on the quick indoor court.

The pair has now played 38 times, with the Spaniard holding a 23-15 advantage. The following metrics show how dominant Federer was on serve and how Nadal was unable to make an impact on return.

Nadal Return Statistics v Federer

Lowest: 2nd Serve Return Points Won = 21% (3/14)

It was the lowest percentage of second serve points won by Nadal in their 38 matches. The next lowest was 25 per cent (5/20) won at Indian Wells earlier this year, when Federer dominated 6-2, 6-3. Overall, Nadal has won 50 per cent (679/1348) of second serve points head-to-head against Federer.

Lowest: Percentage Return Points Won = 18% (8/44)

The 18 per cent return points won represents a career low for Nadal against Federer. In all of their other matches, Nadal has averaged winning 38 per cent (1347/3570) of his combined first- and second-serve return points.

Equal Lowest: Total Return Points Won = 8

This ties the lowest total for first and second serve points won with their 2011 Nitto ATP Finals clash, which Federer won 6-3, 6-0. Those two matches represent the only two times out of 38 that Nadal has been in single figures for return points won.

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Equal Third Lowest: Total First-Serve Return Points Won = 5

Nadal only won six points against Federer’s first serve in their 2017 Indian Wells encounter, and won one less Sunday in Shanghai, with just five points won.

2017 Shanghai Final – First Serve Location Deuce Court

It was all about the mix for the Swiss. Federer served 12 times out wide in the deuce court, and 14 times down the middle. This even mix constantly had Nadal guessing, and, more often than not, it was the wrong way.

Federer won 10 of 12 service points out wide in the deuce court, with four being backhand return errors from Nadal. Federer won a perfect 8/8 when he made his first serve down the middle T in the Deuce court, including four aces and a service winner.

In the ad court, Federer served 14 times out wide, making 10, and winning seven. He served nine times down the middle T, making eight, and winning five. Nadal had no idea where Federer was going, or when.

The Five-Match Win Streak

Federer has now beaten Nadal five straight times for the first time, with four victories coming this year, and one back in 2015. The following 10 metrics showcase just how dominant Federer’s serve has been during the five-match win streak.

  1. When leading 15/0 on serve, Federer has held every time (42/42).

  2. When Federer has been pushed to deuce, he has held 93 per cent (13/14) of the time.

  3. Federer’s career first-serve percentage is 62 per cent. He is making 63 per cent (240/379) during the streak.

  4. Federer has hit 52 aces and just seven double faults. Nadal has served just 14 aces, while also committing seven double faults.

  5. Federer’s career first-serve points won is 77 per cent. He is winning 79 per cent (189/240) now against Nadal.

  6. Federer has averaged saving 67 per cent of his break points in his career, but that has sky-rocketed to 80% (20/25) during the five-match win streak. Nadal is at 63 per cent.

  7. Nadal has averaged winning 34 per cent of his first-serve return points for his career, but is only at 21 per cent (51/240) during the five matches.

  8. Nadal has averaged winning 55 per cent of his second-serve return points for his career, but is only at 42 per cent (59/139) during the five matches.

  9. Nadal has only won 19 per cent (4/21) of break points returning in the ad court.

  10. Federer has only found himself down 0/30 seven times in the five matches, winning three of those games.

Nadal did make an adjustment in the Shanghai final by moving further back to return against Federer. That tactic worked for Nadal in the 2017 US Open final against Kevin Anderson, but didn’t make a difference against Federer yesterday.

More adjustments, more tweaks, and more video analysis of Federer’s streak will be needed by the Spaniard to figure out his recent returning conundrum.

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Sela Stalls Coric's Milan Hopes

  • Posted: Oct 16, 2017

Sela Stalls Coric's Milan Hopes

Bublik advances to preserve his own Emirates ATP Race To Milan dreams

ATP World Tour veteran Dudi Sela stalled #NextGenATP Croatian Borna Coric’s hopes of qualifying for the Next Gen ATP Finals by eliminating the 20 year old from the VTB Kremlin Cup on Monday, 6-3, 6-2.

The Israeli fell behind 0-2, but then won eight of the next nine games to take a commanding set and a break lead over the No. 6 player in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan. Sela would not look back, closing out his opponent in 63 minutes. While Coric can no longer control his destiny in the Race this week, he currently leads the final automatic qualifier, No. 7 Hyeon Chung, by 146 points. 

