You look to the other side of the net and the No. 1 player in the FedEx ATP Rankings is standing there. It’s Novak. It’s Rafa. It’s Roger. It’s Andy, and it’s specifically when they are sitting at the pinnacle of our sport.

It’s equal parts trepidation and opportunity. How much better is this quartet in full flight
compared to other ATP Tour opponents? How much do you need to raise your level to defeat the No. 1 player in the world?

You better bring your A+ game.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of matches including the top-ranked player from the beginning of the 2015 season, compared to the rest of the Tour, identifies the elevated level of excellence required to capture victory against a reigning No. 1.

The “rest of the Tour” grouping is comprised of players who have played a minimum of 50 tour-level matches from the beginning of 2015 until the week of 16 March 2020, when the rankings were frozen due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is specifically focused on matches against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray only while they were ranked No. 1. Below is how many weeks each player has been ranked No. 1 since the beginning of January 2015.

Weeks At No. 1 Since January 2015 (272 weeks)
Novak Djokovic = 155 weeks
Rafael Nadal = 68 weeks
Andy Murray = 41 weeks
Roger Federer = 8 weeks

Serving
Against the rest of the Tour, you’re still the favourite if you find yourself serving at 15/30, holding serve on average 58 per cent of the time. But against the World No. 1, you’re now the underdog and likely to hold just 45 per cent of the time. Falling just a little behind in your service game against a reigning No. 1 has dire consequences. Nadal was the toughest competitor of the Big Four to hold against at 15/30, at just 43 per cent.

The following table includes five serve and five return metrics, as well as the specific situation of breaking immediately after being broken.

2015-2020 Comparison: Metrics vs. No. 1 Compared To “Rest Of The Tour”

You would think that losing the initial point when serving and moving to 0/15 is not such a big deal, but the percentages of holding significantly drop from around two out of three times (65%) to slightly more than half (52%). And if you were playing against Murray in one of the 41 weeks that the Brit was No. 1, it dropped even lower to 45.1 per cent (65/144).

What will stop you in your tracks is the confluence of the following three factors coming together when facing Murray:

1. Playing Murray while he was ranked No. 1
2. Falling behind 0/15 when serving
3. Playing the match on a hard court

The hold percentage for the server from 0/15 was only 41.5 per cent (22/53) with all three of these metrics in play.

Returning
Winning the first point when returning and moving the scoreboard to 0/15 is an ideal initial step to breaking serve against any opponent. Against the rest of the Tour, you break 38 per cent of the time. But against a current No. 1 player, that plummets down to just 25 per cent. Against Djokovic, it dropped even further down to 23 per cent (155/673).

Federer fought back most often when serving at 15/30 compared to the other No. 1 players. The rest of the Tour posted an average of 45 per cent, but breaking against a No. 1 dropped to 34 per cent. Against Federer, it moved all the way down to 27.8 per cent (5/18).

Breaking back immediately after being broken happened one out of every five times (20%) against the rest of the Tour. That only happened 14 per cent of the time against a top-ranked player and only occurred 10.3 per cent (27/261) of the time against Nadal.

Defeating any player on Tour is an outstanding accomplishment. Being victorious over a World No. 1 requires tapping into a level you may not know that you had.

The Nitto ATP Finals will anchor the final six-week stretch of the 2020 ATP Tour season following the release of a revised provisional calendar today. The 50th anniversary edition of the ATP’s season-ending finale, featuring the best eight singles players and doubles teams will take place from the 15-22 November.

TICKETING POLICY
In line with existing UK Government guidance, the ATP currently plans to hold the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals behind closed doors due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Fans who have already purchased tickets or hospitality to the event through the tournament’s official partners will receive full refunds. AXS, the Official Ticketing Partner of the Nitto ATP Finals, and MATCH Hospitality, the Official Corporate Hospitality Partner, will be in touch with all customers directly.

However, ATP remains hopeful that later this year fans will be allowed to return into stadia in a socially distanced manner, following a series of pilot events being undertaken in the UK. If this is confirmed ahead of the Nitto ATP Finals, the intention is to reopen ticket sales for the tournament, in which case more details will be announced in due course.

“The fans have played such an incredible part in the success of the Nitto ATP Finals over the years and there’s no question the capacity crowds will be deeply missed this year,” said Andrea Gaudenzi, ATP Chairman. “Working within the guidelines issued by the UK Government is paramount as we look to prioritise the health and safety of the fans and everybody involved in the tournament in our efforts to deliver the event in the safest way possible.”

PLAYER QUALIFICATIONS
While the finale will take on a new look this year, three familiar faces are already assured of their places at the season finale, with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem today announced as the first players to qualify. The players are guaranteed to be in the Top 8 of the FedEx ATP Rankings which, due to the impact of COVID-19, incorporate results since March 2019.

World No. 1 Djokovic built an unbeaten 18-0 start before the 2020 ATP Tour season was suspended due to the pandemic, winning his eighth Australian Open and leading Serbia to victory at the inaugural ATP Cup. The Serb has qualified for the season finale on 13 occasions, winning the trophy five times (2008, ’12, ’13, ’14, ’15). Djokovic will be bidding to match Roger Federer’s record haul of six season-ending titles.

