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Roger Federer vs Stan Wawrinka US Open 2015 SF Preview and Prediction

  • Posted: Sep 11, 2015

Roger Federer‘s dominance over the US Open has faded in recent years and his one-sided record against Stan Wawrinka has become more of a battle. Will Federer turn back the block in Friday’s semifinals and beat Wawrinka to return to the US Open final? Forget Swiss neutrality: Friday night in New York is all about Swiss brutality as Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka leave friendship at the entrance to the court and battle for a place in the US Open final. Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka will clash for the 20th time in the semi-finals of the US Open on Friday.

It’s remarkable, given the supremacy Federer had once established over the fourth and final Grand Slam of the year, that the five-time US Open champion hasn’t reached the US Open final since 2009, when he lost in five sets to Juan Martin del Potro. Denied by Novak Djokovic in the semifinals in 2010 and 2011, Federer made two relatively early exits by his standards in 2012 and 2013, and when he returned to the semifinals in 2014, he was defeated by an inspired Marin Cilic, who blasted him off the court in straight sets. In fact, you have to go back to 2011 to find the last time Federer made a Grand Slam final at any tournament outside of Wimbledon, and the 2010 Australian Open for the last time he made a hard-court Slam final. These facts are not insignificant.

There’s a kind of poetry in the fact that Federer faces Stan Wawrinka, whose career blossomed late after so many years in his compatriot’s shadow, in Friday’s semifinals. Wawrinka’s Grand Slam record compared to Federer’s is as lopsided as their head-to-head – 16-3 in Federer’s favour – but both have shifted dramatically in recent years. Don’t let this one deceive you. Roger Federer may have won 13 of their 14 earliest meetings, but late-blooming Stan Wawrinka was, for a long time, the guy with all the talent, without the consistency, and without belief and confidence. Federer also leads 11-0 on hard-courts.

Since winning his first major at the 2014 Australian Open, Wawrinka has won two of his five duels with Federer – and in the match that puts Roger 3-2 ahead, Stan had four match points. He also won their last encounter, a straight-sets heart-breaker that kicked the No. 1 Swiss out of the French Open – which the Swiss no. 2 would go on to win. Between 2009 and 2014, Federer went undefeated against Wawrinka, as he defeated his lower ranked compatriot eleven times in a row.

All three of Wawrinka’s victories against Federer have come on clay courts, often in slow, damp conditions. Federer on a quicker Arthur Ashe Stadium will be an entirely different proposition – especially given the way that the second seed has been playing. Federer came into the US Open on the back of a victory at the Cincinnati Masters and is the only player still alive in the draw not to have dropped a set (Wawrinka has lost just one, to Donald Young).

Both players have really been crushing all opposition so far at the US Open, with Wawrinka even imitating Federer’s new aggressive returning technique – SABR, or Sneak Attack Behind Return – in his last match against Kevin Anderson. Federer has been playing at a higher level, with Wawrinka more just getting through his matches before raising his level somewhat in his last two matches, but that could mean the fifth seed is peaking at the right time – and that Federer could be unprepared for his first serious opposition, something we’ve seen with him at Grand Slams recently where he cruises until it matters.

We know how Federer is going to play: He’s going to play the same super-attacking tennis which has got him to this point. And we know how Wawrinka will have to play; big, big on every shot, to try to dominate and take the initiative from the first ball. He did it superbly in the quarterfinals of the French Open, but it will be much more difficult for him in New York. The match-up looks far too close to be settled in straight sets but Federer is much more comfortable with the kind of tennis he’s going to need to play than Wawrinka is and, if the five-time US Open champion can manage his nerves, that might be what sees him into his first US Open final for six years.

