Angelique Kerber’s 2016 has been about countering the narrative. In fact, let’s expand that. Her last two seasons have been about proving the conventional wisdom wrong. After a frustrating 2014 season, which saw her go titleless despite making four Premier finals, the German rebounded in 2015 to win four Premier titles and finish the year at No.10.

But her results at the Slams waned last season. She never got past the third round at any of the four majors and completely choked under the pressure at the BNP Paribas WTA Finals Singapore presented by SC Global, falling one set short of advancing to the semifinals. Going into 2016 it was easy to discount Kerber as a hard-working, talented player, who just didn’t have the fortitude to win the big titles.

Then she proceeded to win the one Slam at which she had historically posted her worst results, beating the hottest player at the time in Victoria Azarenka and World No.1 and defending champion Serena Williams to win the Australian Open.

AmazingWeek?so nice to win at home again#PTGP @PorscheTennis Special thanks to all my fan#TeamAngie#selfie @porsche pic.twitter.com/C1XFArcUMb

— Angelique Kerber (@AngeliqueKerber) April 25, 2016

Kerber will be seeded No.3 at the French Open next week. Paris has proved a perplexing place for the 28-year-old. She has made it past the fourth round just once, stalling in the fourth round in two of the last three years. A closer look at her recent losses in Paris reveal they really weren’t bad ones, losing to Garbiñe Muguruza (2015), Eugenie Bouchard (2014), and Svetlana Kuznetsova (2013).

With nine titles under her belt, Kerber has proven she can win on any surface. Indoors, outdoors, grass, clay, or hard court, she has a title on each. Last month she successfully defended her title at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. That title came on the heels of back-to-back wins in Fed Cup over two of the best clay courters right now, in Simona Halep and Irina-Camelia Begu. A week before that came a semifinal run in Charleston, which ended in her retirement due to illness. In our Clay Court Power Rankings only she and Serena Williams were able to match their ranking on clay with their overall ranking. In other words, Kerber is as good on clay as she is on all other surfaces.

The question is whether Kerber goes into Paris with the confidence of the woman who made the Miami semifinals, Charleston semifinals, and won Stuttgart, or the confidence of the woman who lost both her opening matches at the Mutua Madrid Open (l. Strycova) and Internazionali BNL d’Italia (l. Bouchard) in her lead-up. In Rome she told her coach Torben Beltz during an on-court coaching timeout that she couldn’t find any rhythm, and hinted that their practices that week had not gone well. Perhaps the early exit from Rome gave her extra time to fix what’s been going wrong.

.@AngeliqueKerber ???☺️???? pic.twitter.com/blUriTcedD

— Mutua Madrid Open (@MutuaMadridOpen) April 29, 2016

One key to assessing Kerber’s chances in Paris are the conditions. Warm, fast conditions will play into her strengths as she’ll be able to inject extra power and get her shots through the court. Slow, wet conditions will slow down her ball – especially her serve – and she’ll be caught on defense far too often.

But if she gets a good draw that allows her to earn easy wins through the first week, a confident Kerber can do damage at the French Open. Serena Williams is the favorite in Paris, no doubt. Then again, she was the favorite in Melbourne, too. And we all saw how that turned out.

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