Alexander Bublik maintained his dreams of qualifying for the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals by defeating Russian Teymuraz Gabashvili, 6-3, 6-4 in 68 minutes.

The young Kazakh, who got into the main draw as a lucky loser despite falling in the final round of qualifying to Lukas Rosol, kept his hopes alive in the Race. He entered the tournament in 12th place with 459 points, 281 points behind No, 7 Chung, who is currently in the final qualifying spot. If Bublik goes onto win his first ATP World Tour title in Moscow, he will earn 250 points, which would put him right in the mix for Milan.

The tournament’s No. 5 seed, Andrey Rublev, begins his campaign on Tuesday. The Russian became the second player to qualify for the Next Gen ATP Finals on Tuesday, joining Alexander Zverev.

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Rublev Qualifies For Next Gen ATP Finals

  • Posted: Oct 16, 2017

Rublev Qualifies For Next Gen ATP Finals

Russian to head to Milan next month

Andrey Rublev joined Alexander Zverev on Monday as the only two players who have qualified for the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals, to be held 7-11 November in Milan.

“I’m really happy and I’m really excited to play in Milan,” said Rublev. “I did hard work this year and I’ve had some great results. So I’m really excited to play Milan.”

The 19-year-old Moscow native has enjoyed a breakout season this year on the ATP World Tour. He exploded onto the scene in July, when, as a lucky loser, he won five consecutive matches to win his maiden ATP World Tour title at the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag.

#NextGenATP Rublev continued to excel during his first full season on the ATP World Tour. Last month, the right-hander became the youngest US Open quarter-finalist since Andy Roddick in 2001. Rublev upset Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin before falling to eventual champion Rafael Nadal.

Read More: What’s Beyond Rublev’s Meteoric Rise?

The 6’2″ Russian reached another quarter-final earlier this month at the China Open in Beijing. He beat tour veterans Jack Sock and Tomas Berdych before losing to fellow #NextGenATP Zverev. Rublev now sits at a career-high No. 35 in the Emirates ATP Rankings.

Only two weeks remain in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan, which ends on 30 October, and will determine seven of the eight players who compete at the Next Gen ATP Finals. The eighth spot will be given to the winner of an Italian 21-and-under tournament. Rublev’s countryman Karen Khachanov is in third place in the Race with 1,045 points. Canadian Denis Shapovalov sits in fourth with 926 points.

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Challenger Q&A: McDonald Reflects On First Challenger Title In Fairfield

  • Posted: Oct 16, 2017

Challenger Q&A: McDonald Reflects On First Challenger Title In Fairfield

Mackenzie McDonald sits down with USTA Pro Circuit broadcaster Mike Cation after claiming his first ATP Challenger Tour title in Fairfield

The wait is finally over for Mackenzie McDonald. The 22 year old claimed his maiden ATP Challenger Tour title on Sunday in Fairfield, U.S.A., ousting countryman Bradley Klahn 6-4, 6-2 in 63 minutes.

McDonald had previously never advanced to a Challenger final, but he would thrive at the Northbay Healthcare Men’s Pro Championships, dropping just one set en route to lifting his first trophy. The Northern California native provided a positive moment for the local community, which had been dealing with devastating wildfires throughout the week.

McDonald is the seventh different American winner this year, joining Frances Tiafoe, Tennys Sandgren, Ryan Harrison, Noah Rubin, Michael Mmoh and Kevin King.

Mackie, which was a bigger weight off your shoulders – finally getting past the semi-finals of a Challenger or lifting the trophy?
I’m pretty satisfied with both. I’d like to say the title, but I’ve been in a lot of semi-finals and it was nice to get past that stage.

You also got past Tennys Sandgren (in the second round), having been 0-5 against him. A lot of milestones for you this week. What is this moment like for you?
I’m pretty aware. These past few weeks have had some milestones for me. Taking out Darian King in Tiburon after facing him last year and then beating Sandgren here, I was very happy about that one. I just feel like I’ve been working really hard with my coach. We’ve worked on so many things with my game and mentally too, I came out very composed. That was the extra thing that I needed.

