As the Wimbledon third round commences on Friday, seeded players begin to square off for the first time at The Championships. Three such matches are on the Day 5 docket, with Carlos Alcaraz meeting Oscar Otte, Novak Djokovic facing fellow Serbian Miomir Kecmanovic and Jannik Sinner taking on John Isner.

Ninth seed Cameron Norrie will close the day’s play on Centre Court against American Steve Johnson following Djokovic’s match.

In doubles action, third seeds Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski join sixth-seeded Colombians Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah as the day’s headliners.

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[5] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs. Oscar Otte (GER)

Alcaraz’s wait for his Centre Court debut continues, with this matchup slated for No. 1 Court, but the Spaniard’s bid to extend his best Wimbledon run is firmly in his own hands. The 19-year-old will look to control the proceedings against Otte with his all-action style as he continues to adapt his game to the grass.

“Playing on grass is so beautiful for me,” Alcaraz said after his straight-sets win over Tallon Griekspoor on Wednesday. “I like to play on grass and I enjoy playing here at Wimbledon.”

The fifth seed overturned a two-sets-to-one deficit in a tense first-round battle with Jan-Lennard Struff — his first grass-court match of the season — and looked more assured with his movement in his second outing.

“I felt more comfortable today than the first round,” he said. “But obviously, I need more hours on court, on grass, to feel more comfortable.”

So far he has spent over six hours on the London lawns, including his four-hour, 11-minute opener. By contrast, Otte has spent just one hour, 33 miniutes on court this fortnight. After racing past countryman Peter Gojowczyk with the loss of just four games, he moved past Christian Harrison after the American retired 15 minutes into their second-round match.

But the German has had plenty of practise on the grass this month, reaching the semi-finals at both Stuttgart and Halle. In those semi-finals, he tested Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev but lost a combined three tie-breaks in two defeats. With upset wins over Denis Shapovalov and Karen Khachanov, Otte brings a 7-2 grass-court record into the Wimbledon third round, including his second-round win.

[1] Novak Djokovic (SER) vs. [25] Miomir Kecmanovic (SER)

Djokovic and Kecmanovic are set to take their show on the road after two previous meetings in Belgrade, the home city of both men.

Kecmanovic is seeded this fortnight for the second time at a Grand Slam, having entered Wimbledon at a career-high of No. 30 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. The 22-year-old lived up to the billing last month at Roland Garros, advancing to the third round before bowing out to Medvedev.

He once again faces one of the ATP Tour’s best in the Wimbledon third round as he prepares for his third ATP Head2Head clash with his countryman. Djokovic won their two Belgrade quarter-final meetings in 2021 and 2022, with Kecmanovic taking a set this April.

Djokovic went on to reach the final at this year’s Serbia Open — his third event of 2022 — and has since played his way into top form. He was particularly happy with his performance in his second-round Wimbledon win over Thanasi Kokkinakis, after he dropped a set to Soonwoo Kwon two days prior in his first grass-court match of the season.

“I think the quality of tennis was really high from my side,” he said Wednesday after a 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 victory. “Much better than the first match performance… I played with not too many unforced errors from the back of the court. Whenever I needed to put the return in, I did. So all in all just a really, really satisfying performance.”

🔜 Round 3 @DjokerNole defeats Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-1 6-4 6-2 to secure himself a place in the next round! 🙌

📹: @Wimbledon | #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/Xzs9BtzAtq

— ATP Tour (@atptour) June 29, 2022

The top seed will need another strong performance against Kecmanovic, who reached six straight tour-level quarter-finals from February through April, including a semi-final showing in Munich. But he was 0-2 on the grass this season before his four-set victories against John Millman and Alejandro Tabilo this week.

[10] Jannik Sinner (ITA) vs. [20] John Isner (USA)

Sinner outclassed Stan Wawrinka across four sets in one of the headline matches of the opening round, earning his first career grass win, then downed Mikael Ymer in four sets to reach the Wimbledon third round for the first time. The Italian faces an entirely different proposition against John Isner on Day 5.

The American is set for a big day, win or lose. With five aces, he will overtake Ivo Karlovic for the career ace record, currently standing at 13,728.

“Looks like Jannik Sinner will be on the receiving end of the record-breaker,” Isner said in his post-match presser. “I hope I didn’t totally jinx myself,” he added with a laugh, “but I think I should be able to get [five] aces in my next match.”

Isner followed a 54-ace barrage in a five-set win against Enzo Couacaud with 36 against Andy Murray in the second round. He was never broken by Murray as he earned his first ATP Head2Head win in nine matches against the Briton, and now seeks his second win in three matches opposite Sinner.

What a win for Isner! 🇺🇸@JohnIsner wins the battle against Andy Murray 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 and is now into the 3⃣rd round 💪

📹: @Wimbledon | #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/wanA9zzN8J

— ATP Tour (@atptour) June 29, 2022

“For sure it’s a very, very tough match, especially here on grass” the Italian previewed. “He serves well. Hopefully I can read a little bit his serve, but it’s one of the toughest challenges, returning John’s serve.

