Insider Debates: Who Will Win Wimbledon
Courtney Nguyen, Point: The Serena Williams who walks out on Centre Court on Saturday for the Wimbledon final will be a different Serena from the one who strode out on Rod Laver Arena six months ago.
The Australian Open was Serena’s first tournament back since taking a tough loss to Roberta Vinci at the US Open, a loss that ended her high-profile quest for the Calendar Grand Slam. Serena took the rest of the season off and she returned in Melbourne appearing to be firing on all cylinders.
But the key word was “appeared.” It was impossible to shake the feeling when watching and talking to her throughout those two weeks that she was still fighting off the disappointment from New York. She faced an avalanche of questions about how she dealt with the loss, how much it hurt, is she ready now to win No.22. She answered. It wasn’t always convincing.
On court she was great. She advanced to the final without the loss of a set, beating two Top 5 players in Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska, crushing the Pole in the semifinalist 6-0, 6-4. Across the net in the final was No.6 Angelique Kerber, a woman who had only beaten her once and who was playing in her first Slam final. All signs pointed to a dominant Serena win.
As we know, that did not happen. Kerber shocked Serena and the world with a 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 win to capture her first Slam title.
“I made a lot of errors,” Serena said, recalling the match. “She made little to no unforced errors. It was still a three set match. I felt like I could have played better.
“I felt like she played great. She came out swinging, ready to win. She was fearless. That’s something I learned. When I go into a final, I, too, need to be fearless like she was.”
So why should we expect a different result at Wimbledon? The answer is right there in the question: Wimbledon. The Serena-Kerber match-up is one thing on a neutral hard court — all seven of their previous matches have been on hard court — but on grass the advantage sways heavily to Serena. No surface rewards her for her weapons like grass.
“I was very intense the whole time,” Serena said after her 6-2, 6-0 win over Elena Vesnina in the semifinals. “I ran and I worked hard. I served well, I moved well. The scoreline just reflected me doing what I know I can do.”
A look at the numbers posted during the fortnight all point to a Serena who is outperforming her 2016 self, particularly on her vaunted serve. Heading into the final, she leads the tournament in aces with 61 so far. That’s an average of 10 aces per match, compared to her season average of approximately 7 per match. She is averaging 66% of her first serves in at Wimbledon (season average: 60%) , winning 81% of her first serve points (season average: 73%) and 51% of her second serve points (season average: 50%). All in all, she’s won 90% of her service games in six matches (season average: 80%).
Serena has also picked up her return game. She has won 51% of her return games (season average: 44.8%) and she is attacking her opponents’ second serve with ferocity, winning 65% of the points on her opponent’s second serve (season average: 58%).
But the serve is the key for Serena. If she can roll through her first few games with clean holds, her shoulders will relax and her game will flow. One of the biggest mistakes she made in Melbourne was giving away an early break to Kerber in the first set. That break turned the match on its head and Serena got tighter as the match wore on. The way Serena has been serving at Wimbledon, I just don’t see the same thing happening on Saturday, even against a returner of Kerber’s quality.
“For me, it’s about obviously holding the trophy and winning, which would make it a better accomplishment for me,” Serena said. “For me, [making three consecutive finals is] not enough.
“But I think that’s what makes me different. That’s what makes me Serena.”
Of course the technical and tactical analysis only holds up if Serena can step out on the court and perform without the nerves that racked her in Melbourne. Throughout these two weeks, Serena has cut a confident, almost defiant form both on court and off court. She has met every question with a strong riposte. There has been a laser focus that has honed in as the tournament progressed. That mentality will take her to No.22 on Saturday.
“Sometimes when you are fighting, sometimes you want something so bad, it can hinder you a little bit,” Serena said. “Now I’m just a little bit more calm…. Doesn’t mean that I have less competitive [instincts] at all. I think confidence brews peace and calm in champions. I think that’s how I feel.”
David Kane, Counterpoint: If Serena is calmer, Angelique Kerber is relaxed, a feeling she has expressed several times in her last two press conferences.
“I’m feeling more relaxed and I’m not making things too complicated like in Australia,” she said after a decisive 6-4, 6-4 win over five-time Wimbledon winner Venus Williams in Thursday’s semifinal. “I think this is the key.”
“I’m a little bit more relaxed when I’m going to the tournaments,” she added later on. “I know that I can trust my tennis.”
It wouldn’t be a word you could attribute to Kerber for much of the spring. Early losses in the Middle East and Indian Wells foreshadowed a crushing first round loss at the French Open.
“In Paris, it was actually too much pressure that I put on myself. I learned from everything.”
The last 18 months have indeed been a learning process for the German veteran, who converted her 2015 success at Premier-level tournaments into Grand Slam glory with her stunning Australian Open victory. The pressure and expectations of being a major champion have been converted in kind, and Kerber raced into her first Wimbledon final without losing a set.
“I learned from my up and downs. I know how to handle all the stuff which I’m doing off court. I know that I have to take the time for my practice and focusing on the gym things and on the tennis, as well.”
For the soon-to-be World No.1, the tennis doesn’t look too different these days, as she’ll face Serena in the first Grand Slam final rematch since 2006, when International Tennis Hall of Fame Inductees Amélie Mauresmo and Justine Henin faced off in the Australian Open and Wimbledon finals.
It’s only everything else that’s changed.
“It’s a little bit different than in Australia because that was my first Grand Slam final there. Here I know what happens after. I know the experience what’s came directly after Australia.
“I think for sure I will go out there with a lot of confidence. At the end it’s a completely new match. We are playing on grass court. She lost the final against me, and I know she will go out and try everything to beat me right now.
“I will just try to going out there like in Australia, trying to show her, ‘Okay, I’m here to win the match, as well.’ I know that I have to play my best tennis to beat her in the final here.”
Kerber knows the serve will be an important factor in Saturday’s final, and as good as Serena has served, the German has held her own, maintaining a 71% first serve percentage in each of her last two rounds against Venus and No.5 seed Simona Halep. She has managed a postive winner-to-unforced error differential in all but one of her six matches at the All England Club, but will need to improve the 27% second serve percentage that nearly complicated an otherwise straightforward semifinal.
She also has the unenviable task of playing against history, as Serena once again aims to tie Stefanie Graf – Kerber’s compatriot – for total Grand Slam titles won at 22.
“It’s always tough to play against players like this. I mean, I will try to go in my own way, trying not thinking too much about the history of my opponents. It’s a new day, a new match. For me it’s always important to give everything I could this day.
Of course, it’s a big day for me tomorrow. I will try to go out and win it, of course. It’s always tough against Serena. But, I will try to take the experience from Australia and trying to be a little bit more relaxed.”
A relaxed Kerber has proven more than dangerous thus far this season; playing on one of her best surfaces with the confidence of a champion, the veteran will be more than a worthy contender on Centre Court come Saturday.
Here more from the WTA Insider team as Courtney Nguyen is joined by wtatennis.com contributor Chris Oddo to preview the Wimbledon final in the latest WTA Insider Podcast:
All photos courtesy of Getty Images.