The penultimate ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event of the season, the Shanghai Rolex Masters, is poised for a dramatic finale. While the tournament is down to four players, the excitement is only increasing with tantalising match-ups on Saturday in the semi-finals.

Three of the top four seeds remain, with second seed Roger Federer the only player to have previously won the title. While No. 1 Rafael Nadal and No. 16 Juan Martin del Potro have reached the final, in 2009 and 2013, respectively, No. 4 Marin Cilic is appearing in his first Shanghai semi-final, playing to guarantee his spot in the Nitto ATP Finals.

Plenty is on the line in the day’s first singles match, as Nadal brings a 4-1 lead in his FedEx ATP Head2Head series against Cilic, who is looking for his second win against a World No. 1. But perhaps more importantly, the Spaniard will look to extend his 15-match winning streak, which would put on hold the Croatian’s opportunity to qualify for London.

“He always is a very dangerous opponent, and I think this surface, this court helps him,” said Nadal of Cilic. “Yeah, will be a tough one. It’s true that I am playing well. Let’s see. I know that I need to be very focused with my serve again, and I need to play aggressive and don’t let him play from comfortable positions. If not, I will be almost dead because he’s going to go for the shots and [it’s] going to be very difficult.”

Nadal is 9-0 in semi-final matches this season and is appearing in his fourth Shanghai semi-final (1-2). He reached the final in the event’s first year, 2009 (l. to Davydenko), and the semi-finals in 2013 (l. to del Potro) and 2015 (l. to Tsonga). Nadal, who has held in all 32 of his service games this week, is attempting to reach his tour-leading 10th final (6-3) of the season and 111th in his career (75-35). Nadal is also trying to earn a 31st career ATP Masters 1000 title, which would break the record that he shares with Novak Djokovic.

Cilic is playing in his third ATP World Tour Masters 1000 semi-final (1-1). He won his maiden Masters 1000 title at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati last year. Cilic, who has saved eight of nine break points to hold serve in 30 of 31 games this week, is 1-2 in finals (won the TEB BNP Paribas Istanbul Open) this season and 17-13 overall in his career. He has won at least one ATP World Tour title for 10 consecutive years.

In the evening match, Federer and del Potro meet for the 23rd time, and the third in 2017. Federer holds a 16-6 FedEx ATP Head2Head series advantage, including an 11-6 edge on hard courts.

Del Potro fell while running around a backhand to hit a forehand during the third set of his victory over Viktor Troicki in the quarter-finals, hurting his surgically-repaired left wrist. The Argentine’s communications manager Jorge Viale tweeted that he suffered a contusion.

“I did see the fall. I saw the match. It was a good match,” Federer said. “I hope for now that Juan Martin can recover and we can play a normal match tomorrow.”

Federer is making his fourth semi-final showing in Shanghai (2-1), winning the 2014 title (d. Simon), reaching the 2010 final (l. to Murray) and the semi-finals in 2012 (l. to Murray). He is 6-0 in semi-final matches in 2017 (5-1 in finals). The Swiss is trying to reach his 143rd final (93-49) and will tie Ivan Lendl for second place on the Open Era titles list with his next trophy. He owns the most Masters 1000 wins (349) and is No. 3 with 26 Masters 1000 titles.

Del Potro is attempting to climb into contention in the Emirates ATP Race To London, after starting the week at No. 25. He prevented the first Federer-Nadal clash at the US Open when he eliminated the Swiss in the quarter-finals at Flushing Meadows this September. Del Potro is appearing in his first ATP Masters 1000 semi-final since Shanghai in 2013, when he reached the final (l. to Djokovic). He is looking to advance to his first ATP World Tour final since winning the Intrum Stockholm Open last October (d. Sock). He has yet to win a Masters 1000 crown, advancing to three previous finals.

Del Potro will return to the Top 20 in the Emirates ATP Rankings on Monday for the first time since Oct. 6, 2014 (at No. 19).

Regardless of Saturday’s results, Shanghai will surely get an enthralling final on Sunday in the penultimate Masters 1000 event of the season.

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Leander Paes has won 54 tour-level doubles titles, including 13 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns, during his historic career. But the 44-year-old Indian still has one more Masters 1000 title to go to complete the Career Golden Masters.

In this latest installment of “My Masters 1000”, Paes talks with ATPWorldTour.com about that missing title, his favourite Masters 1000 event and which ATP World Tour stars he’d face in his dream Masters 1000 doubles match.

