Del Potro Shows He's The Ultimate Game Closer In Tennis
Del Potro Shows He’s The Ultimate Game Closer In Tennis
Is tennis really a race to 40?
Consider the following metrics at the elite level of our sport. If a Top 10 player is the first to reach the point score of 40 when serving or receiving – no matter how many points the opponent has – they are on average favoured to win the game.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the start of the 2015 season to this week identifies that being first to 40 is almost a lock to hold when serving, and makes the returner a statistical favourite when returning.
The only exception to that rule was John Isner and Kevin Anderson returning with the point score at 30/40. For all other Top 10 players, they were the favourite when returning if they got to 40 first whether serving or receiving.
Current Top 10: Percentage Chance of Winning The Game Being First to 40
(Leader in each point score in Bold)
|
Ranking |
Player |
40/0 |
40/15 |
40/30 |
0/40* |
15/40* |
30/40* |
|
1 |
Rafael Nadal |
99.5% |
98.2% |
93.1% |
87.5% |
81.0% |
66.6% |
|
2 |
Roger Federer |
99.7% |
98.5% |
95.2% |
75.3% |
69.1% |
55.5% |
|
3 |
Novak Djokovic |
99.1% |
97.6% |
93.2% |
83.8% |
76.7% |
61.7% |
|
4 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
99.8% |
98.5% |
93.8% |
87.6% |
75.8% |
56.3% |
|
5 |
Alexander Zverev |
98.7% |
97.1% |
92.3% |
84.6% |
75.1% |
61.8% |
|
6 |
Marin Cilic |
99.8% |
98.9% |
94.6% |
80.8% |
65.4% |
52.0% |
|
7 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
99.2% |
97.4% |
91.7% |
76.9% |
72.8% |
52.4% |
|
8 |
Dominic Thiem |
99.1% |
97.5% |
92.0% |
78.9% |
68.4% |
54.6% |
|
9 |
Kevin Anderson |
99.4% |
97.8% |
93.7% |
68.9% |
65.5% |
49.2% |
|
10 |
John Isner |
99.8% |
99.0% |
97.1% |
57.1% |
56.8% |
41.3% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
99.4% |
98.1% |
93.7% |
78.1% |
70.7% |
55.1% |
*Top 10 player is returning
What’s fascinating is that Juan Martin del Potro was the peak performer (tied with Marin Cilic) holding serve at 40/0, at 99.8 per cent, and was also the leader breaking serve from 0/40 when returning, at 87.6 per cent.
John Isner led the Top 10 holding from 40/15 (98.1 per cent) and 40/30 (93.7 per cent), while Rafael Nadal led the way breaking from 15/40 (81 per cent) and 30/40 (66.6 per cent).
Read More: How Quickly Federer, The Top 10 Race Through Their Service Games
The data also presents an interesting proposition to consider…
You play a practice set where you always start at 40/30 on your own service games, and your opponent must always start serving in a 0/40 hole in their service games. Statistically, which one is better for you?
It turns out that serving at 40/30 for the Top 10 is far superior, as they average holding 93.7 per cent of the time, while breaking 78.1 per cent of the time when returning at 0/40.
Getting to the point score of 40 gets you to within one point of winning the game. Now we have some percentages at the elite level of our sport to know exactly how close they really are to taking the next step and winning it.