It’s not how many winners you hit. It’s how many errors you don’t make.

Novak Djokovic defeated Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 to win a record fifth BNP Paribas Open title by getting on the right side of the most important equation in our sport. Raonic won only two of the 14 games played, but amazingly hit more winners, 16-15.

That may seem like an anomaly, but it’s actually quite common for the match loser to accumulate more winners. In general, around 70 per cent of all points on the ATP World Tour end in errors and around 30 per cent end in winners.

Experience has taught the elite players to focus on dominating the larger pool of points and generally care very little about hitting more winners than their opponents. In this final, there were 31 winners hit out of 101 points, producing a very typical ratio of 69 per cent errors and 31 per cent winners.

The final score may have looked abnormal, but the mix of winners and errors was extremely typical of a pro tour encounter. Djokovic has built a spectacular career dominating the much larger 70 per cent pool of points, which makes him for a very tough match-up for the free-hitting Canadian.

Raonic was clearly miss-firing with his ultra-aggressive game style and could not yield a big enough advantage out of the smaller 30 per cent pool of winners to trouble the World No. 1. Raonic left the court after the first set to have an injury attended to, and he was never able to sustain any kind of momentum to pressure the Super Serb.

2nd Serve Domination

In the opening set, Raonic only won 3/16 second serve points, and 0/14 in the second set. That’s a horror story for one of the biggest servers in the game.

In set 1, Djokovic targeted 71 per cent (10/14) of his second-serve returns right down the middle third of the court, with the remaining four all wide in the ad court aimed at Raonic’s less potent backhand wing.

Deep returns to the middle of the court was the classic Andre Agassi strategy, giving the returner a big target to land a powerful return and providing no angle for the server.

Coming into the Indian Wells final, Raonic was winning 54 per cent of his second-serve points in his five preceding matches. He won 58 per cent in all of 2015 and had won 55 per cent so far this year. But against Djokovic, he managed to win 10 per cent (3/30).

With Raonic serving at 0-4 deuce in the second set, he had only 29 per cent of his serves unreturned, which was lower than Djokovic at 31 percent. Those numbers would have seemed impossible to consider before the match.

Djokovic, as you would expect, performed admirably in this key strategic area, winning 67 per cent (8/12) of his second serve points, including hitting only four second serves in the entire second set and winning half of those points.

Baseline Superiority

Once the point extended past a serve and return, Djokovic won a staggering 80 per cent (41/51) of the baseline rallies. Djokovic blended amazing defense with suffocating court position, extending the 6’5” Canadian out to the edges of the court.

Raonic was pressing hard against the World No. 1, especially off the forehand wing, where he committed 18 unforced errors to the Serb’s one. Raonic was credited with 27 unforced errors for the match to Djokovic’s four. Those are the numbers that form the bull’s-eye of who won and why.

Ultimately it does not matter if Djokovic loses the battle of hitting winners by one (15-16) if he can get his opponent to miss the court as much as Raonic did.

Overall, 62 per cent of points ended in the first four shots, 31 per cent in the 5-9 shot range, and only seven per cent were extended past nine shots, with Djokovic having a healthy winning percentage in all three.

Victories like this one send a chill through the rest of the tour as opponents desperately search for answers to get the upper hand against the rampaging Serb.

A LOOK BACK

BMW Of Dallas Irving Tennis Classic (Irving, Texas): The ATP Challenger Tour returned to Irving for the fifth consecutive year. In the second Challenger final of the year pitting two Top 100 players against each other, unseeded Marcel Granollers produced his best tennis of the week to rout No. 4 seed and defending champion Aljaz Bedene, 6-1, 6-1.  The match took just 59 minutes from Granollers, marking the second Challenger final this year to finish in under an hour. With the win, Granollers also stopped Bedene’s streak of seven consecutive victories in Challenger finals.

The veteran Spaniard was in red-hot form throughout the prestigious $125,000+H event, dropping just three games in his final two matches. His victory on Sunday gave him the fourth Challenger title of his career and his first in six years, having last prevailed on home soil at Tarragona in 2010.

Read: Knowles Returns To The Court In Irving | Irving Keeps Players Coming Back

Jalisco Open presentado por Aeromexico (Guadalajara, Mexico): With a combined age of 67, the final between Stephane Robert (35) and No. 5 seed Malek Jaziri (32) was the second-oldest so far this year on the ATP Challenger Tour. Both players showed no signs of age in the grueling baseline rallies throughout the match, but it was Jaziri who narrowly prevailed in front of a raucous stadium crowd, 5-7 6-3, 7-6 (5).

