Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates Rublev’s return game
The evolution of a tennis player typically develops along a pathway where the serve matures quicker than the return of serve.
Not so for Andrey Rublev.
The talented 19-year-old Russian already has one of the best return games on tour, fueling his meteoric rise up the Emirates ATP Rankings in the past three months to a career-high No. 37 this week.
Flash back just 12 weeks to mid-June and Rublev was not even ranked in the Top 100, losing in the second round of a clay-court ATP Challenger Tour event in Caltanissetta, Italy.
Fast forward three months to mid-September and he now has his first ATP World Tour 250 title under his belt after coming through qualifying to win at the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag. He followed that up with two Top 15 victories at the US Open (No. 9 Grigor Dimitrov and No. 14 David Goffin) to become the youngest quarter-finalist in New York City since Andy Roddick in 2001.
The improvement curve is about as steep as it gets.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis identifies the Muscovite’s return game is mature beyond his years. Rublev is ranked just 63rd in the Infosys ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD with a 257.6 rating in the past 52 weeks. He is all the way up seventh best on tour on the Return LEADERBOARD, with a 156.0 rating.
The average age of the other nine players in the Top 10 of the Return LEADERBOARD is 29 years old – 10 years his senior. The closest in age is Diego Schwartzman, who is 25. It normally takes players several years on tour to gather enough reps and experience when returning to reach the Top 10 in this category. Rublev is currently short-circuiting that theory.
Below are his impressive return metrics from the past 52 weeks.
Returning
|
Ranking |
Win Percentage / Rating
|
Break Points Converted
|
6 |
45.5%
|
Infosys Return Rating
|
7 |
156.0
|
2nd Serve Return Points Won
|
10 |
52.8%
|
1st Serve Return Points Won
|
14 |
31.3%
|
Return Games Won
|
14 |
26.4%
|
Infosys Nia Data identifies that when Rublev won the opening point returning in the 2017 season and forged ahead 0/15, he broke a remarkable 49 per cent (60/122) of the time. By contrast, 20-year-old Alexander Zverev, who is ranked No. 4 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, only broke 40 per cent (117/289) of the time.
It’s correct to factor in that Zverev has played more than double the amount of points than Rublev against higher ranked opposition, but it’s clear to see that the young Russian is more than taking care of business as he sets his own collision course with the Top 10.
Rublev’s most impressive return metric in the past 52 weeks is Break Points Converted, being sixth on tour winning 45.5 per cent of these critical momentum points. In 2017, he has converted 38 per cent (47/125) against first serves, and a decisive 60 per cent (40/67) against second serves.
Rublev is now the second highest ranked Russian behind 21-year-old Karen Khachanov, who is ranked just five spots ahead of him at No. 32. The third ranked Russian is 21-year-old Daniil Medvedev, who is ranked No. 61 this week. All three of these players are on track to compete at the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan from 7-11 November.
American multi-national bank becomes partner
The ATP today announced a new partnership that will see J. P. Morgan become a Platinum Partner and Official Banking Partner of the Nitto ATP Finals beginning in 2017. The news follows May’s announcement that the world’s biggest indoor tennis tournament would remain at The O2 in London through 2020.
“Our season finale in London has enjoyed great success since 2009, and continues to grow on a global level, attracting more than 100 million broadcast viewers in 2016. Today, we’re delighted to welcome J.P. Morgan as partner to our prestigious showcase event,” said Chris Kermode, ATP Executive Chairman & President. “This new agreement is a testament to what we have built over the last eight years at The O2, and we look forward to growing the tournament’s success even more with the support of such a world-renowned brand.”
“The Nitto ATP Finals tournament is the perfect fit for J.P. Morgan. The competition features the world’s best singles and doubles players at the top of their game. Earning a coveted spot at the season showdown is a result of hard work, focus and success throughout the year – all values we share at J.P. Morgan,” said Vis Raghavan, J.P. Morgan’s Head of Banking for the Europe, Middle East, and Africa and Deputy CEO of the region.
“The Nitto ATP Finals will be an exciting show for tennis fans everywhere, but especially for those who get to experience the action live here in London. We’re thrilled to help bring the best-of-the-best to The O2,” said Alessandro Barnaba, J.P. Morgan’s Co-Head of International Sales and Marketing.
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To be held 12-19 November, the Nitto ATP Finals welcomes more than 250,000 fans to The O2 arena each year, as well as generating a global TV viewership of more than 100 million, as the ATP’s best eight qualified singles players and doubles teams compete over eight days at the biggest indoor tennis tournament in the world.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have secured the first two singles berths to this year’s tournament. The players are locked in what appears to be a two-way battle for the coveted year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking, which could be decided in London for the second consecutive year. In 2016, Andy Murray needed to beat Novak Djokovic in the final to become the 17th man in history to finish the year No. 1.
One year ago, Kevin King was on the sidelines recovering from hip surgery. On Sunday, he became an ATP Challenger Tour champion.
King stormed past Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-1 to earn his maiden title at the Atlantic Tire Championships in Cary, North Carolina. The 26-year-old entered the week outside the Top 400 in the Emirates ATP Rankings and has soared 181 spots to a career-high No. 253 with the victory.
The American had never reached a Challenger final coming into Cary, but he would score impressive wins over top seed Ernesto Escobedo, Noah Rubin and Norrie to clinch the crown.
King, a native of Peachtree City, Georgia, starred for Georgia Tech University before turning pro in 2012. He graduated with a degree mechanical engineering.
What a week for Kevin King! World No. 434 stuns Cam Norrie 64 61 for his first #ATPChallenger title at the @AtlanticTireCh in Cary. pic.twitter.com/CFp0yqw12m
— ATP Challenger Tour (@ATPChallenger) September 17, 2017
This was your first semi-final in two and a half years. Then your first final. It looked like you came out and were ready to go aggressively from the start. Was that the gameplan?
