Infosys Beyond The Numbers: #NextGenATP Serving Under Pressure
Infosys Beyond The Numbers: #NextGenATP Serving Under Pressure
Deuce is normally a comfort zone for the server, where they hold around three out of every four visits to this extended-point score. Not so at the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan this week. The new event is trialing several exciting innovations, including playing a sudden death point at deuce where the winner takes all.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the eight #NextGenATP players in the 2017 season has identified that this new scoring system will lead to more exciting pressure moments in the match, and the potential for more breaks of serve as a result.
The following table identifies the percentage chances for all eight players holding serve from deuce in 2017, and also from 30/40, where they are staring down break point. The new sudden death point will behave differently to 30/40, as both players will simultaneously hold game point, but it is a good guide as to how this new scoring system will play out.
2017 Season: Holding from deuce & 30/40
|
Ranking |
Player |
Holding from Deuce |
Holding from 30/40 |
|
37 |
Andrey Rublev |
65% (70/107) |
42% (36/86) |
|
45 |
Karen Khachanov |
75% (113/151) |
40% (51/129) |
|
51 |
Denis Shapovalov |
83% (39/47) |
55% (23/42) |
|
54 |
Hyeon Chung |
79% (93/118) |
48% (48/100) |
|
48 |
Borna Coric |
76% (109/144) |
55% (58/106) |
|
55 |
Jared Donaldson |
66% (83/125) |
38% (40/104) |
|
65 |
Daniil Medvedev |
72% (99/137) |
41% (49/119) |
|
306 |
Gianluigi Quinzi |
91% (10/11) |
73% (8/11) |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
73% (616/840) |
45% (313/697) |
The hold percentage for the new sudden death point will probably sit somewhere in between the 73 per cent average holding at deuce, and the 45 per cent average holding at 30/40.
One thing is for certain – starting the sudden death point with a first serve will give the server a considerable advantage. The following table shows how well the eight players are doing in the 2017 season saving break points behind a first or second serve.
2017 Season: Saving Break Points Behind 1st & 2nd Serves
|
Ranking |
Player |
Holding Behind 1st Serve |
Holding behind 2nd serve |
|
37 |
Andrey Rublev |
72% (114/159) |
42% (44/105) |
|
45 |
Karen Khachanov |
75% (135/181) |
42% (60/142) |
|
51 |
Denis Shapovalov |
83% (45/54) |
44% (23/52) |
|
54 |
Hyeon Chung |
75% (100/133) |
44% (53/121) |
|
48 |
Borna Coric |
76% (144/190) |
52% (53/101) |
|
55 |
Jared Donaldson |
71% (118/166) |
48% (61/128) |
|
65 |
Daniil Medvedev |
75% (139/185) |
53% (76/143) |
|
306 |
Gianluigi Quinzi |
82% (14/17) |
71% (10/14) |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
75% (809/1085) |
47% (380/806) |
Canadian Denis Shapovalov has been the best performer this season at saving break points behind a first serve, at 83 per cent (45/54). But he falls below the #NextGenATP average of 47 per cent saving break points behind second serves, at 44 per cent (23/52).
The sudden death point is a staple on the ATP World Tour in doubles, and it brings more excitement to the end of a game with both players holding game point simultaneously. It will be fascinating to see how it plays out in Milan this week on the singles court with the best young talents in our sport.