Nadal, a finalist in London in 2010 and 2013, has qualified for the 16th consecutive year. The Spaniard owns a 13-3 record in 2020, highlighted by his title run at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC in Acapulco. He also led Team Spain to the ATP Cup final in Sydney.

Thiem will make his fifth straight appearance at the season finale. The Austrian achieved his best result at the event last year, when he reached the final, losing in a third-set tie-break to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Thiem has won nine of the 13 matches he has contested in 2020, highlighted by his run to the Australian Open final in January (l. to Djokovic).

Australian Open doubles champions Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury are the first doubles team to qualify. The US-British duo made its debut in London last year.

The Nitto ATP Finals has been held in London since 2009 and has successfully established itself as one of the major annual sporting events worldwide. The tournament is broadcast in more than 180 territories with global viewership reaching an average of 95 million each year. The event will be held in Turin, Italy, from 2021-2025.

The ATP has issued further updates to the 2020 Tour calendar, setting a provisional schedule for the remainder of the regular season. The revised calendar marks a continuation of the plan to resume the ATP Tour season, following suspension in March due to COVID-19.

Under the updated schedule the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, will now be scheduled one week earlier, in the week previously assigned to the recently cancelled Mutua Madrid Open, and will have a Monday final. The Rome event will be followed by the ATP 500 Hamburg European Open in the week prior to Roland Garros.

The updated schedule includes the final section of the calendar comprising the European indoor swing, including events in St. Petersburg (St. Petersburg Open), Antwerp (European Open), Moscow (VTB Kremlin Cup), Vienna (Erste Bank Open), Paris (Rolex Paris Masters), Sofia (Sofia Open) ahead of the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals in London. Among the changes, the St. Petersburg Open will be elevated to ATP 500 status for its 2020 edition.

Andrea Gaudenzi, ATP Chairman, said: “Tennis is starting to find its way back and, while we must first and foremost look after the health and safety of everyone involved, we are hopeful we will be able to retain these playing opportunities and produce a strong finish to the season. I would like to commend the tournaments for their continued commitment, flexibility and resourcefulness in finding solutions to operate under these challenging circumstances.”

The ATP continues to explore options for additional events to be added to the schedule, including opportunities to issue a limited number of single-year licenses for the remainder of the 2020 season.

The provisional calendar remains subject to change and continued assessments will be made relating to health & safety, international travel policies, and governmental approval of sporting events. All events will be held under strict guidelines related to health & safety, social distancing, reduced or no fans on-site.

The revised calendar also provides confirmation that the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan will not take place in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19.

The 2020 ATP Tour provisional calendar can be found here.

Nicolas Massu, former No. 9 in the FedEx ATP Rankings and the current coach of Dominic Thiem, is optimistic that they can pick up where they left off at the start of this season.

The Chilean is credited with helping Thiem achieve his hard-court breakthrough last year. One month after they began working together, Thiem captured his maiden ATP Masters 1000 crown at the BNP Paribas Open (d. Federer) and went on to finish runner-up at the Nitto ATP Finals (l. to Tsitsipas). He opened up this year in equally impressive fashion by reaching his first Australian Open final (l. to Djokovic).

Massu spoke to ATPTour.com about Thiem’s training during the suspension of play due to COVID-19 and why he thinks the Austrian is a title contender when action resumes this month at the Western & Southern Open and US Open.

How much did you and Dominic interact during the suspension of play?
During the suspension, I was always in communication with Dominic when we needed to be and his father, Wolfgang, always updated me on how they were working. Dominic was staying with his father and practising, and also working with one of his physical trainers who lives in Austria. I’m really happy that Dominic was able to train well with the part of his team that helps him in Austria.

After four months apart, we started working together again for two weeks before I traveled with him to some exhibitions in July. We took two weeks off after that and I spent some of those days in Greece. We started working together again this week.

Even when I was at home under mandatory quarantine in Chile, I had a chance to watch all of his exhibition matches and it’s great that technology is able to permit you to do that. It was entertainment for me and also helpful to be able to talk with Wolfgang about the matches afterwards.

This is the first time that Dominic has gone five months without playing a tournament since turning pro. How do you think that he’ll bounce back from such a long layoff?
The positive thing is that he was playing a lot of exhibition matches, so it’s not like he’s gone six months without any competition. Dominic played 28 matches in 45 days. I know they’re just exhibitions, but they were serious matches and the level from the players was very high.

Of course, it’s not the same thing as tournaments on the ATP Tour. The reason it’s a Grand Slam or an ATP Masters 1000 is because all the best players will be there. But we tried to make him play many matches during this time so he doesn’t feel the impact as much.

It was a good thing for Dominic because he wanted to play matches and loves the competition. I think that will help him in New York. He’s playing well, looks strong and is really focussed. He has even more motivation now because he’s used to a busy calendar with a lot of tournaments in a normal season.