Which Masters 100 host city is your favourite and why?
Monte-Carlo, just for the view right on the Mediterranean, the clay courts there cut into the mountains, and when you sit up at the top at the players’ lounge and you look down on the centre court, and the other courts on the left, the whole Mediterranean and the port of Monte-Carlo is down in front of you and it’s really spectacular.

Which Masters 1000 title that you’ve won is your favourite and why?
That’s a tough one… I’ve won Shanghai a few times with three different partners (1998 with Mahesh Bhupathi, 2010 with Jurgen Melzer, 2012 with Radek Stepanek). So that one would probably be my favourite because I’ve just done well there year after year. Miami is also up there. I’ve won Miami three times, with three different partners in a row, so that one is up there as well. 

Anything in particular about Shanghai, besides the success?
The way it’s run. The Shanghai tournament, apart from the hotel being a little bit farther away, the guys who run the event just do a fantastic job there. The way they run it, it’s just top quality. The food is excellent, practice courts are plenty and they do a really good job there for us.

What is your favourite off-court memory at a Masters 1000 tournament?
So many… Every one of them have been so special because I’ve just had such a long career, it’s tough to pick out one… I’m just very blessed to be able to have had such a long career, and have so many great memories in this wonderful sport of ours.

What would be your dream match at a Masters 1000 tournament?
I would love to play with either one of the Bryan boys and play against Federer and Johnny McEnroe… Any surface, anywhere.

If you could only win one more Masters 1000 tournament, which would it be and why?
I think Madrid, obviously because I’ve won all the other eight several times. Madrid is the only one that eluded me… that’s the only one in my showcase that I need to complete.

Which player/champion do you consider to be the toughest competitor in Masters 1000 history?
Wow, there are some great competitors out there… Rafa Nadal comes to mind when he plays doubles. Federer comes to mind when he plays doubles. The Bryan twins, they are fantastic competitors…My benchmark is someone who, every time you go out to play him, shows up and puts it all in. And these four guys are up there.

How many second serves do you think you can make before a double fault eventually creeps in?

The benchmark may be a little lower than you think. Players in the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings average one double fault for approximately every 12 second serves they hit.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Top 10 players since the beginning of the 2015 season identifies that double faults are on the rise, and that Roger Federer leads the pack in double faulting the least.

Top 10 Average: Double Faults / Second Serves

• 2015 = One double fault / 13.4 second serves

• 2016 = One double fault /11.4 second serves

• 2017 to date = One double fault / 11.3 second serves

Federer is way above the Top 10 average of 11.3 in 2017, misfiring only once every 16.7 second serves. That’s slightly above his average since the beginning of the 2015 season, and a contributing factor to his resurgence back to No. 2 in the Emirates ATP Rankings.

Roger Federer: Average Double Faults / Second Serves

• 2015 = 1 double fault / 15.0 second serves (125/1878)

• 2016 = 1 double fault / 17.5 second serves (48/842)

• 2017 = 1 double fault / 16.7 second serves (79/1317)

• 2015 to 2017 average = 16.0 (252/4037)

2017 Top 10 Average: Doubles Faults / Second Serves Hit

Below are the Top 10 players during the past three seasons who committed the least amount of double faults per second serves hit, and their year-end Emirates ATP Ranking.

• 2015 = No. 9 Richard Gasquet: 1 double fault / 16.5 second serves (106/1749)

• 2016 = No. 4 Stan Wawrinka: 1 double fault / 14.5 second serves (158/2285)

• 2017 to date = No. 2 Roger Federer: 1 double fault / 16.7 second serves (79/1317)

Reducing double faults comes down to a combination of factors, including having a simple toss and clean service motion, being able to successfully handle scoreboard pressure, and having experience in the bigger moments.

While the current Top 10 average one double fault every 11.3 second serves hit, the leading 10 #NextGenATP players in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan are not that far behind.

They commit a double fault one of out every 9.7 second serves. The best performer is American Taylor Fritz, who is averaging one double fault every 13.4 second serves.

Fritz is currently in 10th position in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan, which will determine seven of the eight players who compete at the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals, to be held 7-11 November in Milan.

#NextGenATP Analysis: Current Emirates ATP Race To Milan Standings

Develop Your Own Game

The #NextGenATP stars create a clean benchmark for players at all levels to copy. Go to the practice court and hit 10 consecutive second serves, alternating between the deuce court and ad court. One double out of those 10 is pacing right at the #NextGenATP average.

If you commit only one double fault out of every 16 second serves hit, then you know what it feels like to be Federer taking titles, of which he has collected five this season.