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Insider Notebook: Upset Analysis

Insider Notebook: Upset Analysis

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

A deeper look at the Dubai upsets: After three days of play at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Champions, no seeds remain in the tournament. This is the first time the seeds went winless at a WTA event and just the fourth time no seeds advanced to the quarterfinals (2014 Bastad, 2012 Bogota, 2009 Hobart).

Needless to say, this week’s results in Dubai are a statistical anomaly, especially for a Premier tournament. The withdrawals of World No.1 Serena Williams, Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber, and Australian Open semifinalist Agnieszka Radwanska — the top three women on the Road to Singapore leaderboard — reshuffled the top seeds in Dubai and injected some level of unpredictability in a tournament where conditions are already tricky. The balls tend to fly and the courts have been recently resurfaced. Control is at a premium.

But a closer look at the top seeds’ opening round match-ups does provide some context for this unprecedented exodus. For No.5 seed Belinda Bencic and No.7 seed Roberta Vinci, who played the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy final on Sunday, both women arrived less than 24 hours before their opening round matches. Bencic lost to Jelena Jankovic, no slouch of a player herself, while Vinci looked understandably sluggish in a 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 loss to qualifier Yaroslava Shvedova.

As for the remaining six seeds:

Simona Halep

Ana Ivanovic d. No.1 Simona Halep 7-6(2), 6-2: It’s been a sputtering start to the season for Halep, who dropped to 3-3 this season. Halep took a late wildcard into Dubai after deciding to postpone nasal surgery. Her mantra from the start of the season has been simple and repetitive: Matches, matches, matches. Halep has yet to play herself into form and the rustiness, particularly on the big points, shows.

“I’m disappointed that I lost but it’s okay,” Halep said. “I feel good. Physically I’m okay. I have no pain anywhere. It’s good, and the most important thing is that I’m healthy.”

As for Ivanovic, she’s rebounded well from a disappointing 2015 season. After going 0-2 to start the year her level has improved week after week. She was dominated Madison Keys for most of their third round match at the Australian Open, but get nervous in the end, losing 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. She made the semifinals last week in St. Petersburg, only to lose to the slicing-and-dicing wiles of Vinci.

But Ivanovic carried that form into Dubai this week. She blasted No.35 Daria Gavrilova off the court in the first round, losing just one game. And her win over Halep on Wednesday was her first top 5 win since the 2014 WTA Finals, when she beat…Simona Halep.

Garbine Muguruza

Elina Svitolina d. No.2 Garbiñe Muguruza 7-6(3), 6-3: Svitolina has been playing at a good level. It just hasn’t been obvious after a surprising second round loss to Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open. Could her decision to hire Justine Henin as a coaching consultant inject a sense of urgency in the Ukrainian’s game? Her improvement over the years has been steady but the Henin hiring may just signal a new level of hunger and ambition.

Much like Halep, Muguruza’s 2016 start has struggled to gain traction. A foot injury left her undercooked in Melbourne, where she lost in the third round to Barbora Strycova. Against Svitolina she hit 68 unforced errors in two sets.

“I’m not really finding my game, so I think I have to rest a little bit and concentrate again and work hard and eventually come back to the tournament to play again,” Muguruza said after the loss. “I think I’m not really ready to compete. I need to work a little bit more. My shots, my fitness. So we’ll see.”

She told reporters she’s still dealing with her foot injury and her participation in next week’s Qatar Total Open is up in the air. “If I’m not 100%, I don’t think it’s necessary,” she said. “So we’ll see these couple of days.”

– Caroline Garcia d. No.3 Carla Suárez Navarro 4-6. 6-4, 6-3: The young Frenchwoman has an uncanny ability to use a strong Fed Cup weekend as a springboard to confident play on tour. She was the hero in France’s win over Italy two weeks ago, scoring singles wins over Sara Errani and Camila Giorgi.