This week also marked a brilliant turn in form from Jaziri, who hadn’t won two consecutive matches at a tournament this year prior to arriving in Guadalajara. The victory this week marks the fourth ATP Challenger Tour title of Jaziri’s career.

Despite the loss, Robert appears poised to soon rejoin the Top 100 at age 35. He’s climbed more than 70 spots in the Emirates ATP Rankings since the start of the year after recording several impressive results, including a third-round finish at the Australian Open and winning the ATP Challenger Tour event in New Delhi.

Kazan Kremlin Cup (Kazan, Russia): The seventh annual edition of the Kazan Kremlin Cup saw unseeded Tobias Kamke breeze through the draw without the loss of a set, comfortably dispatching local favourite Aslan Karastev in the final, 6-4, 6-2. The win gave Kamke his eighth career singles title on the ATP Challenger Tour and his fifth straight win in Challenger finals.  Currently ranked No. 244 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, the 29-year-old is projected to jump back into the Top 200 with his victory in Kazan.

Challenger Banque Nationale de Drummondville (Drummondville, Canada): In an all-British final, No. 4 seed Daniel Evans continued his climb back up the rankings by prevailing against lucky loser Edward Corrie, 6-3, 6-4. It was the second all-British final of the year for Evans, having lost last month in Dallas to Kyle Edmund, and his first title of 2016. Earlier this year, the 25-year-old also qualified for the main draw of the Australian Open for the first time in his career.

But despite the loss on Sunday, the week was a success for Corrie. The world No. 531 reached his first Challenger final at age 28 and became the first lucky loser to reach a Challenger final since Yasutaka Uchiyama in Lexington last July.

The week also yielded strong results for Canadian tennis. Four Canadians reached the quarter-finals at a Challenger for just the second time (Calgary ’93), with wild card Denis Shapovalov becoming the first 16 year old to reach a Challenger semi-final since Stefan Kozlov achieved that feat in Sacramento in October 2014. Shapovalov also became the first player born in the year 1999 to win a main draw match on the ATP Challenger Tour.

Read: Teen Shapovalov Claims Titanic Point At Drummondville Challenger 2016 | Sixteen-Year-Old Shapovalov Enjoys Dream Week In Drummondville

Guangzhou GDD Cup (Guangzhou, China): Persistent rain forced three quarter-final matches and both semi-final matches to be played on Sunday, resulting in a pending Monday final between No. 5 seed Lukas Lacko and No. 7 seed Nikoloz Basilashvili. This is the fourth ATP Challenger Tour final in the last six months for Lacko, having won in Izmir and finished runner-up in both Bratislava and Tashkent.

Read: Zhang Continues Hot Streak In Guangzhou

A LOOK AHEAD

There are two tournaments on the calendar this week, with a $75,000 event Guangzhou (China) and a $50,000 event in San Luis Potosi (Mexico) set to commence on Tuesday. The top four seeds in Shenzhen are all ranked inside the Top 100 of the Emirates ATP Rankings, with World No. 86 Taro Daniel earning billing as the top seed. Last week’s finalists in Guangzhou, Lukas Lacko and Nikoloz Basilashvili, will look to continue their strong form as the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds this week.

In San Luis Potosi, world No. 113 Michael Berrer is the top seed. Last year’s runner-up, James McGee, is the No. 8 seed this year, while 2012 champion Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo is another notable name in the draw.

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Novak Djokovic confirmed what millions must have thought while watching him defeat Milos Raonic in the BNP Paribas Open final on Sunday. The World No. 1 was “in the zone.”

“I was,” Djokovic said when asked directly.

It has become a familiar place for the Serb, who won his record fifth Indian Wells title by beating Raonic 6-2, 6-0. Djokovic broke the Canadian six times and never faced a break point during the one-hour and 17-minute match.

Week in and week out on the ATP World Tour, Djokovic continues to impress even long-time watchers of the sport. He somehow consistently lifts his game during tournament’s biggest moments and routinely knocks off other top players in the world.

