Could Medvedev’s Clay Level Be Rivaling His Hard-Court Performance?

Daniil Medvedev has made no secret about his surface preference. The 27-year-old likes hard courts the most and it is not particularly close.

But entering Roland Garros, he is enjoying more success than ever on clay. Seeded second in Paris, Medvedev is fresh off winning a clay-court ATP Masters 1000 title in Rome, where he had never previously won a match.

“Friendship. I don’t think I love it,” Medvedev said after defeating Holger Rune in the final, cracking a laugh. “I love hard courts, my only love in tennis. But I definitely like clay courts much more now.”

According to Insights provided by Tennis Data Innovations, Medvedev’s performance on clay this year has been close to his level on his beloved hard courts.

Medvedev Insights: Hard vs Clay

Medvedev crafted a jaw-dropping stretch of tennis when he won titles in Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai, reached the final in Indian Wells and then lifted the trophy in Miami. Unsurprisingly, those are hard-court tournaments.

But his performance metrics on clay in Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome closely rivaled his efforts during that red-hot streak earlier in the year. Could Medvedev the hard-court savant be harnessing his game on the dirt?

The numbers indicate he is coming close. Medvedev’s forehand shot quality, which analyses the shot’s speed, spin, depth, width and the impact it has on the opponent, was 8.2 across the aforementioned hard-court tournaments. At the three clay-court Masters 1000 events, it was close behind at 8.

The ATP Tour average is 7.2. Medvedev actually made a higher percentage of forehands in the court on clay without any dropoff in speed and minimal change in spin.

Medvedev Forehand Insights: Hard vs Clay

Medvedev’s conversion score, which measures the percentage of points won when a player is in attack, was the same at 71 per cent. His steal score, which calculates percentage of points won in defence, was 40 per cent, just behind his 42 per cent at the five hard-court tournaments.

The 27-year-old’s steal score in Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome was the best on Tour. Not bad for a player who has often said he hates the surface. 

Medvedev won 57 per cent of his baseline points during the clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments, which also led the Tour, with Rune in second.

Most people do not consider Medvedev a clay-court threat, but the numbers show he should be.

The second seed will begin his run at Roland Garros on Tuesday against qualifier Thiago Seyboth Wild.