Roger is possibly playing his best tennis since the 2012 Wimbledon triumph but Stan’s late career rise is definitely note-worthy winning 2 slams. Roger will hold off his compatriot in this epic. The big question for Stan is can he turn up? Roger is  not expected to miss his best chance to win Grand Slam No.18. One thing is for sure – we will have a Swiss man in the finals on Sunday

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Novak Djokovic vs Marin Cilic US Open 2015 SF Preview and Prediction

  • Posted: Sep 11, 2015

Marin Cilic‘s gallant defense of his US Open title looks set to end on Friday as he faces Novak Djokovic, against whom he has never won, in the third of Friday’s blockbuster US Open semifinals live from New York. Defending US Open champion Marin Cilic is 0-13 against his semifinal opponent, world no. 1 Novak Djokovic. Will the New York magic help Cilic get his first win? Not many picked Cilic to get this far in defending his title. Since capturing his first Grand Slam in stunning style 12 months ago on Arthur Ashe Stadium, defeating Roger Federer in the semifinals and Kei Nishikori in the final, the lanky Croatian has struggled with a shoulder injury that saw him miss the opening months of the 2015 season and it took him a while to find any form to speak of on his return.

With a run to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon – where he lost to Djokovic – and a semifinal showing in Washington, D.C., however, Cilic started showing signs of, if not his best, then some effective tennis and despite two five-set battles with Mikhail Kukushkin and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga respectively, he has defied expectations to return to the semifinals in New York. There’s no getting around the fact that Cilic’s gallant attempt at defending his title is likely to come to an end against Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, however.

There were a few questions surrounding Djokovic’s form and fitness coming into the US Open, where he won the title in 2011 and finished runner-up four times (2007, 2010, 2012 and 2013). Djokovic made the finals in both Montreal and Cincinnati, but lost to Andy Murray and Roger Federer respectively in those finals and had arm and stomach injuries to contend with as well – unsurprising after a stellar season which has seen him win the Australian Open and Wimbledon, finish runner-up at the French Open, win Masters Series titles in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Rome, compiling a win-loss record which currently stands at 61-5 for the year.

Djokovic has steadied the ship – not that it was ever rocking very badly – at the US Open, however, cruising through the first three rounds in straight sets and although he went on to drop sets to Roberto Bautista Agut and Feliciano Lopez in the round of 16 and quarterfinals respectively, he never looked in the remotest danger of losing either match. Indeed, his progress to the semifinals has been reminiscent of how he played at Wimbledon: Not flawlessly by any means, but well within himself and with plenty to spare for the climactic final stages.

Naturally, that doesn’t bode terribly well for Cilic. 0-13 against Djokovic, Cilic has only won five sets in those 13 matches, coming closest to victory in 2014 when he pushed Djokovic to five in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Djokovic’s last nine sets against Cilic, dating back to that Wimbledon meeting, have been won by the following scorelines: 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, 6-0, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Cilic, in other words, is not even getting close.

Try not to flinch. Novak may have a white-washing head-to-head record against the big-serving Croat, but the defending champion has pushed him closer in recent years. Since the beginning of 2014 Marin has taken Novak beyond straight sets in 3 of 5 encounters. However, if Marin were to win, he wouldn’t be the first player to turn a seriously lopsided head-to-head around on a big stage. If that wasn’t enough, Cilic also had that grueling quarterfinal duel with Tsonga in the heat of the day and also dropped one set to Jeremy Chardy and two to Kukushkin earlier in the event – hardly ideal preparation for a match against the fittest man in tennis.

That’s Cilic talking as good a game as he can be expected to under the circumstances, and he has the underdog’s advantage that nobody expects him to win. But against a player as defensively accomplished as the superb Djokovic, Cilic – even at his best – doesn’t really have the solidity off the ground that allows him to build the kind of relentlessly dominant points from the baseline that Juan Martin del Potro, for example, at his best could muster; and he doesn’t have the variety or clinical execution in attack that serves Roger Federer so well. Unless Djokovic has a serious letdown, and that is an eventuality which occurs more and more rarely these days, it’s difficult to see any other outcome than the world no. 1 progressing to his fourth Grand Slam final of the season.