Djokovic has won his last 17 matches in Indian Wells and 16 in ATP Masters 1000 tournaments since his last loss in the 2015 Cincinnati final to Roger Federer. The 28-year-old Serb also has made the finals of the last 10 ATP Masters 1000 tournaments that he’s competed in, going to back to 2014 Paris-Bercy. Djokovic is 8-2 during that stretch.

He also has won three consecutive Masters 1000 titles and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. For 2016, Djokovic is 22-1.

The past two weeks in Indian Wells were no exception, either. Djokovic won in straight sets against World No. 5 Rafael Nadal and against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, No. 9 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, before cruising against Raonic.

“I’m just glad to be able to raise the level of my game as the tournament progresses, and that’s something that I have been doing in the last two years particularly on the big events,” Djokovic said.

Sunday’s win gave Djokovic his 27^th ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title, leveling him with Rafael Nadal. The win also marked his third consecutive Indian Wells championship.

“I have been managing to win most of the big matches against Top 10 players,” Djokovic said. ”Obviously I have a certain routine and certain preparation for these big matches that works for me.”

He’s hoping to maintain that routine and his success as the ATP World Tour season continues.

“It has obviously been a great couple of weeks,” Djokovic said. “To win this tournament five times is a fantastic achievement for my team and I.”

Returning from injury to make the final of an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event would be a considerable feat for any player, but Milos Raonic believes he still has room for improvement after dropping a 6-2, 6-0 decision to Novak Djokovic at the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday.

“I need to work harder,” the Canadian said. “I need to execute better. I think I’m on the right track. It’s about putting things together and being effective.

“I think I have it within me, but obviously I need to reach a lot deeper to find that execution.”

Despite being broken five times, Raonic did not do badly on first-serve points, winning 23 of 30 against the No. 1 player in the Emirates ATP Rankings. However, he only landed 50 per cent of first serves and managed to win just 10 per cent of second-serve points (3/30).

“You know what Novak can bring, and you know that he’s the best returner probably of all time,” Raonic noted. “Not only is he good when the ball is close to him, he’s even very good when it’s far away from him, making you play and neutralizing the point very well in that situation.”

The big server look to be hampered by a lower-body injury and took a medical time-out after the first set to receive treatment.

“[It felt] similar, but not as bad,” said Raonic, who sustained an adductor injury at the Australian Open. “I don’t think I let it get as bad. I have to do the right investigation. Just sort of see what it is and then I can judge it from there.”

Sunday’s final outcome notwithstanding, Raonic is happy with his progress.

“There are a lot of positives to take away. Right now it’s very disappointing, but at the end of the day, until two weeks ago I didn’t do any side-to-side movement and I didn’t play any points,” he said. “To be here playing in the final of one of the most important tournaments in our year is great progress. I look to sort of keep that going forward, try to be healthy and try to get better every day.”

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic captured a record fifth BNP Paribas Open crown in emphatic style on Sunday as he defeated Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 in the Indian Wells final.

Victory sees the Serb draw level with Rafael Nadal on 27 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns and extends the ‘Big Four’ dominance at this level, with Djokovic, Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray having won 49 of the past 53 Masters 1000 tournaments.

The 28-year-old Djokovic has a 46-6 tournament record at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, winning the title in 2008, 2011 and then completing the three-peat between 2014-16. He also reached the final in 2007, finishing runner-up to Nadal.

Since battling past young American talent Bjorn Fratangelo in three sets in his opening second-round match, Djokovic has gone from strength to strength, not dropping a set as he raced to his 62nd tour-level title in the desert.

Raonic had come into the final having lost serve only four times in the tournament, but Djokovic swiftly announced his intent, breaking the Canadian twice as he surged into a 4-0 lead. Raonic stemmed the flow, but could not find a way back into the set as Djokovic wrapped up the opener in 43 minutes, having won more than half the points (52 per cent) on his opponent’s serve.

Raonic left the court for treatment after the first set, but could do nothing to halt Djokovic’s momentum in the second set. Indeed, the Canadian was punished for not winning any of his 14 second serve points as Djokovic broke three times to surge to victory in 88 minutes, having lost only three points on serve in the second set.

Djokovic captured his third title of the season, having opened his season with victory in Doha (d. Nadal) before lifting his 11th Grand Slam trophy at the Australian Open (d. Murray).

The Serb earns $1,028,300 in prize money and receives 1000 Emirates ATP Rankings points.