I definitely wanted to come out and be aggressive and dictate. I know he’s a great player and when he starts getting control of points, he’s very tough to beat. I was not going to let that happen.
For a lot of people playing in their first Challenger final, nerves show up. You had a great approach of just going after some shots really early.
When you start swinging out a little bit, you feel more free. I found more of a rhythm from the start of the match.
You won a Futures last week in Canada and came down here to take a Challenger title. It’s rare to have that progression in back-to-back weeks. What’s been working for you?
I’ve been focusing on one match at a time. In Toronto last week I was able to work on a few things. I was able to get some good momentum with my game and translated that into this week. I pulled out a few tough matches and that helped me gain some confidence to go out and play well today.
Talk about your journey over the past couple of years. Being out for almost the entirety of 2016, do you have a better appreciation of the game and also of your game and what you’re able to do well?
Absolutely. Being out for a year makes you realize how special it is to be able to do what you love and play tennis at the highest level. It was good for me in that sense. I was able to do some coaching in the year I was out, with the Georgia Tech men’s team. Coaching tennis can give you a better understanding of the game in trying to get different people to improve in different areas. That helped me in taking the information I learned into this year.
In terms of the technical aspect, what has been the biggest difference for you?
I would say I was focusing on the fundamentals in all areas of my game. Going back to those basics and details really helped me progress at a faster rate when I was coming back. Focusing on those small details were huge in my game.
It also seems like there’s more intent now, in terms of your gameplan heading into a match. Is that part of the coaching factoring in there? That’s something you definitely have improved on in the past couple of years.
Yeah, absolutely. When I first started out, right out of college, I didn’t have an identity of how I wanted to be playing. I had different options in my game and I didn’t stick to one. Having the year off allowed me to take a look at my game and what I want to be doing out there. I was able to really find a game plan and stick to that and get better each week.
It’s pretty rare that you have a tournament director, Sean Ferreira, that’s also serving as the coach for one of the players. Your girlfriend is here as well. You said that Cary is almost like a second home. It had to be pretty emotional there to get that trophy in front of some people you love very much.
It was very special. There are so many people here that care about me and support me. To be able to have them here and cheering for me was very special.
You are now at No. 253 [in the Emirates ATP Rankings]. The Australian Open qualies cut last year was 249. What would that mean to you, at this point of your career?
That’s definitely one of the long-term goals in this comeback, to make it to one of the Grand Slams. I’m getting closer to that goal. Still more concerned with taking care of my game and trying to get better. We’ll let those goals take care of themselves. Looking forward to the rest of the year.
Copil joins Frenchman in second round
Two-time former champion and eighth seed Gilles Simon defeated Italian Andreas Seppi, the 2012 runner-up, 6-3, 6-0 on Monday at the Moselle Open. Former World No. 6 Simon, the 2010 and 2013 titlist, was broken in the fifth game of the first set, but immediately regrouped and went on to extend his perfect 6-0 FedEx ATP Head2Head record against Seppi. The Frenchman now faces Slovak Norbert Gombos or German qualifier Peter Gojowczyk in the second round.
In one other main draw match, Romania’s Marius Copil lost just three of his first service points and hit 12 aces to beat Alessandro Giannessi 6-3, 6-2 in 66 minutes for a meeting against third seed and defending champion Lucas Pouille.
Gojowczyk, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Vincent Millot and Simone Bolelli all qualified on Monday for the main draw.
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Tour veterans open accounts on day one
Sixth-seeded German Philipp Kohlschreiber, a quarter-finalist at the St. Petersburg Open 10 years ago, booked his place in the second round on Monday with a comprehensive 6-1, 6-3 victory over Russian wild card Evgeny Tyurnev in 61 minutes. Kohlschreiber, now 29-17 on the season and seeking his first ATP World Tour indoor title, will next face fellow German and qualifier Daniel Masur or Ricardas Berankis of Lithuania.
Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis, a former World No. 8 who is currently at No. 122 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, struck 18 aces to knock out 2009 runner-up Horacio Zeballos of Argentina 7-5, 6-4 in one hour and 52 minutes. He’ll now challenge Damir Dzumhur, who defeated sixth-seeded Italian Paolo Lorenzi 7-5, 7-5 in just under two hours.
John-Patrick Smith, Ernests Gulbis, Liam Broady and Masur all booked their places in the main draw as a result of coming through the qualifying competition.
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ATP World Tour 250 tournament begins Monday
#NextGenATP star Borna Coric and local favourite Evgeny Donskoy marked the launch of the St. Petersburg Open on Monday with a visit to Peter and Paul Fortress, founded by Peter the Great in 1703.
The duo took a guided tour of the cathedral and grounds before setting off the cannon to mark midday in the Russian city.
“It was very, very nice,” said Coric. “This is my first time here. I heard from many people that it’s actually a very nice city. I’ve been really enjoying it. I think this is one of the best 250’s in the whole year.
“I feel quite good. I’ve had a week and a half of preparation. I’m in very good shape and I’ve been playing very well. I hope I can play well here.”
“It was pretty nice,” said Donskoy. “This is my favourite city and I’m from Moscow! I’ve never been to this place and seen these things. I really enjoyed it. My favourite part was firing the cannon.
“It’s a local tournament for me and it’s my favourite tournament because they really do a good job. I really like the city. I have some of my friends here. I’m feeling good in practice, enjoying the place and preparing for the tournament. I’m just trying to do my best. I enjoy being here every year,” added Donskoy, who is making his sixth main draw appearance at this ATP World Tour 250 indoor hard court tournament.