It’s a set all and you are about to play the deciding third set. Would you rather be the player who won the first set or the second?

Tennis folklore often talks about the first few games of the second set being the most critical in a three-set match, as breaking serve at this specific juncture provides a springboard to capture set two and steam into the deciding set holding the momentum. We may have just found statistical evidence to support this time-honoured tennis theory.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of three-set matches on the ATP Tour identifies that the winner of the second set is more likely to win the third set. Japanese star Kei Nishikori leads the pack, winning an impressive 76.5 per cent (65/85) of matches throughout his career when he has split sets after dropping the opening set and rebounded to win set two.

The data set is comprised of 166 players who have played a minimum of 50 three-set matches in either category since 1991, when official statistics in tennis were first recorded.

1991-2020 Tour Averages

•Winner of Set 2 wins the match = 57.2% (7844/13708)
•Winner of Set 1 wins the match = 52.1% (6870/13182)

Nishikori was the only player in the data set to win greater than three out of four matches after winning set two in a three-set encounter. The leading 10 players winning the third set after capturing the second set are:

1. Kei Nishikori = 76.5% (65/85)
2. Rafael Nadal = 74.3% (75/101)
3. Stefan Edberg = 72.0% (36/50)
4. Lleyton Hewitt = 71.3% (87/122)
5. Pete Sampras = 71.3% (62/87)
6. Andy Murray = 71.2% (74/104)
7. Novak Djokovic = 71.0% (76/107)
8. Yevgeny Kafelnikov = 70.4% (88/126)
9. Andy Roddick = 70.1% (54/77)
10. Stefan Koubek = 70% (35/50)

Players generally fell into three sub-sets:

1. Those who carried the momentum of winning set two into the third set
2. Those who successfully fought back after dropping the second set
3. Players who performed about the same after winning set one or set two

Nishikori fell into the last group, as he also finished fourth best winning the match after winning set one but dropping set two. The leading 10 players winning the third set after capturing the first set are:

1. Novak Djokovic = 76.0% (73/96)
2. Thomas Muster = 73.1% (57/78)
3. Juan Martin del Potro = 70.5% (43/61)
4. Kei Nishikori = 69.2% (45/65)
5. Andy Murray = 67.4% (60/89)
6. Andy Roddick = 67.0% (61/91)
7. Roger Federer = 66.7% (110/165)
8. Pete Sampras = 66.7% (62/93)
9. Michael Chang = 65.1% (69/106)
10. Tommy Haas = 64.2% (77/120)

Former World No. 4 James Blake was a player who performed much better winning the match after capturing set two.

•Blake winning Set 2 & winning the match = 57% (58/102)
•Blake winning Set 1 & winning the match = 45.8% (38/83)

Former World No. 1 Andre Agassi didn’t have a preference of which set he won as he marched to a three-set victory.

•Agassi winning Set 2 & winning the match = 63.2% (48/76)
•Agassi winning Set 1 & winning the match = 63.1% (53/84)

Juan Monaco, who reached a career high of No. 10 in 2012, performed significantly better winning the opening set and then losing the second set as he navigated his way to a three-set victory.

•Monaco winning Set 1 & winning the match = 57.3% (55/96)
•Monaco winning Set 2 & winning the match = 45.3% (34/75)

The three-set journey to victory can travel along different roads, but if you drop the first set and get an early break in the second set, you have got to feel good about the pathway you are on.

The NOVENTI OPEN has been played since 1993, when Henri Leconte captured the title. One of eight grass-court tournaments held during the season, the Halle event was made an ATP 500 in 2015.

The 2020 edition of the tournament would have been held this week, if not for the Tour suspension due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

ATPTour.com looks at five things to know about the tournament.

1) 10 For Roger
Roger Federer has won a record 19 grass-court titles in the Open Era, with 10 coming at the NOVENTI OPEN. The Swiss has lifted more trophies in Halle than at any other event except the Swiss Indoors Basel, where he has also triumphed 10 times.

A 21-year-old Federer won his first grass-court title in Halle in 2003, claiming his first Grand Slam crown at Wimbledon just weeks later. He owns the record for most wins at the tournament with 68, and last year he set the record for oldest tournament champion, triumphing as a 37-year-old.

“It’s amazing. For some reason I didn’t think I was going to make it anymore,” Federer said last year. “[It’s the] first time ever I could win a title 10 times in one place, so it’s obviously a very special moment in my career.”

Roger Federer celebrates his 10th Halle trophy” width=”100%” src=”https://www.atptour.com/-/media/images/news/2019/06/23/13/56/federer-halle-2019-trophy.jpg” />

2) Roger-Federer-Allee
Officials in Halle paid tribute to Federer in 2012 by naming a street, Roger-Federer-Allee, in his honour. The road leads to the tournament’s centre court, OWL ARENA.

Federer said it was “an amazing honour” and that he was “extremely humbled”.