– Madison Brengle d. No.4 Petra Kvitova 0-6, 7-6(1), 6-3: At I highlighted in my last Notebook, Kvitova is at a crossroads right now. She drops to 1-5 this season, with that sole win coming against No. 143 Luksika Kumkhum in the first round of the Australian Open, and announced a surprising split with long-time coach David Kotyza. The high-flying conditions in Dubai have not been easy for the Czech. Setting aside a title run in 2013, she has not made it past the second round and lost in the opening round at four of five appearances.

Coco Vandeweghe

CoCo Vandeweghe d. No.6 Karolina Pliskova 7-6(5), 6-1: The two split their two prior meetings, so it’s not like this result was out of the blue for Vandeweghe. But it’s been difficult to get a read on Pliskova’s form in 2016. She had a fantastic Fed Cup run two weeks ago, scoring a three-set win over Halep. In Sydney she earned two good wins over Ivanovic and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. But she has yet to win more than two matches at a tour event.

– Julia Goerges d. No.8 Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-0, 6-1: The erratic nature of her game persists — we’re talking about Goerges here — but the German has been very good this season. Kuznetsova had little chance against her in the first round, with Goerges blasting 28 winners and 15 unforced errors.

Projected Rankings: The big news on Monday: Roberta Vinci will finally make her Top 10 debut. Despite losing in the first round she’ll move up three spots after Suarez Navarro, Lucie Safarova, and Venus Williams drop.

Next week’s projected rankings:

1. Serena
2. Kerber
3. Radwanska (+1)
4. Halep (-1)
5. Muguruza
6. Sharapova
7. Bencic (+2, career-high)
8. Kvitova
9. Pennetta (-2)
10. Vinci (+3, Top 10 debut)
11. Suarez Navarro
12. Safarova (-2)
13. Venus (-1)
14. Azarenka (or Ivanovic wins the title)
15. Bacsinszky (or Azarenka if Ivanovic wins the title)

All photos courtesy of Getty Images.

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Kvitova Cruises Against Makarova

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

NEW HAVEN, CT, USA – No.6 seed Petra Kvitova is back into the Connecticut Open semifinals for the fifth year in a row after defeating Ekaterina Makarova 6-3, 6-1 in exactly one hour.

Watch live action from New Haven this week on WTA Live powered by TennisTV!

Kvitova and Makarova are quickly building up a fierce rivalry in 2016, with this match being their fourth encounter in 2016 alone.

Decidedly quicker than the last several matches they’ve played, which both went almost two hours long. In fact, it went a little more like the last time they played in New Haven, back in 2014, when Kvitova stomped past Makarova in straight sets in just 49 minutes.

“Maybe the court helped me,” Kvitova said. “Maybe, I don’t know, I was ready to battle again. Just knew that I had to be really focusing on each point.

“I think I played better here. I served better, for sure. I just think it was really, you know, helpful for me today. Couple of the matches which we played before today was always a little bit tricky. I think in each of them that I had chances to win it, but I didn’t really take it. Today I just played good match again.”

Kvitova and Makarova stayed toe to toe during the tightly drawn first set, with the lone break at 4-2 going the way of the Czech. She held on to the slight lead to take the opening set, then found an extra gear in the second, breaking three times and reeling off six games in a row to close out the match in exactly an hour.

With the win Kvitova is back in the semifinals of the Connecticut Open for the fifth consecutive time.

Despite the fact that New Haven has become her happiest of hunting grounds outside of her favored Wimbledon – winning three titles and reaching four finals in her last four appearances – Kvitova still can’t say what it is about this tournament that she loves so much. She just likes it here.

“I don’t know. I always looking forward to be here,” Kvitova mused in press. “I’m here. I just feel so relaxed. We always have our kind of restaurants and breakfast shop where we are going every morning, having just easy time. It’s easy to get here, like 10 minutes, not that much.

“I don’t know. I just feel everything, it’s so easy. Even the court. Of course with a lot of success that I have here, it’s better to play.”

