Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at how the Top 10 handle five serving situations
The server has to factor in a kaleidoscope of different scenarios when attempting to hold serve in a match. The point, game and set scores are constantly in motion, as are the variety of serve strategies such as location, power and spin.
This week’s Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis focuses on five specific serving scenarios for the Top 10 players from the 2016 season, uncovering exactly where they rise to the occasion.
The five serve scenarios:
Overall win percentage.
Serving with new balls.
Holding serve immediately after breaking.
Serving for the set.
Serving for the match.
1. Overall Win Percentage: Top 10 Average = 86%
The Top 10 averaged holding serve 86 per cent of the time in 2016, with Milos Raonic leading the charge at 90 per cent, while Rafael Nadal was the lowest of the group at 81 per cent. Interestingly, Novak Djokovic is the only player on the list who boasts his highest winning percentage of the five specific scenarios in this overall, generic category.
Percentage of Holding Serve in Five Scenarios For The Top 10 In 2016
# | Player | Overall Win Percentage | Serving With New Balls | After Breaking Serve | Serving For Set | Serving For Match |
1 | Andy Murray | 85% | 84% | 85% | 88% | 86% |
2 | Novak Djokovic | 86% | 84% | 85% | 84% | 81% |
3 | Stan Wawrinka | 86% | 85% | 91% | 90% | 91% |
4 | Milos Raonic | 90% | 90% | 95% | 94% | 86% |
5 | Kei Nishikori | 84% | 86% | 86% | 92% | 89% |
6 | Gael Monfils | 84% | 89% | 87% | 92% | 97% |
7 | Marin Cilic | 88% | 83% | 90% | 84% | 91% |
8 | Rafael Nadal | 81% | 79% | 79% | 82% | 86% |
9 | Dominic Thiem | 83% | 84% | 85% | 88% | 92% |
Roger Federer | 90% | 90% | 90% | 100% | 94% | |
AVERAGE | 86% | 85% | 87% | 89% | 89% |
2. Serving With New Balls: Top 10 Average = 85%
It turns out that serving with new balls does not offer the Top 10 any advantage at all. In fact, their holding percentage dropped from 86 per cent to 85 per cent when they served with new balls. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka exactly mirrored the one per cent drop in performance, while Marin Cilic dropped a hefty five percentage points, from 88 per cent to 83 per cent. Frenchman Gael Monfils went the other way, jumping five percentage points, from 84 per cent to 89 per cent.
3. Holding After Breaking Serve: Top 10 Average = 87%
The Top 10 rose one percentage point above normal following a break of serve, with Raonic and Wawrinka both leaping five percentage points. These two players really capitalised on breaking serve, reminding us of the old tennis saying that a break is not a break until you hold in the very next game.
4. Serving For The Set: Top 10 Average = 89%
Former World No. 1 Roger Federer led the charge in 2016 in this category, holding serve 100 per cent of the time when serving for the set. It was the only perfect mark scored by any Top 10 player in any of the five categories. Kei Nishikori also enjoyed great success here, posting an eight percentage-point jump from his regular holding percentage of 84 per cent, up to 92 per cent.
5. Serving For The Match: Top 10 Average = 89%
This is where Dominic Thiem found his mojo, jumping nine percentage points from his season average, moving from 83 per cent to 92 per cent. Only Monfils (97 per cent) and Federer (94 per cent) posted higher numbers serving it out than the 23-year-old Austrian.
Holding serve brings many moving parts to the table, and we can clearly see that the elite players seize their opportunities in a variety of different situations.
Winning the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals would bring Kei Nishikori the biggest prize of his career. And, as tennis journalist and author Mark Hodgkinson writes, glory in south-east London would only add to Nishikori’s fame and celebrity in Japan.
Kei Nishikori can fill a stadium without even playing a match. Anyone who had imagined that the Japanese public’s love and hysteria for Nishikori couldn’t possibly become any more intense – that peak-Kei had already been established – was made to reconsider during this season’s Tokyo tournament. That was when one of his practice sessions drew an audience of more than 9,000.
That figure even astounded some of the tournament’s organisers (who have seen some hysteria in their time, having previously not publicised his training schedule for fear of a crush). It would seem we have reached a new level of intensity in the relationship between Nishikori and his public – you suspect that crowds will now gather in Tokyo if all he is doing is tidying his drink bottles, or tying and retying his shoelaces. And you think it’s going to stop here? Already the most celebrated Asian player in history, and someone who can’t go anywhere in Japan without some “craziness”, Nishikori seemingly still has some way to travel when it comes to his fame and celebrity.
