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Insider Notebook: Upset Analysis

Insider Notebook: Upset Analysis

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

A deeper look at the Dubai upsets: After three days of play at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Champions, no seeds remain in the tournament. This is the first time the seeds went winless at a WTA event and just the fourth time no seeds advanced to the quarterfinals (2014 Bastad, 2012 Bogota, 2009 Hobart).

Needless to say, this week’s results in Dubai are a statistical anomaly, especially for a Premier tournament. The withdrawals of World No.1 Serena Williams, Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber, and Australian Open semifinalist Agnieszka Radwanska — the top three women on the Road to Singapore leaderboard — reshuffled the top seeds in Dubai and injected some level of unpredictability in a tournament where conditions are already tricky. The balls tend to fly and the courts have been recently resurfaced. Control is at a premium.

But a closer look at the top seeds’ opening round match-ups does provide some context for this unprecedented exodus. For No.5 seed Belinda Bencic and No.7 seed Roberta Vinci, who played the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy final on Sunday, both women arrived less than 24 hours before their opening round matches. Bencic lost to Jelena Jankovic, no slouch of a player herself, while Vinci looked understandably sluggish in a 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 loss to qualifier Yaroslava Shvedova.

As for the remaining six seeds:

Simona Halep

Ana Ivanovic d. No.1 Simona Halep 7-6(2), 6-2: It’s been a sputtering start to the season for Halep, who dropped to 3-3 this season. Halep took a late wildcard into Dubai after deciding to postpone nasal surgery. Her mantra from the start of the season has been simple and repetitive: Matches, matches, matches. Halep has yet to play herself into form and the rustiness, particularly on the big points, shows.

“I’m disappointed that I lost but it’s okay,” Halep said. “I feel good. Physically I’m okay. I have no pain anywhere. It’s good, and the most important thing is that I’m healthy.”

As for Ivanovic, she’s rebounded well from a disappointing 2015 season. After going 0-2 to start the year her level has improved week after week. She was dominated Madison Keys for most of their third round match at the Australian Open, but get nervous in the end, losing 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. She made the semifinals last week in St. Petersburg, only to lose to the slicing-and-dicing wiles of Vinci.

But Ivanovic carried that form into Dubai this week. She blasted No.35 Daria Gavrilova off the court in the first round, losing just one game. And her win over Halep on Wednesday was her first top 5 win since the 2014 WTA Finals, when she beat…Simona Halep.

Garbine Muguruza

Elina Svitolina d. No.2 Garbiñe Muguruza 7-6(3), 6-3: Svitolina has been playing at a good level. It just hasn’t been obvious after a surprising second round loss to Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open. Could her decision to hire Justine Henin as a coaching consultant inject a sense of urgency in the Ukrainian’s game? Her improvement over the years has been steady but the Henin hiring may just signal a new level of hunger and ambition.

Much like Halep, Muguruza’s 2016 start has struggled to gain traction. A foot injury left her undercooked in Melbourne, where she lost in the third round to Barbora Strycova. Against Svitolina she hit 68 unforced errors in two sets.

“I’m not really finding my game, so I think I have to rest a little bit and concentrate again and work hard and eventually come back to the tournament to play again,” Muguruza said after the loss. “I think I’m not really ready to compete. I need to work a little bit more. My shots, my fitness. So we’ll see.”

She told reporters she’s still dealing with her foot injury and her participation in next week’s Qatar Total Open is up in the air. “If I’m not 100%, I don’t think it’s necessary,” she said. “So we’ll see these couple of days.”

– Caroline Garcia d. No.3 Carla Suárez Navarro 4-6. 6-4, 6-3: The young Frenchwoman has an uncanny ability to use a strong Fed Cup weekend as a springboard to confident play on tour. She was the hero in France’s win over Italy two weeks ago, scoring singles wins over Sara Errani and Camila Giorgi.