Kvitova is set to face Agnieszka Radwanska for a spot in the final.

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Konta Adds Famed Coach Wim Fissette Ahead Of 2017 Season

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

In one of the most significant coaching hires of the off-season, World No.10 Johanna Konta has brought on Wim Fissette as her coach to begin the 2017 season. Fissette was the long-time coach to Kim Clijsters and has recently worked with Simona Halep, Madison Keys, and Victoria Azarenka until her pregnancy leave last summer.

Konta is coming off a breakthrough 2015 season, which saw her win her first WTA title at the Bank of the West Classic, advance to her first major semifinal at the Australian Open, and surge from No.47 at the start of the season to become the first British woman to finish the season inside the Top 10 since Jo Durie in 1983. Her decision to split with coach Estaban Carrill was met with surprise, but Konta has landed one of the best coaches on tour in Fissette.

Known for his tennis acumen and amiable demeanor, Konta cited their positive chemistry in her decision to bring the Belgian on.

“He was the first coach I trialled and things are going well,” Konta told The Independent. “I guess he’s been on the Tour for quite some time, so I’m definitely looking forward to being a sponge and absorbing as much of his experience and knowledge through the years.”

Speaking to The Independent, Konta reflected on her sudden but mutual decision to part ways with Carrill, who had coached her through her meteoric rise over the last 18 months.

“But like with every relationship, I think there comes a point where changes need to be made, Konta said. “For both of us to keep evolving and keep getting better, it was definitely the right time. It gave me the opportunity to go into my pre-season with a new set-up so that I can then start my next season already in the swing of things.”

It has been an emotionally tough off-season for Konta after the death of her mental coach Juan Coto. Throughout her surge up the rankings, Konta, once a hot-headed, nervy player who struggled to close out matches, cited her work with Coto for her more grounded, simple approach to her game and career. Coto passed away suddenly in November.

“I know that Juan would be supportive of me continuously improving that area because it’s more than just tennis, it’s about my life,” Konta said. “He’s still very much a part of everything that I do, everything that I will continue to do in this sport and this career, and most likely beyond that as well. He has gifted me with an incredible amount of tools and habits that I still to this day am looking to improve, every single day.”

Konta begins her 2017 season at the Shenzhen Open, which begins on January 1st, and is scheduled to play the Apia International in Sydney as well to prepare for the first major of the season at the Australian Open.

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Kvitova Off Court For At Least Six Months

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

Petra Kvitova could be back on a tennis court in six months, her surgeon said on Wednesday.

The two-time Wimbledon champion underwent surgery to repair severe lacerations and damage to her left hand and fingers after she was attacked in her home in Prostejov on Tuesday.

“Surgeon Radek Kebrle said that the operation on Petra’s left hand went very well, with no complications,” Kvitova’s publicist said in a statement.

“Petra will be on bed rest for 14 days, she will begin slow rehabilitation at around 6-8 weeks post operation. If that rehabilitation process goes well, Petra should be able to grip a racket for the first time (but not play tennis) at three months. The best-case scenario is that Petra will be able to return to the tennis court after six months.

“It is too soon to specify when precisely she can return to competition, but Petra is ready to do everything she can to get back competing at the highest level. Petra is happy with how the operation went and is in good spirits.”

Kvitova had ended the season ranked No.11 after a run to a second title of 2016 at the Huajin Securities WTA Elite Trophy Zhuhai.

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Schiavone, Rogers Reach Rio Final

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil – Former World No.4 and 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone reached her first WTA final since 2013 with a 6-3, 6-3 win over Petra Martic.

Playing in her first WTA semifinal in nearly 18 months (2014, Hong Kong), Schiavone put down four aces and won 84% of points behind her first serve against Martic, herself a former World No.42 who one made the second week of Roland Garros back in 2012.