Why, winning this week’s Barclays ATP Worlds Tour Finals, which would be the most significant title of his tennis life, would only add to his standing in Japan, where he will be one of the faces of the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo (which will only mean more billboards, magazine covers, television commercials and social media buzz). There are dozens of Japanese journalists in Greenwich who are covering every move that Nishikori makes, on and off this indoor hard court: Whatever happens in London will captivate millions in Tokyo and beyond, especially in Shimane, where he was born.
It’s sometimes said that Andy Murray has more pressure loaded on to his shoulders, and into his racquet bag, than any other truly elite player on the ATP World Tour. After all, he’s the only one who is the prime focus at a home Grand Slam, with Wimbledon such a stressful experience for him that during the run-in he often breaks out in mouth ulcers.
But, for all that, it’s a moot point whether it’s Murray or Nishikori who has to deal with the greatest scrutiny and expectation from his nation. Imagine if Murray stumbled through his opening round at Wimbledon, and then retired from his second match because of injury, and you can appreciate the levels of despair and disappointment in Tokyo last month as that’s how Nishikori’s tournament played out. Like Murray, Nishikori’s development as a tennis player has included learning to be comfortable as a public figure. No wonder, then, that Nishikori bases himself in Florida – where he can stroll the streets without a disguise – to protect himself from the madness: “It’s difficult in Tokyo – I have to wear sunglasses, a hat, a mask, everything.”
According to his coach Michael Chang, Nishikori is naturally “on the shy, quiet side – although he does become a bit more talkative around his Japanese friends”. “For the most part, I just tell Kei that dealing with the pressure is just part of the territory for being one of the best in the world,” says Chang. “You need to find a balance in your life and to keep things in perspective. You have to ask yourself how important it is what everyone else is saying about you. And, more importantly, you have to ask yourself how much pressure you’re putting on yourself, and whether that’s the right thing to be doing.”
Nishikori’s fame grew quickly in 2014 when he became the first Asian man to appear in a Grand Slam singles final (he was the runner-up to Croatia’s Marin Cilic at that year’s US Open) and then the first Asian man to play singles at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. Impressing as a debutant at The O2, he made the last four that year, with his semi-final watched by 10 million people in Japan. He qualified once again last November, though on that occasion he didn’t make it out of his group.
The only Japanese in history to be ranked in the Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, he has played some fine tennis this season, which brought him the title in Memphis for a fourth successive year, as well as runner-up finishes at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Miami and Toronto and appearances in the finals of the ATP World Tour 500 events in Barcelona and Basel, plus a bronze medal at the Rio Olympics and a victory over Murray in the quarter-finals of the US Open (and that was when the Briton was on the best run of his career, after winning Wimbledon and the Olympics). With every point, game, set and match that Nishikori wins, his followers grow ever more committed.
Living in the United States allows Nishikori to focus on his training (with sessions that don’t attract thousands). As he has said, “nobody cares about me there in Florida… If I stayed in Japan, I think I would just go crazy. By living in the United States, I can concentrate on my tennis and I can practise and play all day, and that’s something you have to do. If I was living in Japan, there would be lots of things that I wouldn’t be able to do.
“You have to keep on training hard and not allow yourself to be distracted, and to remind yourself you’re working hard because you’re chasing a dream. You also have to remember that you’re playing for yourself and not for anyone else – that helps you to deal with the pressures.”
ATP and Unicef announce partnership
The ATP and Unicef have today announced a new partnership at the world prestigious season-ending Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, set to take place from 13-20 November at The O2 in London.
The partnership will see the launch of the Super 8, in which the world’s best eight qualified tennis players come together at the season-ending finale on a mission to help Unicef raise awareness and vital funds to protect children from danger.
Unicef UK Executive Director, Mike Penrose said: “Right now millions of children are in danger. They’re facing violence, disease, hunger and the chaos of war and disaster. Through the power of sport we can transform children’s lives and we are incredibly excited to team up with ATP at one of the biggest events on the tennis calendar. With the help of the Super 8, we aim to raise vital funds so that Unicef can continue helping to protect children by providing life-saving food, vaccines and education.”
Throughout the tournament, short films about Unicef’s work, narrated by players in the Super 8 will be broadcast in the stadium, giving spectators the opportunity to text to donate throughout the eight-day event. To kick start the fundraising, the ATP has committed to donating the proceeds from the sale of all children’s tickets to the tournament to Unicef.