 

The World No.1 is perhaps not in the best of form at Flushing Meadows this year; Cilic will certainly look to take advantage of that. Expect this to be a titanic tussle and Novak to come through. But Cilic will realize that this is his best chance to get on the board against Nole.

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Simona Halep vs Flavia Pennetta – US Open 2015 SF Preview and Prediction

Simona Halep vs Flavia Pennetta – US Open 2015 SF Preview and Prediction

  • Posted: Sep 10, 2015

halep

Post hypnotizing three-set quarterfinal combats, second seed Simona Halep confronts seasoned Italian Flavia Pennetta with a place in the final of the 2015 US Open on the line. With Serena Williams in all likelihood to await in the final, Simona Halep takes on Flavia Pennetta in the semifinals of the 2015 US Open. Can Halep subvert her losing record or is the veteran Italian set for a first Grand Slam final?

 

Despite Flavia Pennetta’s emblematic record at the US Open, reaching the quarterfinals four times and the semifinals once since 2008, nobody would have picked the 26th seed to reach the semifinals in New York. Pennetta had done little in the season so far, with the exception of quarterfinal finishes at Indian Wells (where she was the defending champion), Dubai and Marrakech and reaching the fourth round at the French Open, and went 2-3 through the build-up to the US Open, with her last activity a three-set loss to Magdalena Rybarikova in New Haven (her 15th defeat for an offset of just 17 wins in 2015).

But the Italian has shone once more in New York, beating Jarmila Gajdosova, Monica Niculescu, Caroline Wozniacki’s conqueror Petra Cetkovska, former champion and 22nd seed Samantha Stosur and finally fifth seed Petra Kvitova 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 to reach her second semifinal at the US Open. While Pennetta’s win over Kvitova lacked the flawlessness of her performance against Stosur, it was a triumph of determination and defense, dragging the fifth seed – who traditionally struggles in conditions like this and was recently diagnosed with mononucleosis – into a third set and running away with the match as Kvitova rapidly faded physically.

Pennetta could not be facing a more different challenge in the semifinals against Halep. Compact where Kvitova is lanky, consistent off the ground where Kvitova is error-prone and nimble where Kvitova is … not, Halep’s game is actually a lot closer to Pennetta’s own in terms of a skillful blend of counterpunching, defense and pace-absorption with aggression.

The second seed looked like a different player from the one that took on Sabine Lisicki in the fourth round. Cramping in legs and back, limping between points and shedding unforced errors at what was, for Halep, an alarming rate, the Romanian struggled through that match against Lisicki but was sublime against Azarenka.

Pennetta actually leads the head-to-head with Halep 3-1, beating Halep on clay in 2010 and then twice in 2013, the transitional year in which Halep picked up six titles but had yet to really challenge at the biggest events: Via retirement on clay in Bastad, and in the fourth round of the US Open itself, 6-2, 7-6(3). Since Halep became a top-10 player, they have met just once, in Miami this spring when Halep – fresh from capturing the Indian Wells title which Pennetta had won the year before – won 6-3, 7-5.

With both players so good at defending, the match does look likely to become something of a marathon (within points, if not necessarily in terms of duration) and that could disadvantage Halep. The second seed has already played in more Grand Slam semifinals than Pennetta and also has the experience of having won one once, and she also played her best tennis of the tournament in the last round, suggesting she is peaking at the right time. The better aggressive player, Halep needs to do whatever she can to shorten points wherever possible without overpressing. It’s a fine line, but if anyone can walk it, it’s Simona Halep.

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Roger Federer vs Richard Gasquet US Open 2015 QF Preview and Prediction

Roger Federer vs Richard Gasquet US Open 2015 QF Preview and Prediction

  • Posted: Sep 08, 2015

Roger Federer

Roger Federer continues the search for No.18 when he takes on Richard Gasquet in Wednesday night’s quarter-final, the 46th Grand Slam QF of his illustrious career. An impressive display against John Isner saw the current No.2 win in straight sets in front of the Arthur Ashe night crowd. Federer v Gasquet Head to Head stands at 14-2.

