Does this blended stat make Zverev the game's most effective server?
First-serve statistics have always been split into two categories. Would it provide greater clarity to blend first-serves made and first-serves won into one match metric called first-serve rating?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the two traditional first-serve statistics identifies that they tell a good story in their own right, but an improved narrative emerges once they are blended as one. A breakdown of the current Top 10 over the past 52 weeks sheds light on what a Serve Rating actually looks like.
Alexander Zverev is the peak performer with first-serves made over the past 52 weeks at an astonishing 72.4 per cent. He is about six percentage points clear of his closest rival Carlos Alcaraz (66.6 per cent), and well clear of the Top 10 average of 63.8 per cent. Zverev is on a first-serve planet all on his own.
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| Top 10 Player | In % | Win % | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Zverev | 72.4 | 75.2 | 54.4 |
| H. Hurkacz | 63.9 | 78.5 | 50.2 |
| N. Djokovic | 64.4 | 76.2 | 49.1 |
| G. Dimitrov | 62.7 | 78.1 | 49.0 |
| J. Sinner | 62.1 | 78.3 | 48.6 |
| C. Alcaraz | 66.6 | 71.9 | 47.9 |
| A. Rublev | 62.5 | 76.0 | 47.5 |
| C. Ruud | 65.0 | 72.6 | 47.2 |
| D. Medvedev | 62.9 | 74.0 | 46.5 |
| A. De Minaur | 55.2 | 72.7 | 40.1 |
| AVERAGE | 63.8 | 75.4 | 48.1 |
But Zverev only comes in sixth place in the data set when you examine points won behind his first serve, at 75.2 per cent. Hubert Hurkacz, at 78.5 per cent, was the leader in this specific category. Also ahead of Zverev were Jannik Sinner (78.3 per cent), Grigor Dimitrov (78.1 per cent), Novak Djokovic (76.2 per cent) and Andrey Rublev (76.0 per cent).
It’s impossible to figure out if Zverev is genuinely the best performer behind his first serve, from first place with first-serves made to just sixth place with first-serves won. That’s where the value of a Serve Rating comes to life.
Here’s how it works. You start by taking the first-serve made percentage and turn it into a whole number (72% to 72). You then take the first-serve won percentage and turn it into a decimal (75% to 0.75), and then multiply the two to get a rating out of 100.
Zverev’s First-Serve Rating
• 72.4% made / 75.2% won
• First-Serve Rating: 72.4 (made) x 0.752 (won) = 54.4
Hurkacz’s First-Serve Rating
• 63.9% made / 78.5% won
•First-Serve Rating: 63.9 (made) x 0.785 (won) = 50.2
Simple math blends two statistics that have always been evaluated separately and turns them into a new match metric that provides more precise insight into the specifics of player performance.
Zverev emerges as the peak performer in the Top 10 with his first serve over the past 52 weeks with a 54.4 rating. Hurkacz (50.2) was the only other player to clear the benchmark of 50, while Djokovic (49.1), Dimitrov (49.0), and Sinner (48.6) were all above the Top 10 average of 48.1.
The beauty of a first-serve rating is that it includes four outcomes of the first serve:
•1st-Serves In
•1st-Serve Faults
•Won the point
•Lost the point
A serve rating also provides valuable insight for players looking for specific areas to take their game to the next level. For example, Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev were the only Top 10 players to appear below the average with first-serves made and first-serves won. Improving their first-serve rating to the Top 10 average of 48.1 would be an obvious goal. Getting more in and winning more will both move the needle in the right direction.
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