You had two really tough losses recently. Sandgren in Tiburon and having match points last week against Michael Mmoh. How did you mentally reframe this for yourself, coming into this week?
Those were very tough matches. I lost both in tie-breaks. I talked with my other coach, Wayne, and he told me to just keep plugging away. Just stay persistent and that’s what I did out here. That’s all I can do, taking it one match at a time. For me, I’m trying to just enjoy what I’m doing. The rest will come.

It seems like you’ve been more aggressive in getting to net and ending points faster. Is that the main technical thing you guys have been doing?
That’s definitely my go-to game style that I can execute. I like to come to the net and it’s about getting there. Stepping in for balls from the baseline and being aggressive. I feel consistent with it too and that’s the big thing for me. Always looking for those opportunities. Matt has a great eye for the game and he’s been helping me so much.

It’s hard to implement changes like that, where you’re trying to move forward while playing big matches. You’re going to have some days where you’re not good at it. You have to trust that process. How difficult has it been mentally the past couple of weeks with those losses?
I feel like I’ve been serving better, so that gives me more confidence where I don’t have to just rely on my game from the back of the court. I can, if I need it, but I do feel like I have some options on the court. Sometimes I need to grind and sometimes I need to be aggressive. Hopefully I’m serving well and most of the time I’m returning well. I just thought I put it all together this week.

In the final, Bradley struggled from the start, but you pushed the pressure. In the second set, it looked like you wanted to hit a return winner right away and make it known that you were going to stay aggressive. 
I wanted to stay aggressive and not just make balls. I stayed with that despite not serving well. I was a little nervous and I’m sure Brad was too. I was able to compose myself quicker and once I got my feet under me and started to feel the ball better, I cruised from there.

You had family and friends come out this week. What is it like to have people that support you here for your first title?
I’m pretty fortunate. I have a lot of great people behind me, in my corner. They definitely have my best interests and I’ve built a great team around me. I’m happy with that. They’re all looking out for me.

How do you celebrate?
With a flight to Vegas, which sounds exciting, but it’s actually for a tournament. I’m flying with a USTA trainer so hopefully we’ll get a good dinner if we don’t get in too late.

ATP Challenger Tour 

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Klahn's Comeback Gathers Momentum In Fairfield

  • Posted: Oct 16, 2017

Klahn's Comeback Gathers Momentum In Fairfield

One year after returning from injury, it’s all beginning to click for Bradley Klahn

For Bradley Klahn, his comeback to tennis after years of injury has often felt like three steps forward and two-and-a-half steps back – at least until now. 

Klahn, a 27-year-old American who in 2014 reached a career-high of No. 63 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, is once again making inroads following a career-threatening back injury that derailed much of the progress he had made years ago. 

Recent weeks have seen the former Stanford All-American reach back-to-back finals at ATP Challenger Tour events in Monterrey and Fairfield, the latter of which continued amidst the devastating wildfires in the California countryside. 

“It’s really tragic what’s happened with the fires. It kind of puts tennis in perspective a lot, just knowing people who are personally affected by the fires here,” said Klahn. “You can see the devastation with the smoke. Hats off to the tournament because I know this has to have been one of the most stressful weeks for them.”

Klahn’s contest versus fellow California native Mackenzie McDonald in the Fairfield Challenger final was a rare positive for Northern California tennis fans, who have been dealing with reduced air quality amidst the flames.

The match also represented another positive step for Klahn. Despite losing 6-4, 6-2 to McDonald, Klahn celebrated back-to-back finals for the first time since winning both the Maui Challenger and the West Lakes Challenger in early 2014.

So what finally clicked for Klahn?

“I think the biggest thing is that I’m digging out tough matches. I’m competing well, I’m staying positive with myself and I’m not really letting the ups and downs of the day get to me quite as much as I felt like I did when I first started back.

“This is the first time that I am really trusting [my body] and I’m not worrying about the little aches and pains that come with playing professional tennis,” he added. “For a while there it always felt like something was kind of nagging at me. Now, this is my 11th match in two weeks – counting the doubles – and I feel good. Winning helps.” 

With former college rival Peter Lucassen joining Klahn’s team as a coach, the American feels that he’s back on track and is slowly transitioning his comeback into a career once more.

“I think he’s brought a fresh mindset,” said Klahn of Lucassen. “He’s also seen me throughout college – I played against him … so he knows my game, he knows what we’re working on; we’ve kept it simple.” 