Federer had come into the tournament with a lengthy run of consecutive holds but saw that come to an end in round three against Philipp Kohlschreiber when the German broke twice in a straight sets loss. However, he would not be broken by Isner in five attempts the next round – although Isner’s returning level is probably not going to help give much away when analysing how well Federer is serving.

Isner was his usually stern self on serve in that match, desperately clinging on to his own record of consecutive holds that spanned back to last year’s tournament. It seemed on the cards that Isner might once more exit in a match he wasn’t broken in but Federer finally broke through in the last game of a 7-6 7-6 7-5 victory. Even more impressively, the first set 7-0 tiebreak was the first such Isner had lost in his career.

Gasquet’s failure to win fourth round matches at grand slams had become almost legendary but he has had a change of fortunes recently, winning three of his last four to improve that record to 4-16. Last night’s victory over Tomas Berdych was his highest ranking win of the four and one that came as somewhat of a surprise after the Czech had won their last three meetings.

With a 2-14 career record against Federer, one of which was their very first meeting, it doesn’t look too promising for Gasquet who last won in 2011 and failed to win a set in each of their last six matches. Federer will be buoyed by the absence of Andy Murray from the quarter final stage and should look to take advantage to make his first US Open final since 2009.

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Novak Djokovic vs Feliciano Lopez US Open 2015 QF Preview and Prediction

Novak Djokovic vs Feliciano Lopez US Open 2015 QF Preview and Prediction

  • Posted: Sep 08, 2015

Novak Djokovic

After being surprisingly pushed to four sets in the last round by Roberto Bautista Agut, Novak Djokovic will be hoping for a stress free outing in the quarter-finals when he takes on Feliciano Lopez. 

Looking for his third slam of the year and his first US Open title since 2011, Djokovic had a straight forward opening three rounds winning all three matches without dropping a set. He struggled at times during his win over Bautista Agut, especially in the second set when the Spaniard played some inspired tennis to win the set from a break down and outplayed Djokovic from the back of the court during his hot streak.

Not so strong from the baseline, Lopez and his serve and volley game offers a completely different test for Djokovic who has not played someone you would consider an above average server so far in his run. After a tough five setter against Mardy Fish in round two, Lopez picked up two impressive scalps to find his way to the quarter finals. Milos Raonic was sent packing in straight sets and Fabio Fognini suffered the same fate as the Italian could not back up his stunning victory over Rafael Nadal.

Lopez has struggled with Djokovic in the past, winning just one set in five matches – the most recent of which was in 2012. Given Lopez’s failure to trouble a far inferior version of Djokovic, it seems unlikely that he will have much luck here.

Prediction – Djokovic to win in straight sets.

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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Marin Cilic US Open 2015 QF Preview and Prediction

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Marin Cilic US Open 2015 QF Preview and Prediction

  • Posted: Sep 08, 2015

TSONGA

After his 2014 US Open title run was largely written off as a fluke, Marin Cilic has been looking to silence the doubters and is half way to defending his title. However, the matches will get much tougher from here on as he takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga next, with Novak Djokovic likely awaiting in the semi-finals for the winner.

Cilic defeated Kei Nishikori in last year’s final and a quarter-final rematch was largely expected after the pair were drawn in the same quarter. However, Nishikori’s round one loss opened up the draw for someone to make a run and it was Jo Wilfried Tsonga that took advantage. The Frenchman has not been broken all tournament or lost a set on his way to the quarter-finals thanks to some impressive serving while he has lost 5 or more games in a set just once of the 12 possible times.

Cilic’s journey to the quarter-finals hasn’t been as smooth, most notably being taken to five sets by Mikhail Kukushkin who had previously defeated Dimitrov in the tournament. Aside from a mid second set blip, Cilic was solid in a four set victory over Jeremy Chardy in the previous round. The win secured Cilic’s second grand slam quarter-final running after he did the same at Wimbledon.