3) Borna’s Breakthrough
Borna Coric arrived in Halle in 2018 with just two tour-level grass-court wins. But the Croatian played his best tennis to claim the biggest title of his career.

“[I am] just really surprised,” Coric said. “I had not even dreamed of this.”

Coric defeated World No. 3 Alexander Zverev in the first round and World No. 1 Federer in the final. The Swiss was pursuing his 10th Halle crown, but Coric upset the top seed 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-2.

“It is the most unbelievable feeling, [to beat Federer],” said Coric. “I looked up to him when I was younger, watching his matches back at home with my mum, my dad and my sister. Just playing him here today was a very special moment and beating him just makes it even bigger for me.”

4) German History
Six Germans have triumphed on home soil in Halle, with former World No. 2 Tommy Haas winning the title twice. Haas’ two triumphs in front of his home fans came against legendary opponents. In 2009, he defeated Novak Djokovic in the final, and in 2012 he beat Federer for the trophy.

The other German winners in Halle are Michael Stich (1994), Nicolas Kiefer (1999), David Prinosil (2000), Philipp Kohlschreiber (2011) and Florian Mayer (2016).

There have been two all-German finals in the event’s 27-year history: Mayer facing Zverev in 2016 and Kohlschreiber defeating Philipp Petzschner in 2011.

5) Karlovic’s Record
In 2015, Ivo Karlovic hit 45 aces in his Halle quarter-final win against Tomas Berdych, setting a record for the most aces in an ATP Tour match that still stands today.

“I’m extremely happy about the record,” Karlovic said. “Hitting aces helps a lot, you can avoid the volleys. I was surprised when I was told on court after the match how many aces I hit. I didn’t know it was that many.”

Karlovic holds the record for most career aces with 13,599. The only other players to crack the 10,000-ace mark are John Isner (12,266), Federer (11,365) and Goran Ivanisevic (10,131).

”Sports have always been a very powerful tool for social change.”

The tenth episode of Tennis United features a powerful discussion between James Blake and Martina Navratilova about equality in tennis.

“Younger people are starting to lead the way… about having inclusivity and being together and Tennis United is a great platform for that. With so many young players on Tour, they are the ones who are so much more open-minded and you’re not dealing with the status quo,” Blake said. “So many barriers got shattered and I feel like at times it was cracks, cracks, cracks and then shattered by people like Martina, by people like Serena and Venus, by Arthur Ashe, by Althea Gibson.”

Former WTA World No. 1 Navratilova has long championed equal rights, and she is happy with progress that has been made in the sport in recent years.

“It’s just gradually come to where gay people come out, and less and less attention is being paid to that. This is what the whole idea was,” Navratilova said. “I was marching so that one day we don’t have to march at all. We’re still marching, but it’s so nice to have those steps forward where people don’t care.”

Also in this episode, 1996 Wimbledon finalist MaliVai Washington chats about the work his MaliVai Washington Youth Foundation does in Florida. The foundation utilises tennis, daily homework help and a life skills curriculum to engage local youth.

Gustavo Kuerten and Mary Pierce also join the show to share memories of their love affair with Roland Garros. Kuerten lifted the Coupe des Mousquetaires on three occasions, while Pierce emerged victorious in 2000.

“You’re not my tennis coach!”

I live in Paris with my wife, Carine, and our sons, Timothée and Valentin. But when everything started to close because of the coronavirus pandemic, we decided to self-isolate in southern France. The house we stayed at has a tennis court in the backyard, so there was a lot of tennis with the kids. My older son, Timothée, who is 10, likes to remind me that I’m not actually his coach when I tell him something on the court!

That’s how he’s been from the start, so I never got involved with his tennis much. But sometimes he’s happy to play with me because he remembers that I’m a tennis player and thinks maybe I actually know something!

We don’t spend a lot of time at home as tennis players, so unfortunately I’ve missed a lot of things with my kids. Sometimes you leave for a tournament and they are crawling. When you come back, they are walking! You feel like, ‘Oh no, I missed something there.’ But I knew that was the case from the start. When Timothée is 15, I will be 40, so I’ll still be able to do many things with him. I’m 35 now and still competing, so if I waited until the end of my career to start a family, it would’ve been too late.

During normal time, when I am home for a week off, I really want to focus on things with my kids. But unfortunately, at some point, I have to leave to travel again. That’s what has been so nice about these months. It’s been great to have all this time so I could really work on some things that I wanted to help with, like school for the big one and other things for the little one.

I’ve actually been a teacher more than anything else during the ATP Tour’s suspension. At the beginning it was difficult balancing everything, from helping with school to playing tennis with the kids and handling everything else. But as time went on, it got really good and was a lot of fun. I think it was easier for Timothée to accept that I was teaching him something, because he had no other choice! In general, I try to stay away from their tennis. I watch everything, but I never say anything. I’m always in the background.