– Madison Brengle d. No.4 Petra Kvitova 0-6, 7-6(1), 6-3: At I highlighted in my last Notebook, Kvitova is at a crossroads right now. She drops to 1-5 this season, with that sole win coming against No. 143 Luksika Kumkhum in the first round of the Australian Open, and announced a surprising split with long-time coach David Kotyza. The high-flying conditions in Dubai have not been easy for the Czech. Setting aside a title run in 2013, she has not made it past the second round and lost in the opening round at four of five appearances.

Coco Vandeweghe

CoCo Vandeweghe d. No.6 Karolina Pliskova 7-6(5), 6-1: The two split their two prior meetings, so it’s not like this result was out of the blue for Vandeweghe. But it’s been difficult to get a read on Pliskova’s form in 2016. She had a fantastic Fed Cup run two weeks ago, scoring a three-set win over Halep. In Sydney she earned two good wins over Ivanovic and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. But she has yet to win more than two matches at a tour event.

– Julia Goerges d. No.8 Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-0, 6-1: The erratic nature of her game persists — we’re talking about Goerges here — but the German has been very good this season. Kuznetsova had little chance against her in the first round, with Goerges blasting 28 winners and 15 unforced errors.

Projected Rankings: The big news on Monday: Roberta Vinci will finally make her Top 10 debut. Despite losing in the first round she’ll move up three spots after Suarez Navarro, Lucie Safarova, and Venus Williams drop.

Next week’s projected rankings:

1. Serena
2. Kerber
3. Radwanska (+1)
4. Halep (-1)
5. Muguruza
6. Sharapova
7. Bencic (+2, career-high)
8. Kvitova
9. Pennetta (-2)
10. Vinci (+3, Top 10 debut)
11. Suarez Navarro
12. Safarova (-2)
13. Venus (-1)
14. Azarenka (or Ivanovic wins the title)
15. Bacsinszky (or Azarenka if Ivanovic wins the title)

All photos courtesy of Getty Images.

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Kvitova Cruises Against Makarova

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

NEW HAVEN, CT, USA – No.6 seed Petra Kvitova is back into the Connecticut Open semifinals for the fifth year in a row after defeating Ekaterina Makarova 6-3, 6-1 in exactly one hour.

Watch live action from New Haven this week on WTA Live powered by TennisTV!

Kvitova and Makarova are quickly building up a fierce rivalry in 2016, with this match being their fourth encounter in 2016 alone.

Decidedly quicker than the last several matches they’ve played, which both went almost two hours long. In fact, it went a little more like the last time they played in New Haven, back in 2014, when Kvitova stomped past Makarova in straight sets in just 49 minutes.

“Maybe the court helped me,” Kvitova said. “Maybe, I don’t know, I was ready to battle again. Just knew that I had to be really focusing on each point.

“I think I played better here. I served better, for sure. I just think it was really, you know, helpful for me today. Couple of the matches which we played before today was always a little bit tricky. I think in each of them that I had chances to win it, but I didn’t really take it. Today I just played good match again.”

Kvitova and Makarova stayed toe to toe during the tightly drawn first set, with the lone break at 4-2 going the way of the Czech. She held on to the slight lead to take the opening set, then found an extra gear in the second, breaking three times and reeling off six games in a row to close out the match in exactly an hour.

With the win Kvitova is back in the semifinals of the Connecticut Open for the fifth consecutive time.

Despite the fact that New Haven has become her happiest of hunting grounds outside of her favored Wimbledon – winning three titles and reaching four finals in her last four appearances – Kvitova still can’t say what it is about this tournament that she loves so much. She just likes it here.

“I don’t know. I always looking forward to be here,” Kvitova mused in press. “I’m here. I just feel so relaxed. We always have our kind of restaurants and breakfast shop where we are going every morning, having just easy time. It’s easy to get here, like 10 minutes, not that much.

“I don’t know. I just feel everything, it’s so easy. Even the court. Of course with a lot of success that I have here, it’s better to play.”

Kvitova is set to face Agnieszka Radwanska for a spot in the final.