With Tsonga in such imperious serving form, he has to be considered the early favourite to win the match. The dominant form that saw Cilic storm to the title last year is not to be seen while Tsonga is a step up from Chardy. Cilic has taken the last three matches that these two have played, two of which were on hard courts, to lead the head to head 4-3.

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Rafael Nadal’s struggles continue as he loses against Fognini at US Open

Rafael Nadal’s struggles continue as he loses against Fognini at US Open

  • Posted: Sep 06, 2015

Nadal

It’s been a year of lows for Rafael Nadal, who has been refreshingly open about the confidence issues that have plagued his season. However for all the shock defeats, it’s hard to imagine that any will have left as much of a mental scar as the stunning loss to Italy’s Fabio Fognini.

From a seemingly unassailable 6-3, 6-4, 3-1* position, Nadal slumped to an incredible 5-set defeat (d. 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 4-6) in an epic match lasting just under 4 hours. Spanning his entire professional career, this is the first time Rafa has been defeated after holding a 2 sets to love lead (previously boasting a perfect record of 151-0 across Grand Slam and Davis Cup matches).

Certainly there would have been some trepidation from the Spaniard coming into this match, given the pain Fognini had already dished out to him this season. The Italian achieved the extremely rare feat of back to back clay court victories over Nadal, beating him in Rio and Barcelona (d. 1-6, 6-2, 7-5 & 6-4, 7-6(6)). Since then Nadal achieved some semblance of revenge with a closely fought and somewhat heated win in the final of Hamburg, representing just his third title of the season.

Despite these matches pointing a potential banana skin, the first hour and half’s play on Arthur Ashe suggested otherwise as the 14-time grand slam winner cruised to two sets to love and a break in the third. Admittedly it was consistency over the spectacular, still at times producing some strange and wayward errors particularly off the forehand wing. However, his flamboyant opponent was coughing up more than enough errors to make this look like a comfortable night’s work.

That was until the sixth game of the third set where the match took a huge u-turn. Nadal threw in a nervous, error strewn game as Fognini broke to love. Perhaps sensing some of the much publicised mental frailty of his opponent, the Italian became inspired producing a sustained period of some of the best shot-making you could ever wish to see. Floods of winners came off both sides as Fognini adopted a much more aggressive approach, seemingly dictating every point. An increasing stressed Nadal seemed to have no answers as the Arthur Ashe crowd roared in delight as the underdog took the match into a decider.

The fifth set was an epic in itself with Fognini three times up a break, only to be pegged back by an increasing dogged Nadal who was relying on all his battling qualities to stay alive. Aided by a few trademark fist pumps, the crowd support now shifted inevitably towards the two-time former champion, as for the first time the Italian seemed to become very conscious of the finishing line. To his credit though, he produced a scintillating game at 4-4 with four blazing winners; to give him what proved to be the pivotal break.

He finally held out to 30 in the tenth game to secure what is the biggest win of his career and to become the first Italian man in a decade to reach the 4th round of the U.S Open (Sanguinetti, 2005). As for Rafa, this defeat leaves plenty to contemplate and ensures it will be his first slamless year since 2004, his best result being a quarter final at Roland Garros. Although many will be quick to criticise, the plaudits really should go to Fognini, who is perhaps finally finding the mental fortitude to go with his undoubted talent.

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How to combat that phase of susceptibility – Serena Williams knows it well

How to combat that phase of susceptibility – Serena Williams knows it well

  • Posted: Sep 03, 2015

Serena Williams

There is no tennis player who doesn’t go through the moment of vulnerability – that make or break phase. That phase of susceptibility which just doesn’t let you get into the groove, but still you need to find a way out.

In this context, there are two facets that clearly define what Serena Williams is all about.

