Conventional wisdom says that the serve is the most important shot in tennis. The more astute tennis fan knows that quite the opposite is true.

After crunching the numbers from more than 60 tournaments on the ATP World Tour in 2015, Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows that the return of serve is what really counts.

In 2015, none of the Top 3 players in the Service Games Won category made it to the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London. Yet the Top 4 players on the list of Return Games won – David Ferrer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray – all made it to The O2.

Ferrer, who won five titles in 2015, topped the list by winning 35 percent of services games in 2015, followed by Djokovic with 34 and Nadal and Murray, both at 31 percent. Two others players in the Top 10 of this category also made it to The O2: Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori, who won 27 percent of their return games in 2015.

Looking at the Service Games won leaders of 2015, ace king Ivo Karlovic stood as tall as his 6’ 11’ frame by holding 96 out of every 100 services games in a season in which he also fired 1,447 aces. That put him tantalisingly close to Goran Ivanisevic’s season-record of 1477 in 1996.

Second was Canada’s Milos Raonic, who won 94 percent of his service games, while American John Isner, who fired 1,260 aces this year, held 93 percent of service games. But only Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic (who were among the best returners of the year), were the only members of the Top 5 list of service games won to make it to London.              

On a more granular level, the percentage of points won on serve and against serve also supports the argument that good returning trumps great serving.

Six of the Top 7 players on the list of Points Won Returning Second Serve qualified for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals: Novak Djokovic topped the list, winning 57 percent of all second-serve return points, followed by Andy Murray and David Ferrer on 56 percent, Tomas Berdych on 55 percent. Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori were tied for sixth with 53 percent.

Ferrer, Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Federer also occupied the top five places on the list of Points Won Returning 1^st Serves. In contrast, Federer and Berdych were the only London qualifiers among the year’s Top 10 list for Most Points Won On First Serve.  

The importance of winning points on second serves was a slightly different story. Novak Djokovic led that list with a 60% success rate. Roger Federer finished 3^rd with 58 percent. Further back was Stan Wawrinka in eighth, Rafael Nadal in ninth and Tomas Berdych in 10th spot.

But success winning points returning second serves still proved to be even more important, with six of the top seven places on the list all being occupied by London qualifiers, led by Djokovic, who won 57 percent of points when returning second serves.