Chris Kermode, ATP Executive Chairman & President said: “We are delighted to partner with Unicef and to launch the Super 8 campaign at our season finale, as we aim to unite the tennis family in supporting Unicef’s work to help some of the most disadvantaged children around the world. We are particularly pleased to be able to donate the proceeds from children’s tickets sales towards the campaign. We hope this gives even more reason for children to come down to The O2 across the eight days of the tournament to watch some world class tennis.”
The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals have attracted more than 1.8 million fans to The O2 arena since the tournament moved to London in 2009. The tournament features the world’s best eight qualified singles players and doubles teams battling to win the biggest indoor tennis tournament in the world.
Defending champion and Unicef Goodwill Ambassador, Novak Djokovic, and Wimbledon champion and Unicef UK Ambassador, Andy Murray, were the first two singles players to qualify for this year’s tournament. Djokovic and Murray will be joined by Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem as the world’s best battle for the final tournament of the season at The O2.
The prestigious tournament has been contested in major cities around the world with a rich history dating back to the birth of The Masters in 1970 in Tokyo. Since 2000, the event has taken place in cities such as Lisbon, Sydney and Shanghai, before moving to London in 2009 where it will be held through 2018.
All eyes will be on Mahut/Herbert and Murray/Soares
For the second consecutive year, fans will celebrate a new year-end No. 1 doubles team and doubles player on the ATP World Tour. And it will all come down to the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, which starts Sunday at The O2 in London.
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Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut, currently No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Doubles Team Rankings, control their fate in both races. The Frenchmen can clinch the team year-end No. 1 with their first Barclays ATP World Tour Finals title.
Barclays ATP World Tour Finals Points By Round – Final Year-End Doubles Ranking Points
Herbert/Mahut |
W |
F |
SF |
3-0 |
2-1 |
1-2 |
0-3 |
|
3-0 |
9325 |
8825 |
8425 |
8425 |
||||
2-1 |
9125 |
8625 |
8225 |
8225 |
||||
1-2 |
8925 |
8425 |
8025 |
8025 |
||||
0-3 |
8725 |
8225 |
7825 |
7825 |
||||
Murray/Soares |
W |
F |
SF |
3-0 |
2-1 |
1-2 |
0-3 |
|
3-0 |
8750 |
8250 |
7850 |
7850 |
||||
2-1 |
8550 |
8050 |
7650 |
7650 |
||||
1-2 |
8350 |
7850 |
7450 |
7450 |
||||
0-3 |
8150 |
7650 |
7250 |
7250 |
The individual year-end No. 1 race is much simpler: Herbert/Mahut need to win only one round-robin match for the 34-year-old Mahut to secure year-end No. 1. Should Herbert/Mahut go 0-3 during round-robin play, Jamie Murray/Bruno Soares need to go undefeated in round-robin play and win the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals title for Soares to pass Mahut.
Herbert/Mahut, in London for the second time, will try to finish the season like they started. They won the year’s first three ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Miami and Monte-Carlo and captured the ATP World Tour 500 event at The Queen’s Club in June. But they haven’t celebrated a Sunday victory since July, when they won their first Wimbledon title.
Herbert/Mahut will be more familiar with The O2 this season. They went 1-2 during round-robin play last year. They’ve also played well indoors this season, reaching the final at the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris last Sunday (l. to Kontinen/Peers).
Barclays ATP World Tour Finals Points By Round – Final Year-End Doubles Ranking Points
Mahut |
W |
F |
SF |
3-0 |
2-1 |
1-2 |
0-3 |
|
3-0 |
10050 |
9550 |
9150 |
9150 |
||||
2-1 |
9850 |
9350 |
8950 |
8950 |
||||
1-2 |
9650 |
9150 |
8750 |
8750 |
||||
0-3 |
9450 |
8950 |
8550 |
8550 |
||||
Soares |
W |
F |
SF |
3-0 |
2-1 |
1-2 |
0-3 |
|
3-0 |
8660 |
8160 |
7760 |
7760 |
||||
2-1 |
8460 |
7960 |
7560 |
7560 |
||||
1-2 |
8260 |
7760 |
7360 |
7360 |
||||
0-3 |
8060 |
7560 |
7160 |
7160 |
Herbert/Mahut have been drawn in Group Fleming/McEnroe and boast a winning FedEx ATP Head2Head record this season against two of their three round-robin foes: Fourth seeds Marc Lopez/Feliciano Lopez (1-1); fifth seeds Henri Kontinen/John Peers (3-1); and seventh seeds Raven Klaasen/Rajeev Ram (1-0).