“There are for sure some important moments, especially when he’s serving. So for sure I will try my best. I will not [have] so much rhythm, so let’s see.”

Also In Action

Norrie will enjoy the support of the Centre Court crowd as he looks to become the first Briton into the fourth round with a win against Johnson. The ninth seed is the lone British man still standing in the top half of the mens’ singles draw, with Liam Broady representing Great Britain in the bottom half.

Johnson, who downed home favourite Ryan Peniston in the second round, is one of seven Americans in the third round. (An eighth will follow upon the conclusion of the rain-delayed match between Jack Sock and Maxime Cressy.) In addition to Johnson and Isner, 23rd seed Frances Tiafoe and 30th seed Tommy Paul are also in the top half. Tiafoe faces Alexander Bublik on Friday while Paul takes on Jiri Vesely.

In the day’s lone match between unseeded men, Ugo Humbert faces David Goffin, while 22nd seed Nikoloz Basilashvili takes on surprise ‘s-Hertogenbosch champion Tim van Rijthoven.

Here’s a thought experiment: If John Isner hit ONLY first serves, would he win or lose more service games than his career average?

For clarity, the 37-year-old would still get two serves every point. But if he missed his first serve, he would hit another full-pace serve instead of a traditional second serve with more spin and less pace.

“I have a buddy who is super into analytics, and he is a really smart guy and he is a firm believer that is something I should do. Just going for two first serves,” said Isner, who on Friday is likely to set a new world record for most career aces, needing just five against Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon third round to pass current leader Ivo Karlovic.

“There have been some situations where I have had the mindset of doing that, where my second serves have been massive. Less of a kick, more two first serves and it has served me well in the past. The key is to really, really commit to it.”

If only there were a way to stress test the idea. Enter Alex Michaels, a data scientist for TennisViz, the provider driving new statistical insights for Tennis Data Innovations, including new metrics such as Balance of Power, Conversion and Steal scores.

Michaels wrote a program that extrapolated Isner’s Infosys ATP Stats career averages for first serve percentage (69.1%) and first-serve winning percentage (78.7%) over 1 million service games, randomising those percentages to simulate match play. The mission was to identify whether a strategy of hitting first serves only would result in Isner improving his mark of holding 91.8 per cent of service games.

“I wanted to simulate randomness of performance in a match,” Michaels said. “While John puts about two out of every three first serves into play, there will be times when he makes five in a row or 10 in a row, and times when he may miss five in a row.”

While hitting two first serves would be a massive tactical change, the data show that it would have a very minor impact. Michaels’ model reveals that Isner would win 91.4 per cent of service games, down marginally from his career average of 91.8 per cent.

“I thought it would be close to his normal rate or maybe even slightly better, given his first serve is so powerful,” Michaels said. “This of course doesn’t account for the mental side. You don’t know how someone will react to serving a lot of double faults and whether they can be immune to the pressure of hitting a big second serve at crucial moments.”

Isner also noted that real-world pressure may impact winning percentages. “What’s hard about it would be having the conviction to go for another massive serve at 6/5 in a tie-break after missing your first serve,” he said.

 
Photo: Corinne Dubreuil

While Isner isn’t ready to go ‘all in’ with the radical tactic, he says that there are some situations in which hitting two first serves is the right play.

“If I am playing Djokovic, I sort of know I have to do that,” the father of three said. “If I am playing someone ranked much lower than Djokovic at 70 or 80, of course he is still an incredible player, but it might be a little harder mentally to get myself up for hitting two first serves.”

Although hitting two first serves results in little change for Isner’s rate of holding serve, data show that players with more modest first serves would see a significant decline in the percentage of service games held if they adopted the tactic.

Michaels cited Frenchman Hugo Gaston as an example. The Frenchman puts about 60 per cent of first serves into play, wins about 65 per cent of first-serve points and holds about 73 per cent of service games. On Michaels’ modelling, Gaston would win just 62 per cent of service games if he hit two first serves.

Isner’s career 69.1 first-serve percentage tops the chart for all active players. He is fourth on the list of career first-serve points won (78.7%) behind leader Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic and Sam Querrey. He is second among active players for best percentage of service games held (91.8%), behind only Karlovic (92%)

The 6′ 10″ American is third on the list of second-serve points won (56.1%) behind only leader Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.

Rafael Nadal spread the love after his second-round Wimbledon victory on Thursday, speaking at length about three of the WTA Tour’s biggest stars. In his post-match press conference, the Spaniard was asked about Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff — both of whom were also victorious on Day 4 — as well as reigning US Open champion Emma Raducanu.

Nadal has been the subject of admiration from all corners of the tennis world, with many WTA players commending his legendary fighting spirit and his strong start to the 2022 season. World No. 1 Swiatek was on hand to see the Spaniard win the Australian Open final in January, and Nadal revealed he has been watching the Polish star throughout her 37-match win streak as well.