Keeping things simple and trusting his body remains essential, according to Klahn, who despite his recent success isn’t getting too far ahead of himself. His efforts over the past fortnight will see him move back into the Top 250, allowing him entry into the more prolific events on ATP Challenger Tour.

“It’s been a great two weeks but it’s [only] two weeks in a year. It’s a long year, so now I feel like I’ve started to get in that rhythm and I’ve started to trust myself again.”

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5 Things We Learned From Shanghai

  • Posted: Oct 15, 2017

5 Things We Learned From Shanghai

We look into storylines that emerged during the penultimate Masters 1000 event of the season

1) Rest is best for Roger
They don’t call Roger Federer the ‘Swiss Maestro’ for nothing. The 36 year old has played a masterful schedule in 2017, helping him rise back to the No. 2 spot in the Emirates ATP Rankings with an outside chance at challenging Rafael Nadal for the year-end top spot. While many may point out his on-court play, some of that success boils down to something simpler: rest.

After losing in last year’s Wimbledon semi-finals, Federer took the rest of the year off to return to health, and that he did this season. The Swiss won the Australian Open, Wimbledon and this week captured his tour-leading third ATP World Tour Masters 1000 trophy in Shanghai. The timing of those victories are not a coincidence, either.

Federer won in Melbourne after his long layoff. Then he played only one tournament in nearly two months before winning in Indian Wells and Miami. He captured Wimbledon and Halle after skipping the clay season entirely. Now, he won his second title in Shanghai after taking time off following the US Open. Only one other player in the Top 10 has played as few tournaments as he has this season (17) — Nadal. Yet, the two rivals top the rankings. 

2) Rafa still favorite to finish season at No. 1
Despite Nadal’s 16-match winning streak coming to an end against Federer in the Shanghai final, there is some good news for the Spaniard. The 31 year old is still in control of his own destiny in the battle for the year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking. While he could have gained a virtually insurmountable lead by beating the Swiss Sunday, Nadal still leads Federer by 1,960 points in the rankings.

Nadal has won six titles this season, the sixth time he has achieved the mark in his career. The left-hander won ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Monte Carlo and Madrid to tie Novak Djokovic’s record of 30, and also captured two Grand Slam crowns at Roland Garros and the US Open.

3) Delpo remains dangerous, destined for Top 10 in 2018?
When Juan Martin del Potro is on, he is one of the toughest players on the ATP World Tour to beat. And he proved it again in Shanghai, coming back to eliminate third seed Alexander Zverev in the Round of 16 before advancing to the semi-finals, where he pushed Federer to three sets.

With a full schedule in the plans next year, del Potro may very well be destined to return to the Top 10 for the first time since 28 July 2014. The Argentine is projected to move up to No. 18 after his performance in Shanghai, and if he defends the 340 points he earned late last season, he will have a big opportunity to move up more early in 2018, as he missed this year’s Australian Open and did not play until the Delray Beach Open.

4) Dimitrov continues to impress, nearing London bid
The Bulgarian has never played in the Nitto ATP Finals. But as arguably his best season nears its zenith, he is closing in on qualifying for the year-end event for the first time.

Dimitrov sits in the No. 6 spot in the Emirates ATP Race To London, and is second in line to book his spot at The O2. David Goffin, next in line to qualify, is 705 points behind Dimitrov.

In Shanghai, Dimitrov showed plenty of resilience before exhibiting the skills that helped him return to the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings. The 26 year old saved three match points in a third-set tie-break victory over Ryan Harrison in his opener before ousting in-form World No. 17 Sam Querrey in straight sets. After pushing Nadal to five sets in Melbourne at the start of the year, he once again tested the Spaniard in China, losing in the quarter-finals in a two-hour, 32-minute three-setter.

5) Top two doubles pairs a step above
Top seeds Henri Kontinen and John Peers defeated second seeds Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo, 6-4, 6-2, to capture their first Shanghai title and earn their third win in four tries against the Polish-Brazilian team this season. That moved the Finnish-Australian combination to within 360 points of Kubot/Melo in the Emirates ATP Doubles Race To London.

The top four doubles seeds advanced to the Shanghai semi-finals, but it was once again apparent that Kontinen/Peers and Kubot/Melo are a step above their nearest competition. The third team in the London standings, Jean-Julien Rojer and Horia Tecau, are at 4,980 points, which is 2,170 points behind the second-placed Kontinen/Peers.

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