The 25-year-old Raonic had made an impressive return to action after being sidelined with an adductor injury through February. The right-hander was contesting his third ATP World Tour Masters 1000 final after becoming the first player outside the Top 10 to reach the Indian Wells final since John Isner in 2012.

After runner-up showings in Montreal in 2013 and Paris in 2014, Raonic was bidding to become the first player born in the 1990s to win a Masters 1000 trophy.

Raonic has a 14-2 record on the season, highlighted by winning his eighth ATP World Tour title in Brisbane (d. Federer) and reaching his second Grand Slam semifinal at the Australian Open (l. to Murray). By making the final, Raonic earns $501,815 in prize money and receives 600 Emirates ATP Rankings points. 

Risk and reward are hidden all over the scoreboard in tennis, with the scoreline of 30-all containing a healthy dose of both.

Every game has 18 different point combinations, from 0-15 to 40-30 to Ad-In. An Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers study of the scoreline 30-all reveals there’s much more to this mid-game scoreline than meets the eye.

We analysed what happened when the Top 8 players – Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer – faced 30-all during the 2015 season and during the first two months of 2016.

To peel back the layers and understand the high-stakes consequences of 30-all, it’s important to understand three pivotal percentages. The first is the actual winning percentage for the server when the scoreline hits 30-all. The second is the server’s winning percentage at 40-30, and lastly, the server’s winning percentage at 30-40.

30-All Winning Percentage = 79 Per Cent

At love-all, the elite eight players have an 86 per cent chance of holding serve. Four points later at 30-30, that percentage drops slightly, to 79 per cent.

But that 79 per cent is just an average of the Top 8 players. Federer leads the group, holding 86 per cent of the time from 30-all. Nadal, though, holds only 71 percent of the time.

40-30 Winning Percentage = 93 Per Cent

If one of the Top 8 players wins the 30-all point while serving, their odds of winning that game shoot up to 93 per cent.

When Djokovic is in that position, he holds 97 per cent of the time, the highest percentage of the Top 8. Nishikori and Ferrer hold 91 per cent of the time, the lowest of the group.

These top of the tree competitors, the Top 8, all hold serve more than 90 per cent of the time when their games reach the dominant scorelines of 15-0, 30-0, 30-15, 40-0, 40-15 and 40-30.

30-40 Winning Percentage = 52 per cent

Losing the 30-all point basically creates a break-even scenario for the server. When that happens, the Top 8 win only 52 per cent of their service games. Tomas Berdych, 44 per cent, and Rafael Nadal, 45 per cent, were the only two players under 50 per cent, while Federer was again the clear leader at 58 per cent.

The Smart Strategy

To summarise, if a Top 8 player wins the 30-all point, he has a 93 per cent chance of holding. If he loses that crucial 30-all point, he has a 52 per cent chance of holding serve.

That substantial 41-percentage point swing dictates that, at 30-all, the server very much needs to make a first serve, keep control with a strong “Serve + 1” groundstroke, and look to force an error from his opponent. The player serving should not chase a lower-percentage winner or hope his opponent donates an unforced error.

Many different combinations exist, but a high-percentage first serve slicing out wide in the deuce court followed by a deep forehand to the open hole in the ad court could force the returner to hit a backhand on the run.

Continuing the forehand to backhand matchup, with an emphasis on depth and superior court position, would be an ideal fit for the high-risk stakes of 30-all.

Competitors at all levels of the game can copy and paste the patterns and percentages of the game’s elite players to successfully navigate the treacherous waters of 30-all.

The final tournament in a three-week run of ATP Challenger Tour events in China kicks off this week in Shenzhen, but No. 3 seed Daniel Gimeno-Traver and No. 4 seed Filip Krajinovic got to experience one of the most popular local sights before main draw play begins.

On Sunday, Gimeno-Traver and Krajinovic visited Wanshi Habitat, where the ancestors of Shenzhen citizens used to live. The two players learned about Hakka culture and what the lifestyle entailed, then delighted the local audience by hitting a few balls at the site. Both Gimeno-Traver and Krajinovic said they planned to come back and explore Wanshi Habitat again next year.

The top four seeds at this week’s Challenger in Shenzhen are all ranked inside the Top 100 of the Emirates ATP Rankings, with World No. 86 Taro Daniel earning billing as the top seed. Last week’s finalists in Guangzhou, Lukas Lacko and Nikoloz Basilashvili, will look to continue their strong form as the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds this week.