“I texted her a couple of times because it’s unbelievable the way that she’s playing,” Nadal said. “It’s unbelievable the way that she’s able to hold the concentration and the winning spirit for such a long time. I think it’s something very difficult to make that happen.”

Swiatek has not lost a match since February, winning six titles on her winning streak. Nadal gave his opinion on why she has been so tough to beat.

“I think when she’s playing well, it’s very difficult to stop her because her shots are little bit different, with a lot of power. She’s able to move well. When she’s [playing] with confidence, I think she has shots that are very difficult to stop for the rest of the girls.

“I like her. I think she has a very positive attitude, fresh air for the world of tennis. Happy that a good girl like her is having a lot of success.”

Raducanu returned to her home Grand Slam as a superstar after her shock US Open triumph last year, but has struggled to replicate that sort of form in 2022 and bowed out at SW19 in the second round. While Nadal stopped short of offering advice, he gave the 19-year-old a supreme vote of confidence.

“I was very impressed when I saw her winning the US Open,” he said. “I saw the final. The way that she played was unbelievable.

“It’s difficult to manage all this kind of success at a very early stage of your life. But I wish her all the very best. I think she is an important character for our sport.”

Echoing the Briton’s comments after her loss to Caroline Garcia, Nadal feels Raducanu’s US Open title could serve to take some pressure off in the bigger picture.

“I know she’s having a tough year, but on the other hand she already won a Slam at a very early stage of her career. That gives her, I think, calm to take her time to keep improving and to keep having chances in the near future. I really hope that she will.”

Nadal sees similar greatness in Coco Gauff, both on and off the court. He predicted the American to win multiple Grand Slams and was equally complimentary of her maturity off the court.

“I like her, the way that she talks to the crowd, to the press at the end of the matches,” he said. “She’s fresh. She’s natural. Looks very mature in her thoughts.

“I think she is a fighter. I like the way that she plays. She fight for every ball. Even sometimes when she’s not playing that well, she keeps fighting until the end, running for every ball.”

The 18-year-old reached the Roland Garros final this season, falling to Swiatek, and is now seeking her third straight fourth-round run at Wimbledon.

“I think, if she’s able just to improve a little bit with this physical performance that she has, probably we’ll talk about the player that she will be: [a] multi-Grand Slam winner.”

Stefanos Tsitsipas set a blockbuster clash with Nick Kyrgios on Thursday when he cruised past Jordan Thompson 6-2, 6-3, 7-5 to reach the third round at Wimbledon for just the second time.

The Greek looked sharp throughout his two-hour and four-minute clash against Thompson on Court 1, opening his shoulders to dictate from the baseline. The fourth seed, who is making his fifth appearance at Wimbledon, struck 29 winners and broke the Australian six times to improve to 2-0 in their ATP Head2Head series.

“It was a great match today. I got the crowd involved and even though I am not a Brit, I really felt the love from the crowd and that pushed me,” Tsitsipas said in his on-court interview.

“Last year was a completely different story [compared] to this year,” he added. “I wasn’t really that involved with [my movement] behind the ball. It is great to see that evolution this year. I feel grass suites my game perfectly. I am happy when I see the level of tennis I played today. As long as everything works, I am happy to see where that will lead me.”

Tsitsipas clinched his first grass-court title in Mallorca last week and has quickly found his feet in London following the short journey from Spain. His victory over Thompson means he now holds an 8-2 record on the surface this season, having won just eight tour-level matches on grass before 2022.

The World No. 5 has captured a Tour-leading 42 wins this season and will next play Australian Kyrgios after the six-time tour-level titlist downed Filip Krajinovic in straight sets. Kyrgios holds a 3-1 lead over Tsitsipas, having won their most recent match on grass in Halle earlier this month.

“I feel that there isn’t a single person here who doesn’t know Nick. We have played each other and had great matches against each other in many tour-level matches,” Tsitsipas said as he looked ahead to his clash against Kyrgios. “I have great respect for his game, that he can utilise his talents. Really fight when he really wants to. It is going to be a challenging one on grass. He is a big opponent on this surface.”

Under the roof on Court 1, Tsitsipas quickly gained control, demonstrating great footwork to dictate on his forehand. The Greek was strong off that wing throughout, while he showcased great touch at times up at net to outmanoeuvre Thompson. Following a commanding first two sets, Tsitsipas remained patient in the third set, gaining the decisive break in the 12th game to seal victory.

Tsitsipas’ best performance at Wimbledon came in 2018, when he reached the fourth round. The 23-year-old, who lost to Frances Tiafoe in the first round in 2021, is now 5-4 at SW19.

World No. 76 Thompson was aiming to advance to the third round for the second time, having reached that stage 12 months ago. Earlier this month, he captured the ATP Challenger Tour title in Surbiton, while he reached the championship match at Nottingham.