The scoreboard dictates strategy a lot more than you think.

Players need just four points to win a game, but there are actually 18 different point scoreboard combinations that represent being ahead, behind or equal with the opponent. Each point won or lost alters the percentages of closing out the game, directly affecting the strategy players employ based on the pressure and risk the scoreboard delivers.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the world, and their performance at each individual point score for the past 18 months, highlights two critical percentages that have a snowball effect on their overall strategies. The current Top 10 players included in the analysis are Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem, Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet.

The first obvious percentage to consider is the current score. The second more important percentage that is often overlooked is the “gap” number, which is all about what happens next. If players win or lose the point, what is the “percentage point gap” between those two future, possible scores. That’s where the secret sauce exists.

The gap number is all about risk assessment. The higher the number, the more risk there is, and the more players should gravitate to higher-percentage primary patterns of play. The lower the number, the less inherent risk is involved, which enables players to dip into their secondary bag of tricks, surprising the opponent with a change-up play.

Five Crucial Scores When Serving*

*Stats based on current Top 10 players from January 2015 to present.

The following assessment provides a strategic roadmap for players at all levels of the game to find the right strategy based on the future “percentage gap” number at each score.

HIGH RISK (gap above 50 percentage points)
30/40, Ad Out, 15/30, 15/40

Interesting to note that these points are all played in the Ad court. Making a first serve here is critical. Typically it will be directed at the less potent backhand return, and the server will look for a “Serve +1” forehand to attack right back through the Ad court behind a right-handed opponent. The ideal outcome will be a forced error, much preferred over hitting a winner or trying to outlast an opponent by waiting for an unforced error.

MEDIUM RISK (gap 25 – 50 percentage points)
30/30, 0/30, Deuce, 0/40, 0/15, 15/15

Players will still be gravitating to higher percentage patterns here, beginning with a first serve in play. It’s then all about targeting the opponent’s weaker side and still looking to force errors. On tour, the average baseline win percentage is typically around 46 per cent, while the net offers a much higher return at 66 per cent. Looking for a short ball and approaching with a big forehand to the backhand is a really good fit here. Keeping great court position around the baseline and removing time in the opponent’s preparation are also key factors.

LOWER RISK (gap 2 – 25 percentage points)
40/30, Ad In, 0/0, 30/15, 15/0, 40/15, 30/0, 40/0

Being ahead in the score delivers lower overall risk and enables players to play bigger and bolder than normal. Aces and rally winners will live more here, as well as clever secondary patterns to the opponent’s strengths.

Top seed Kevin Anderson advanced to the third round of the Aegon Open Nottingham on Tuesday with a 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3 win against Ivan Dodig of Croatia. The South African hit 21 aces and never faced a break point in the two-hour and six-minute contest.

The win is just Anderson’s fourth of the season. The 6’8” right-hander has struggled with left knee and right elbow injuries. In October, he reached a career-high No. 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings. But the 30 year old has since fallen to No. 24 and has had to retire from two matches and withdraw altogether from seven tournaments.

Anderson next will face 14^th seed Fernando Verdasco, who beat Victor Estrella Burgos of the Dominican Republic 6-1, 4-6, 6-3. Verdasco is coming off one of his biggest wins of the season last week when he beat World No. 5 Stan Wawrinka at The Queen’s Club in London.

The defending champion at Nottingham is out. Denis Istomin fell in the first round to Bosnian Damir Dzumhur 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-4. Their match resumed on Tuesday at the start of the third set after it was suspended because of darkness on Monday. Last year, Istomin became the first Uzbekistani to win an ATP World Tour event.

Dzumhur also played his second-round match on Tuesday, falling to Canadian Vasek Pospisil 6-1, 6-4. Pospisil next will face American Steve Johnson, who beat Aussie John Millman 6-2, 6-2.

Fourth seed Alexandr Dolgopolov dismissed home favourite Kyle Edmund 6-4, 7-6(5). The Ukrainian won 80 per cent of his service points (49/61) and earned the match’s lone break against Edmund, a member of the Next Generation. Dolgopolov next will face 31-year-old Canadian qualifier Frank Dancevic, who outlasted Kazakhstan’s Mikhail Kukushkin 4-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(2).

All remaining first-round matches were completed on Tuesday, Day 2 of Wimbledon qualifying. #NextGen stars Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov of Russia moved into the second round along with former junior Wimbledon champion Luke Saville of Australia.

Top seed Khachanov recorded his first Wimbledon victory by defeating Yan Bai of China, 6-3, 6-4. The 20 year old broke into the Top 100 of the Emirates ATP Rankings this year after strong results, including a win against Top 20 player Roberto Bautista Agut en route to reaching the third round of the ATP World Tour 500 event in Barcelona. Next up for Khachanov is Enrique Lopez-Perez of Spain.

Rublev also moved into the second round with a convincing win over American Alexander Sarkissian, 6-1, 6-4. The 18-year-old Rublev won his first ATP Challenger Tour title in February in Quimper, France. His campaign for a debut main draw appearance at Wimbledon continues with a match against British wild card Marcus Willis.

The 25-year-old Willis recorded the upset of the day by defeating No. 4 seed Yuichi Sugita of Japan, 1-6, 6-4, 6-1. The World No. 778 in the Emirates ATP Rankings was playing his first tournament since January and only his second of 2016 after being sidelined by injury. Willis also recorded his first career win over a Top 100 player in the Emirates ATP Rankings and first win at Wimbledon since 2009.

Another player who advanced on Monday was Saville, 2011 junior Wimbledon champion, who survived a stern test against Oriol Roca Batalla of Spain, 6-1, 4-6, 6-4. The 22 year old is looking to advance through qualifying at Wimbledon for the third consecutive year. He’ll next play Aldin Setkic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who defeated No. 26 seed Maximo Gonzalez of Argentina.

Marcelo Arevalo of El Salvador also broke ground by becoming the first player from El Salvador to ever win a qualifying round at a Grand Slam. The 25-year-old defeated Constant Lestienne of France, 6-4, 7-6(3). He’ll look to keep his run going when he plays Matthew Barton of Australia, who prevailed 8-6 in the final set over No. 32 seed Marco Trungelliti of Argentina.

Other players to advance on Tuesday include 38-year-old Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo of Spain and Mohamed Safwat of Egypt, who became the first player from his country to win a match at Wimbledon since Ismael El Shafei in 1976.

All second-round qualifying matches will be held on Wednesday, with the feature match of the day pitting #NextGen star and No. 29 seed Quentin Halys of France against Zhe Li of China.

Click here to see all results from Day 2 of Wimbledon qualifying.