It had been a difficult start to 2016 for Schiavone, who missed out on a 62nd consecutive Grand Slam main draw appearance when she fell in the second round of qualifying at the Australian Open.

“When I chose Rio, I chose it mainly because it was clay,” Schiavone said in her post-match press conference. “I remembered the conditions here being very difficult, so I trained as much as is possible for me to prepare myself on clay to be ready for the heat and the effort.

“Obviously when you come here, you try to prepare as much as you can, but you don’t think ‘I’m going there to win it,’ no, no. It’s a wonderful surprise; it’s been a long time since I’ve had this big a result, so I’m taking it as it comes.”

Schiavone next plays resurgent American Shelby Rogers. Playing her first WTA main draw since the Coupe Banque Nationale last fall, Rogers ended the excellent adventure of Sorana Cirstea, a former World No.21 who had amassed a 12-1 record heading into the semifinal by reaching back-to-back finals at two Challenger tournaments in Brazil.

“It feels amazing. I’ve had a really great week, played some good matches,” Rogers said in her post-match press conference. “I got a little momentum at the beginning, but this year has been good so far; I’ve already played a lot of matches, so that’s been a big help.

“Winning this many matches in a row and playing very well is definitely a confidence-builder, but I’ve also had to fight through some tough moments in those matches. Those are where I really get confidence from, so hopefully I can carry that into tomorrow and through the rest of the year.”

Rogers won, 6-4, 6-4, and will be playing Schiavone for the first time in what will be her second career WTA final (Schiavone’s 18th).

“Rogers is a player I don’t know very well,” Schiavone said. “But it’s going to be interesting. A final is really a 50-50 chance.”

In doubles, Veronica Cepede Royg and María Irigoyen captured the doubles final with a 6-1, 7-6(5) win over Tara Moore and Conny Perrin. For Paraguay’s Cepede Royg, the Rio Open is her first WTA title of any king, while Irigoyen won her only previous WTA title back in 2014, playing doubles in Rio with Irina-Camelia Begu.

“I want to thank my partner for the amazing week we had here in Rio,” Cepede Royg said after the match. “I’m really happy for winning my first WTA title in Rio.:

“This is such an enchanting place and the city is beautiful,” Irigoyen added. “I love coming here, people are really receptive and it was a special week.”

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Australian Open Prize Purse Hits Record $50 Million Total

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

MELBOURNE, Australia – The Australian Open has increased prize money to an historic high of $50 million, up 14% on 2016.  Men and women singles winners will each get $3.7m while a first round loser will receive $50,000.

“We are committed to further improving the pay and conditions on the international tennis tour to ensure every professional tennis player is properly compensated,” said Australian Open Tournament Director CEO Craig Tiley.

“It was especially important for us to increase the compensation for players in the early rounds and qualifying, and this year we have made some real gains. We are constantly reviewing ways to improve the life of every player on tour, not just the Top 100. This includes increasing prize money as well as removing as many costs as possible associated with playing our events.

“Our aim is to shift the break-even point for professional players, to ensure that tennis is a viable career option for the best male and female athletes in the world. We are also committed to equal prize money, equal exposure and equal opportunity for men and women.

“We are proud of our record in looking after the players, and will continue the push for increased prize money for professional players.”

The tournament’s prize money has more than tripled since 2001, when it was $13.9m, with a $10 million increase since 2014.

2016 Year-End World No.1 Angelique Kerber is the defending champion, having defeated then-No.1 Serena Williams in a thrilling three-set final Down Under. 

Round-by-round individual prize money for the Australian Open singles tournaments are as follows:

Men’s and Women’s Main Draw Singles

Winner

$3,700,000

Runner-up

$1,850,000

Semifinal

$820,000

Quarterfinal

$410,000

Round 4

$220,000

Round 3

$130,000

Round 2

$80,000

Round 1

$50,000

Men’s and Women’s Qualifying Singles

Round 3

$25,000

Round 2

$12,500

Round 1

$6,250

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