Insider Draw Analysis: US Open
The US Open draw is out and it’s a doozy. With No.1 Serena Williams chasing Steffi Graf in the record books and No.2 Angelique Kerber chasing down Serena in the rankings, here’s how the draw shook out.
At a glance:
Where did the top seeds land?
Top Half: No.1 Serena Williams, No.4 Agnieszka Radwanska, No.5 Simona Halep, No.6 Venus Williams.
Bottom Half: No.2 Angelique Kerber, No. 3 Garbiñe Muguruza, No.7 Roberta Vinci, No.8 Madison Keys.
Potential Round of 16: Serena Williams vs. Samantha Stosur, Simona Halep vs. Carla Suárez Navarro, Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Timea Bacsinszky, Venus Williams vs. Karolina Pliskova, Madison Keys vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova, Garbiñe Muguruza vs. Johanna Konta, Roberta Vinci vs. Dominika Cibulkova, Angelique Kerber vs. Petra Kvitova.
Potential Quarterfinals: Serena Williams vs. Simona Halep, Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Venus Williams, Garbiñe Muguruza vs. Madison Keys, Angelique Kerber vs. Roberta Vinci.
Seven Thoughts on the Draw:
Tough opener, tough draw for Serena Williams: Earlier this week I took stock of Serena’s chances at this year’s US Open, which sees her come into the tournament with just three singles matches under her belt since winning Wimbledon and nursing a right shoulder injury. Despite the questions surrounding her lead-up getting a soft early draw might allow her to play into form in the first week.
That’s not the draw she got.
Serena opens her tournament against one of the toughest unseeded players in the draw in World No.36 Ekaterina Makarova. Two years ago this was a semifinal here in New York, which Serena won 6-1, 6-3 en route to the title. Makarova has beaten Serena at a Slam back in 2012 at the Australian Open.
“She’s a big fighter,” Serena said during media day on Friday. “She never really stops. I think one thing I think that’s pretty impressive is she gets a lot of balls back. You think she’s not super quick, but she is.”
From there the draw gets no easier for Serena. She’s in a quarter that includes last year’s semifinalist Simona Halep, who has lost just one match since Wimbledon, along with Wimbledon semifinalist Elena Vesnina, Carla Suárez Navarro, Sam Stosur, Daria Kasatkina, and Camila Giorgi. Potentially looming in the semifinals: Her sister. Venus Williams, Agnieszka Radwanska, and Western & Southern Open champion Karolina Pliskova look to be the favorites to get out of the second quarter.
Simona Halep’s uphill climb: Of all the top seeds, No.5 Halep got the “draw loser” of the day. The World No.5 was a win away from securing a Top 4 seed last week in Cincinnati. She ended up losing to the only woman who has beaten her since the French Open, Angelique Kerber; as luck would have it, she may have to beat Serena to equal her semifinal result from last year.
The road to get to the quarterfinals will be a tough one, and Halep will need to be sharp from her first match, where she opens against Kirsten Flipkens, who is coming into New York with some confidence after making the quarterfinals at the Connecticut Open. Halep could then face either Lucie Safarova or Daria Gavrilova in the second round, with Timea Babos looming in the third round. That’s not an easy first week if those players play near their best.
Angelique Kerber has good look at No.1: Aside from a potential second round match against Alizé Cornet and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, this is a good draw for the German, who has a chance of taking over the No.1 ranking from Serena after the US Open. She opens against World No.116 Polona Hercog, but then has very winnable potential match-ups against Sara Errani, Petra Kvitova or Elina Svitolina (both are still playing in New Haven) in the Round of 16, with a struggling Roberta Vinci or Dominika Cibulkova in the quarterfinals.
Garbiñe Muguruza and Madison Keys anchor a balanced quarter: Muguruza and Keys headline the third quarter which is most notable for the number of Americans landing in this section as well as the overall youth and rising stars. No.8 Keys will have to go through two Americans in her first two rounds, as she opens against Alison Riske and Madison Brengle or wildcard Kayla Day in the second round. She could face a third American in the third round in No.28 seed CoCo Vandeweghe.
Muguruza, meanwhile, could see a rematch of her Olympic loss to Gold Medalist Monica Puig, who slid into the No.32 seed after Sloane Stephens was forced to withdraw with a foot injury. Those two could face off in the third round. Muguruza’s potential Round of 16 opponent is No.13 seed Johanna Konta. The Brit has a nice draw into the second week, though her opening round against Bethanie Mattek-Sands could be tricky depending on the American’s post-Olympic comedown.
Spoiler Alert: In total, the bottom half of the draw is fairly balanced and drama-free, but there are four veteran women who look primed to cause some upsets. No.9 Svetlana Kuznetsova and No.18 Barbora Strycova could derail Keys’ quest for a breakthrough run on home soil, while No.14 seed Petra Kvitova and No.12 seed Dominika Cibulkova could be the ones who knock Kerber out early.
Karolina Pliskova could finally snap her Slam slump: No.10 seed Pliskova tore through the draw in Cincinnati last week, easily beating both Muguruza and Kerber for the biggest title of her career. But she’s never made the second round of a Slam…anywhere. Her best result here was the third round in 2014. That should change this year.
Pliskova was drawn into a soft quarter with Radwanska, who has never played particularly well in New York, and Venus Williams, who can be a wildcard on any given day. Pliskova could face Venus in the Round of 16 and Radwanska in the quarterfinals.
The Olympic Effect: For players like Monica Puig, Venus Williams, Petra Kvitova, Elena Vesnina, and Bethanie Mattek-Sands, can they translate their Olympic success into Slam success? Kvitova is the only one to have played since Rio and she is already into the semifinals of New Haven. Understandably, Puig will be under the spotlight in New York. As the first athlete ever to bring a gold medal home to Puerto Rico, everyone will be looking to see if she can back it up with more strong play in front of a partisan crowd.
First Round Matches to Watch:
Top Half: Serena Williams vs. Ekaterina Makarova, Camila Giorgi vs. Samantha Stosur, Lucie Safarova vs. Daria Gavrilova, Simona Halep vs. Kirsten Flipkens, Eugenie Bouchard vs. Katarina Siniakova, Julia Goerges, Yanina Wickmayer.
Bottom Half: Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Francesca Schiavone, Petra Kvitova vs. Jelena Ostapenko, Alizé Cornet vs. Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Johanna Konta vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands, Madison Keys vs. Alison Riske, CoCo Vandeweghe vs. Naomi Osaka, Barbora Strycova vs. Monica Niculescu, Yulia Putintseva vs. Sabine Lisicki.
