Insider Draw Analysis: Rome
The draw for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia is out and it’s highlighted by a loaded top half of the draw, led by Serena Williams, and what should be an unpredictable bottom half of the draw, led by No.2 Angelique Kerber.
Here are the storylines we’re watching as the last major tune up to the French Open is set to begin.
1. Serena makes her return.
The clay season officially begins for Serena Williams this week, as the American is in Rome and has already been spotted practicing. The World No.1 has not played since losing in the round of 16 at the Miami Open and has just three tournaments under her belt this season. She’s looking to break her title drought, which goes all the way back to the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati last summer.
Serena has a bye into the second round and will open against one of two Anna’s: Anna-Lena Friedsam or Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. Schmiedlova has lost her last 10 tour matches. It’s a draw that should give Serena a few good matches to play herself into form but the business end of the tournament could be tough. Victoria Azarenka, Simona Halep, and Svetlana Kuznetsova are all looming in her half of the draw. To win the title Serena could have to go through Ana Ivanovic, Halep or Kuznetsova in the quarterfinal, and Azarenka (if she’s healthy) in the semifinal.
Rome also offers an opportunity for Serena to pick up points. With her limited play since the US Open, her point lead has began to shrink. Last year she withdrew from the tournament after her opening round match, meaning any progress past that stage this year will help her repad her lead.
2. Azarenka health watch.
Azarenka takes her 26-1 record into Rome, but she arrives under a cloud of questions. Azarenka was forced to withdraw from the Mutua Madrid Open last week due to a back injury, which she says she picked up in her opening match. It’s always difficult to gauge how serious Azarenka’s injuries may be given her cautious nature, so it was good to see her still in the tournament when the draw was released on Friday.
The book on Azarenka is that she’s less of a threat on clay. While she’s committed to proving people wrong this year, a deep run in Rome would certainly put her on the short list of favorites at the French Open, where she has never made it past the semifinals.
Azarenka was a finalist in 2013 and played well last year before losing to eventual champion Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals. She opens against either Magarita Gasparyan or Madrid quarterfinalist Irina-Camelia Begu, and could play either Daria Kasatkina or Karolina Pliskova in the third round. If healthy, this is a good draw for Azarenka until the semifinals, where she could face off against Serena for the second time this year.
3. Vinci returns home.
Roberta Vinci makes no qualms about it: she does not play well in Rome. The 33-year-old Palermo native has won just six matches in the last 11 years in Rome. The attention and the expectation has been debilitating in the past but she hopes this year is different.
This year the US Open finalist returns to the Foro Italico to much fanfare. It could be her final appearance at the tournament if she holds firm to her previously announced plan to hang up her racquet at the end of the year. She will open her tournament against either Johanna Konta or a qualifier. Vinci told WTA Insider this week that she’s asked tournament organizers to schedule her first match on the famed Court Pietrangeli. The sight of that court overflowing with her vocal Italian fans should be something to see.
Another thing to keep an eye for: If Vinci can get some wins in Rome, she could play Serena in the semifinals in what would be a rematch of their US Open semifinal.
4. Muguruza and Suárez Navarro lead the Spanish Quarter.
Both women were disappointed to bow out of Madrid early, none more so than Carla Suárez Navarro, who was playing well but caught an upper respiratory illness during the week that left her unable to battle through a three-set match against Samantha Stosur. As for Muguruza, she lost in the third round to Begu, and it seemed the pressure of being Spain’s No.1 followed her everywhere she went in Madrid.
Which means Rome should be a refreshing change of pace for both women, who should be factors at the French Open. Suárez Navarro was a finalist here a year ago and so long as she’s put her illness behind her, she should be one to watch this week. She could face Timea Bacsinszky in the third round and Muguruza in the quarterfinals. Muguruza opens against either Danka Kovinic or Ekaterina Makarova.
5. Kvitova’s tough draw.
She couldn’t defend her title in Madrid but Kvitova has been playing good ball on clay. She made the quarterfinals in Stuttgart, losing to eventual champion Angelique Kerber, and earned two good wins in Madrid before losing to Daria Gavrilova. She’s never made it past the quarterfinals in Rome.
Her draw doesn’t inspire much confidence but if she can get through the first few rounds Kvitova could settle down. Her path to the semifinal starts with either Andrea Petkovic or Madison Keys, then possibly Venus Williams, with Angelique Kerber potentially in the quarterfinal.
@andreapetkovic yassssss ? #ihavenoideawhatimdoing pic.twitter.com/ZGPnwdN9Ra
— Madison Keys (@Madison_Keys) April 4, 2016
6. Andrea Petkovic and Madison Keys earn the first round popcorn.
Main draw play begins on Sunday. Here are the first round matches to watch:
– Andrea Petkovic vs. Madison Keys
– Daria Kasatkina vs. Karolina Pliskova
– Venus Williams vs. CoCo Vandeweghe
– Jelena Jankovic vs. Eugenie Bouchard
– Daria Gavrilova vs. Sabine Lisicki
– Kristina Mladenovic vs. Jelena Ostapenko
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.