It’s funny, but it was not so good on the court by the end for Timothée. He was ready to play with someone else! Even so, I was happy to have the chance to spend a lot of time with him. Now, our club just began opening up, so I was able to bring my kids for their first lesson since the coronavirus started spreading. They are happy — they are not stuck with their father as their coach!

I haven’t played much myself even with the court in our backyard. I’m the kind of person who needs to know when I’m going to start again to make preparations. I’m not young anymore. It’s not like I can go and practise full-on for four months. I just can’t do it. If I did start like that, I’d be dead and get injured.

My idea was to rest and to try to stay healthy and in good shape and then to have two months to prepare when tournaments begin. I just started two weeks ago very slowly and I’m trying to practise again and I’m going to go more and more.

When the tour resumes, I won’t worry about any specific results. I’m 35, and to me the results are not the most important thing anymore. The main goal is to be happy on the court. I would like to take even more pleasure during the matches. I like to play tennis, I like to practise. This is the sport I will love forever. I often say I might be the person who loves tennis more than anybody. I can watch it at all levels, and I believe everything about the sport is interesting. The only problem is when I play matches.

I have the will to perform as best I can to achieve good things, and sometimes because of that stress and the pressure to play well, the pleasure sometimes disappears. I have too many thoughts of, ‘Hey I want to win. I want to accomplish this, I want to do that.’ I would like to spend more time in the match enjoying what I’m doing.

This is the time in my life when I’m super good at tennis, and that’s a great thing. I need to try to forget the rest. That’s the last goal I have on the tennis court. The results will come, or they will not. But I’m pretty confident if I do things the right way I will have great results. If I don’t, it will almost be the end of my career. Maybe I’ll say, ‘I’ve suffered enough.’

– as told to Andrew Eichenholz

One of Tommy Haas’ most memorable wins was his last victory.

The former World No. 2 was 39 when he competed at the 2017 MercedesCup in Stuttgart. Haas had undergone his ninth surgery the previous April and he entered the tournament searching for form during his final season. The German had not won back-to-back matches since 2014 Rome.

After winning his first-round match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Haas knew he faced a tough challenge in the second round against Roger Federer. The Swiss had won 12 of their past 13 ATP Head2Head meetings.

But Haas found some of the magic that helped him win 15 ATP Tour titles, saving a match point to stun the top-seeded Federer 2-6, 7-6(8), 6-4.

“I’m a little bit speechless that I beat him today,” Haas said. “It’s been a while since I have won back-to-back matches and to do it today against Roger is obviously one of my career highlights. It’s a very special feeling.”

Federer won nine more points than his friend, 105 to 96. Haas withstood 23 aces from the Swiss and saved nine of 12 break points to advance to the quarter-finals. At 7/8 in the second-set tie-break, Haas had to deliver a second serve, but Federer did not convert his match point, lifting a backhand long.

“Tommy definitely played well when he had to,” Federer said.

Haas, who tore a ligament in his right foot the previous year, worked hard for moments like this. The veteran didn’t win a title by shocking Federer, but the German created a memory he’ll never forget.

“This is my last phase, so the emotions are different from what they would have been a few years ago,” Haas said. “I was happy to be out there in front of a German crowd playing against a friend, an idol, a legend, the greatest ever. It’s fantastic.”

That proved to be the German’s final victory. Haas lost in the quarter-finals against Mischa Zverev, and also dropped his next five matches after that. He competed for the final time in Kitzbühel at the Generali Open.

Did You Know?
The only other player to defeat Federer for his final tour-level win was James Sekulov at 2000 Indianapolis.

– With assistance from Joshua Rey

Hey Kids!

We know that you have been missing the on-court action during the suspension of the tennis tour.

We hope to be back on court soon. In the meantime, you can still connect in a small way with the iconic cities that host famous tennis events by downloading the cityscapes and colouring them in.

Download Colouring Sheets (PDF)

Did you see our first colouring activity?

Don’t forget to check out all the great activities in the Emirates ATP Kids Hub

It’s not often that you save a match point and go on to win the match. It’s more rare to do that and go on to capture the title, but that’s exactly what Lucas Pouille did at the 2017 MercedesCup.

Home favourite Jan-Lennard Struff served at 8/7 in the final-set tie-break of their second-round match in Stuttgart. During the point, the Frenchman tracked down a brilliant drop shot and then flicked back two reflex volleys. He was so close to the net that he had to be careful not to run into it. Pouille hit a clean winner on his second volley, sending the crowd into a frenzy.

Pouille used that momentum to power through the next two points and prevail 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(8). The fourth seed then defeated Philipp Kohlschreiber, Benoit Paire and Feliciano Lopez to win his second of three titles that season.

Twelve tour-level titlists saved at least one match point en route to lifting a trophy in 2017. Pouille fell on the other side of the equation that season, too, as Rafael Nadal saved two match points against the Frenchman in the first round of the China Open before emerging from the ATP 500 victorious.