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News | WTA Tennis English

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

TALLINN, Estonoia – A straightforward 6-2 6-3 win for the British No.1, Johanna Konta, over Jelena Ostapenko gave Great Britain an unassailable 2-0 lead over Latvia in the 2017 Fed Cup.

It was comfortable for the 25-year-old, with just one minor setback when Ostapenko, 19, broke back after Konta had taken two games against serve in the second set. But the Brit, who won a remarkable 100 per cent of points from her second serve in the match, recovered to close out.

Earlier, Heather Watson comfortably beat Diana Marcinkevica, 6-3 6-0, to put Great Britain 1-0 up.

“We knew coming in today that Latvia was going to be a strong team,” said Konta. “It’s never easy, whichever match you’re playing in. I’ve always said that in the Fed Cup players raise their level and play without inhibition so it can be tricky out there. I know the scoreline doesn’t suggest it was as difficult as I felt, for sure. Because it was hard.

“She is one of the young ones on the tour but she has a big game. She can go through phases in matches where you really don’t have much of a say. I knew going into it that I needed to stay patient and stay as solid as I possibly could, and also when the opportunities presented themselves to really go for them.”

The world No.10 also spoke about the enjoyment she derives from playing for her country. “Last year, the Olympics was one of the best experiences of my life. So whenever I get an opportunity to represent Great Britain in a team environment I look to take it.”

Watson, ranked 72nd in the world, took just 61 minutes to see off the world No.307, Marcinkevica, continuing the fine form that has seen her lose just five games across her two Fed Cup 2017 matches. Yesterday, she cruised to a 6-1 6-1 win over Ines Murta as Anne Keothavong’s team beat Portugal 3-0.

“I’m happy with the win today,” said the British No.2. “I thought I played better than yesterday; I think I had a tougher opponent today as well. I moved better, I struck the ball cleaner. All round I thought I played well, I played positive and aggressive.”

Watson is enjoying the Fed Cup experience, adding: “Last night, we played ‘Heads up’, which is one of my favorite games. It’s a lot of fun, we’re playing a lot of games. There’s a lot of banter flying about, so I’m enjoying it.”

Great Britain will face Turkey on Friday as they bid to top their group and qualify for Saturday’s promotion play-offs.

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Schiavone, Rogers Reach Rio Final

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil – Former World No.4 and 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone reached her first WTA final since 2013 with a 6-3, 6-3 win over Petra Martic.

Playing in her first WTA semifinal in nearly 18 months (2014, Hong Kong), Schiavone put down four aces and won 84% of points behind her first serve against Martic, herself a former World No.42 who one made the second week of Roland Garros back in 2012.

It had been a difficult start to 2016 for Schiavone, who missed out on a 62nd consecutive Grand Slam main draw appearance when she fell in the second round of qualifying at the Australian Open.

“When I chose Rio, I chose it mainly because it was clay,” Schiavone said in her post-match press conference. “I remembered the conditions here being very difficult, so I trained as much as is possible for me to prepare myself on clay to be ready for the heat and the effort.

“Obviously when you come here, you try to prepare as much as you can, but you don’t think ‘I’m going there to win it,’ no, no. It’s a wonderful surprise; it’s been a long time since I’ve had this big a result, so I’m taking it as it comes.”

Schiavone next plays resurgent American Shelby Rogers. Playing her first WTA main draw since the Coupe Banque Nationale last fall, Rogers ended the excellent adventure of Sorana Cirstea, a former World No.21 who had amassed a 12-1 record heading into the semifinal by reaching back-to-back finals at two Challenger tournaments in Brazil.

“It feels amazing. I’ve had a really great week, played some good matches,” Rogers said in her post-match press conference. “I got a little momentum at the beginning, but this year has been good so far; I’ve already played a lot of matches, so that’s been a big help.