“We know all the teams quite well. The teams are all very good and all the matches will be very tight. We’ll have to be up to par,” Herbert said last Sunday in Paris.
Herbert/Mahut, with 7,825 Emirates ATP Doubles Rankings points, will try to hold off second seeds Murray/Soares, who are 575 points behind the top seeds. With 1,500 points up for grabs in London, Murray/Soares could cap off an impressive debut season together by finishing World No. 1.
Murray/Soares will lead the Group Edberg/Jarryd, which includes two teams very familiar with the season finale and one team making its debut. Bob Bryan/Mike Bryan will be going for their fifth Barclays ATP World Tour title in their 14th appearance. Murray/Soares lost their only 2016 meeting against the Bryans (Rome).
The Briton/Brazilian pairing have captured three titles this season, including two of the biggest hard-court crowns, the Australian Open and the US Open. Murray/Soares will also have some London experience to use at The O2. Murray played at the season finale last season with then partner John Peers, going 1-2 in round-robin play.
Herbert/Mahut and Murray/Soares also split their two 2016 meetings. The Frenchmen won the first match-up, in the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters final. But Murray/Soares earned revenge during the US Open semi-finals. Ivan Dodig/Marcelo Melo will be making their fourth appearance at the finale. Their best result came in 2014 when they reached the final (l. to Bryan/Bryan). The Croatian/Brazilian team split their two meetings with Murray/Soares this season. Debutants Treat Huey/Max Mirnyi will play Murray/Soares for the first time this year in London.
All of this unknown is a relative change compared to past years in the ATP World Tour doubles world. Last season marked just the first time since 2008 that the Bryans hadn’t concluded a season as the year-end No. 1 doubles team. The Americans have celebrated that status 10 times overall – 2003, 2005-07, 09-14.
Marcelo Melo finished 2015 as the year-end No. 1 doubles player, and Horia Tecau and Jean-Julien Rojer ended the season as the 2015 year-end No. 1 doubles team after winning the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.
Will Murray clinch his first title at season finale?
Having this week conquered the truest test of real quality and consistency, the ascent to No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, will this year’s Barclays ATP World Tour Finals be a glorious homecoming for Andy Murray?
The Scot has competed at the prestigious season finale on seven occasions, but only three times has he graced the semi-finals: in 2008 (l. to Davydenko), when the event was held in Shanghai, China, and in 2010 (l. to Nadal) and 2012 (l. to Federer) at The O2 in London.
“It’s been a great year and I want to finish as well as I can,” said Murray. “I’m not so much thinking about finishing as the World No. 1. I just want to play well at The O2. I’ve not always played well there and I want to do myself justice.”
In his past two Barclays ATP World Tour Finals appearances, Murray has gone 2-4 and hasn’t progressed through the round-robin stage. But the 2016 season finale could have a very different outcome for Murray, who is riding a 19-match winning streak, including four straight ATP World Tour titles.
“Maybe this year will be different to the last one,” said Murray. “I’ve always gone into London trying to do well, and it’s never quite happened for me but I’ve had a couple of tough losses. Against Rafa [Nadal] in the semis once, and one year [2014] I was really trying to chase the points to get in there and I played probably too much to do that. I am looking forward to it.”
Murray also has an impressive 11-1 (.917) indoor record this year, with his only loss coming to Juan Martin del Potro in a five-set Davis Cup semi-final rubber in September.
But on Monday, Murray was drawn to compete next week in Group John McEnroe, alongside Stan Wawrinka (9-7 FedEx ATP Head2Head record), Kei Nishikori (7-2) and Marin Cilic (11-3).
While he has an 11-5 record against Top 10 opponents this year, his losses have come to Djokovic (Australian Open, Roland Garros, Madrid), Nadal (Monte-Carlo) and Nishikori (US Open). He also lost to then World No. 14 Cilic in Cincinnati.
With Ivan Lendl and Jamie Delgado, his good friend, courtside at The O2, nothing will be left to chance in Murray’s dual quest for the title and year-end No. 1 ranking. Destiny will be in his own hands, because if he wins the title he is guaranteed to finish No. 1.