Ubha: Rome Draw Predictions
With only one of the top eight advancing to the quarterfinals in Madrid, the seeds didn’t fare well in the Spanish capital. The upsets, indeed, were akin to Dubai.
So what does Rome hold? More of the same?
Here’s a look at the draw, which is highlighted by the return of 21-time Grand Slam winner Serena Williams.
First quarter: Williams’ tough road
In her first clay court tournament of 2016 — and her first tournament overall since Miami — the draw gods seemingly did Serena no favors.
Following a bye, the World No.1 begins with an ‘Anna,’ either Anna-Lena Friedsam or Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. While the ranking dictates Schmiedlova will progress, the Slovak is enduring a difficult campaign after a breakthrough 2015. If Friedsam progresses, she’ll be buoyed by grabbing a set off Williams at the French Open last year.
Then a slew of Grand Slam champs or finalists could come, with Ana Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Simona Halep all in the mix. It was, of course, twice Rome finalist Kuznetsova who stunned Williams at the Miami Open, the event the latter adores. (Victoria Azarenka and Roberta Vinci feature in Williams’ half, too.)
Daria Gavrilova truly announced herself to the tennis world in Rome 12 months ago, battling through tough matches to reach the semis as a qualifier. Struggling for a few months after flourishing at home in Melbourne, she regained some momentum in Madrid.
Halep — speaking of players recapturing momentum — and Gavrilova could clash in the second round.
Prediction: Kuznetsova
Second quarter: How is Vika feeling?
Azarenka entered Madrid with a long winning streak. She left Madrid with the streak intact. Unfortunately for Azarenka, a back injury ruled out the former No.1 ahead of her third-round tussle with rising American Louisa Chirico.
Just how is the back now? With the French Open around the corner and little time between Rome and Madrid, Azarenka could be forgiven for erring on the side of caution at the Foro Italico.
Her probable first-round foe is Irina-Camelia Begu, part of the Romanian contingent that thrived in Madrid. When they tangled a year ago in Rome, Begu extended the Belarusian to three sets. The third round might bring Karolina Pliskova, who was upset in Madrid by Christina McHale.
With their game styles — and personalities — Italians Francesca Schiavone and Roberta Vinci are firm fan favorites. But with Vinci suggesting this is her last year on the circuit and wildcard Schiavone turning 36 in June, is this the last appearance for both in Rome?
How Vinci, then, would dearly love to turn it around in Rome. She has suffered three straight defeats there and lost her opener in four of the past five seasons. Johanna Konta figures to be the seventh seed’s opponent in the second round.
And how the home fans would love to see Schiavone, who starts against Prague winner Lucie Safarova, and Vinci meet in the third round.
Prediction: Vinci
Third quarter: Last year’s finalist
Samantha Stosur certainly played well in her victory over Carla Suárez Navarro in Madrid, yet the Spaniard was hampered because of illness. If she has sufficiently recovered, Suarez Navarro is the favorite to emerge from her quarter.
Not only did Suárez Navarro appear in the final a year ago — when she was close to ousting Maria Sharapova in straight sets — but there were quarterfinal showings on her previous two trips to Rome.
She could, however, battle a player in form in the third round, in No.11 seed Timea Bacsinszky. Bacsinszky won a clay-court title in Morocco a week ago and proceeded to post two good wins in Madrid, over the former Top 10 duo of Ekaterina Makarova and Andrea Petkovic. Perhaps fatigue was a factor in her defeat to Halep, who the Swiss had toppled in Miami.
The two seeds lower down in the quarter, Elina Svitolina and Garbiñe Muguruza, are a combined 3-5 in their last eight encounters, which should raise the spirits of the unseeded in the vicinity, such as Makarova, Istanbul finalist Danka Kovinic and Kristina Mladenovic.
Prediction: Suárez Navarro
Fourth quarter: An early blockbuster?
As a two-time winner, three-time finalist and having advanced to the semifinals as recently as two years ago, Jelena Jankovic has enjoyed tremendous success in Rome. Perhaps Rome is where Jankovic’s season ignites following a shoulder injury and being diagnosed with a cyst on her thyroid gland.
Jankovic’s opener is interesting enough — against 2014 Wimbledon finalist Eugenie Bouchard. But if the Serb wins, she lands No.2 seed Angelique Kerber.
For the second year running, Kerber won in Stuttgart and exited in her first match in Madrid. This time it came against Barbora Strycova.
Who could Kerber potentially play in the third round? None other than the versatile Czech. Or it could be Sara Errani, who delighted the locals by landing in the final in 2014.
At the top of the quarter, Petra Kvitova — who downed Jankovic in Rome last year — draws either Madison Keys or Petkovic in the second round. Tough.
And Serena isn’t the lone member of the family to be making a return to action.
Venus is back and plays her fellow American with the big serve, CoCo Vandeweghe.
Prediction: Kerber
Semifinals: Kuznetsova, Kerber
Winner: Kerber