First, the twinge, the grimace is all over her when she is down. We have seen it time and again, during her fabulous journey of 21 Grand Slams victories till date. Second, how she catapults herself and turns around that seemingly uncontrollable situation into a win. Its sheer delight to watch her script this transition. One such act was witnessed today as she got past Kiki Bertens 7-6 (7-5), 6-3 in the second round.

At a time when all eyes are on Williams to win this edition of the US Open and catch up with Steffi Graf for 22 Grand Slam titles, some of the routine stuff is being underestimated. Every single match takes a lot, and by no means a player’s potential can be discounted even as Williams is the hot favourite. The strapping Dutch woman exemplified the same. Though she failed to serve the set out at 5-4, and then let 4-0 lead in the first tie-break drift away, Bertens did trouble the top-ranked player.

As one would expect, Williams exhibited immense grit when it was needed. As much as she breaks the flow with relentless hitting, the fact her body language, her expressions become more evasive probably impacts Williams’ opponents, too. They clearly know Williams is not going to give up. A case in point, after hitting out with precision, Bertens came up with a feeble backhand at 5-5 in the tie-break. And then a fortuitous net-cord paved way for an error from the Dutch player, who eventually threw her racquet in pain.

By no means it’s easy to challenge Williams when she gains lead. Williams did close out with ease. Bertens probably played the match of her life, and would learn a great deal.

As for the champion, the weight of expectations is increasing. She knows the spotlight is on her, more than ever. And she seems to be ready for it, with her poise standing out. Next up its going to be Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the third round.

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Andy Murray vs Nick Kyrgios US Open 2015 Preview and Analysis

Andy Murray vs Nick Kyrgios US Open 2015 Preview and Analysis

  • Posted: Sep 01, 2015

Andy Murray

 

On one side of the net: Murray, the World no. 3, who has played some of the best tennis of his career throughout a stunningly consistent season but has failed to win a Grand Slam, facing either his last chance of the season at the US Open or the dreary chance of his earliest exit at a Slam since losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the first round of the Australian Open back in 2008.

On the other: Kyrgios, unseeded, desperate to get the focus back on his tennis after an on-court taunt aimed at Stan Wawrinka in Montreal went viral and left his behavior under a microscope from the media and the sport’s governing bodies, with a one-month suspension hanging over his head if he fails to clean up his act at ATP World Tour-sanctioned events (i.e. not Grand Slams).

Murray has won every match he has played against Kyrgios in straight sets (only 2 sets have been 6-4 or better) including victories on hard courts at last year’s Canada Masters and the Australian Open back in January. But Murray knows that, like the Tsonga he lost to in 2008, Kyrgios has the raw power and touch to blow away any opponent if he gets hot and, having played the Australian twice in Grand Slams (most recently in the third round of the French Open, he knows that Kyrgios relishes the big stage.

It would definitely be a mistake to underestimate Kyrgios, or to expect him to retreat into his shell after what happened in Montreal: The 20-year-old, who has wins over Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on his resume already, may say he’s learned his lesson but also says he’s ‘not embarrassed’ by the incident or the fall-out from it. We probably shouldn’t anticipate a chastened, more low-key Kyrgios to take the court on Tuesday. Indeed, he can be expected to relish the big stage and the chance to pull off a win against a top opponent – and perhaps even the opportunity to play the villain for the Arthur Ashe crowds.

In other words, it’s definitely going to be Kyrgios’s tennis, not his behavior, which concerns Murray on Tuesday. Murray’s impeccable defense and variety of the ground have always frustrated Kyrgios into impatient errors in the past, but there’s always a danger that that balance can slide into too much passivity from Murray. The third seed also has to worry about trying to win as quickly as possible in order to conserve energy, crucial with so many miles on his legs at this point of the season and with his tricky draw. It’s impossible to tell what you are going to get from Kyrgios, but on the big stage, against a top opponent, feeling like he has nothing to lose, it’s a perfect scenario for him to swing freely and push Murray harder than he ever has before. Could we be in for a huge shock on just the second day of the US Open?

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