“Winning this many matches in a row and playing very well is definitely a confidence-builder, but I’ve also had to fight through some tough moments in those matches. Those are where I really get confidence from, so hopefully I can carry that into tomorrow and through the rest of the year.”

Rogers won, 6-4, 6-4, and will be playing Schiavone for the first time in what will be her second career WTA final (Schiavone’s 18th).

“Rogers is a player I don’t know very well,” Schiavone said. “But it’s going to be interesting. A final is really a 50-50 chance.”

In doubles, Veronica Cepede Royg and María Irigoyen captured the doubles final with a 6-1, 7-6(5) win over Tara Moore and Conny Perrin. For Paraguay’s Cepede Royg, the Rio Open is her first WTA title of any king, while Irigoyen won her only previous WTA title back in 2014, playing doubles in Rio with Irina-Camelia Begu.

“I want to thank my partner for the amazing week we had here in Rio,” Cepede Royg said after the match. “I’m really happy for winning my first WTA title in Rio.:

“This is such an enchanting place and the city is beautiful,” Irigoyen added. “I love coming here, people are really receptive and it was a special week.”

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Bouchard Survives, Leads Youth In Doha

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

DOHA, Qatar – Former World No.5 Eugenie Bouchard recovered from a 2-5 final set deficit and later from match point down to dispatch resurgent Latvian Anastasija Sevastova, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(4) in the first round of the Qatar Total Open.

“I wanted to make it exciting for everyone,” Bouchard joked during her on-court interview when asked about the dramatic win that took nearly two-and-half hours.

The Canadian was playing her first tournament since the Australian Open – where she lost to eventual semifinalist Agnieszka Radwanska in the second round – and was very nearly out of it against Sevastova, a former World No.36 who returned to tennis at the start of 2015 following a brief retirement.

“It was all kind of a blur, really. I was just in the moment, and just kept trying to fight.

“It’s been a while since I played a match and I didn’t want to leave Doha that soon, so I’m glad to stay her another couple of days.”

Bouchard has seen her ranking fall to No.61 due to a combination of injuries and inconsistencies, but the 2014 Wimbledon runner-up had a bright start to 2016 when she reached the final of the Hobart International, and showed off some of her signature aggression against Sevastova, hitting 40 winners to 49 unforced errors. Sevastova hit fewer errors at 36, but 11 fewer winners.

“I’m just so grateful to be back on tour after a rough end of last season. I’m just so happy to be doing what I love, to be playing in front of you guys, to enjoy this life.

“I love it; I love my job, so that’s the main thing and I just want to keep getting better.”

Bouchard next plays the winner of Denisa Allertova and No.15 seed Elina Svitolina, who recently hired former No.1 Justine Henin as a coaching consultant and made the semis at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships just last week. The Canadian could face reigning Australian Open champion and top seed Angelique Kerber should both advance to the third round.

Earlier in the day, the WTA’s horde of young Russians continued to impress in their first round matches; Daria Kasatkina survived a second set hiccup to defeat qualifier Qiang Wang – who took out ASB Classic champion Sloane Stephens in Melbourne – 6-1, 2-6, 6-3.

Kasatkina’s compatriot Margarita Gasparyan was even more emphatic against No.10 seed Karolina Pliskova, dropping just two games in a 6-1, 6-1 win that took just under 50 minutes.

“I’m so happy that I won today,” she said during her on-court interview, this her first win over a Top 15 player.

“I’ve played Serena twice in Wimbledon and in Australia; it was amazing. I feel comfortable now playing in the big moments. It’s a nice atmosphere and I’m enjoying getting to play here.”

Fellow youngsters Jelena Ostapenko and Donna Vekic were also straight set winners in Doha, while veteran Kateryna Bondarenko – another comeback kid who returned to tennis 18 months ago after becoming a mother – defeated Annika Beck in straight sets, as well.

In the last match of the day, a pair of former Top 10 players in Ekaterina Makarova and Andrea Petkovic faced off in the first round; the German emerged victorious in just over an hour, 6-3, 6-2.

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