Dominic is known as one of the hardest workers on Tour. How do you find the balance between building his game and making sure he isn’t too tired when tournaments resume?
We talk a lot with the whole team about the practices and even the holidays. He took two weeks off and we started practising again this week. We need to have good communication and plan a nice calendar if we want Dominic to always be motivated in the training.

We’ve been working a lot on the physical side. Normally the pre-season is just three or four weeks at most, but now we’ve had almost six months to focus on this and the tennis.

It’s also going to be interesting to see how all of the players manage some of the things that will be very different on Tour. You can ask me how Dominic will handle not playing a tournament for almost six months, playing without fans, only being at the hotel and tournament site in New York for one month, but it will be the same thing for everyone.

Dominic has had a couple of heartbreaking losses at the US Open with five-set defeats to Del Potro (in 2017) and Nadal (in 2018). What does he need to do to make the next step in New York and reach his first semi-final or take the title?
He’s recently been able to do a lot of things for the first time. He had never passed the fourth round at the Australian Open and was a set away from winning the title this year. Last year, he went to the Nitto ATP Finals having never passed the round-robin stage, but finished just a couple of points away from winning the tournament. His results weren’t that big in Asia, but then he won Beijing and reached the quarter-finals in Shanghai.

He’s one of the players who always has a chance to win when he plays a tournament. He’s No. 3 [in the FedEx ATP Rankings] and in the Top 10 for the past five seasons because his results are very consistent.

Looking slightly ahead to the clay-court season, how do you think he’ll handle the quick turnaround from hard courts to clay courts?
We don’t have to think so much about what will happen because this is something new. The most important thing now is to think about the next step, which is the Western & Southern Open and the US Open.

After that, you have to see how you’re feeling physically and what your results are. He signed up for Kitzbühel, but he can’t play if he’s in the quarter-finals of the US Open. If he plays unbelievably well at Roland Garros, what will his next tournament be after that? It’s so difficult to plan an exact calendar because there are no weeks off. Once the US Open finishes, we’ll sit down with the whole team and decide what the best plan is.

Are there any significant changes in his game that we can expect to see in New York?
We’re trying to improve every day. He’s not a teenager where you might have to make big changes, but he’s still a young guy at age 26 and there are still little changes that we can make. He’s a complete player now and showed that he can play on hard courts. We expect that he can have at least the same results as last year.

But it doesn’t matter your age. As an athlete, you have to go to every practice with the mentality that you can improve something. The same thing applies for me as a coach. That’s why this sport gives you life.

It’s why I decided to continue traveling after my playing career. Working with Dominic is a big motivation for me because he’s a great player and an unbelievable person. He’s really educated, he listens and always gives 100 per cent. It’s unbelievable as a coach because you only need to tell him what you see on the court.

Novak Djokovic will put his unbeaten (18-0) streak in 2020 on the line as he returns to New York this month for the Western & Southern Open and US Open. The latter event will also be held at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center due to COVID-19.

”I am happy to confirm that I will participate at the Western & Southern Open and US Open this year. It was not an easy decision to make with all the obstacles and challenges on many sides, but the prospect of competing again makes me really excited,” Djokovic said in a statement on Thursday. “I am ready to get back on court fully committed to playing my best tennis. I respect and appreciate everyone taking time, effort, and energy to organise these two events for the tennis players to be able to go back to their working field.”

Djokovic prevailed at the 2018 Western & Southern Open (d. Federer) and finished runner-up on five other occasions. He’s also won the US Open three times and holds a 72-11 career record in New York.

“During my career, I have played some of my best matches at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center,” Djokovic said. “I am aware that this time around it will be very different with all the protocols and safety measures that are put in place to protect players and [the] people of New York. Nevertheless, I have trained hard with my team and got my body in shape so [that] I am ready to adapt to new conditions.”

The No. 1 player in the FedEx ATP Rankings enjoyed a perfect start to this year by leading Serbia to the inaugural ATP Cup title (d. Spain), lifting his eighth trophy at the Australian Open (d. Thiem) and winning his fifth crown in Dubai (d. Tsitsipas).

In the latest profile on a series of the 26 players to rise to No. 1 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, ATPTour.com looks back on the career of Patrick Rafter. View Full List

First Week As No. 1: 26 July 1999
Total Weeks at No. 1: 1

As World No. 1
Rafter holds two unique distinctions of being the only player to reach No. 1 in the FedEx ATP Rankings for a single week and the only man to not play a match while holding that position. He took the top spot from Andre Agassi on 26 July 1999, but lost it the following week after Pete Sampras won a tournament in Los Angeles.

“I always joke with the players,” Rafter said. “They say, ‘Congratulations, mate, you made No. 1.’ I say, ‘Yeah, one week.’ They say, ‘At least you bloody got it. At least you can say you got there.’”

Grand Slam Highlights
Rafter’s pair of Grand Slam titles came at the US Open in 1997 (d. Rusedski) and 1998 (d. Philippoussis). The No. 13 seed navigated a treacherous path to the 1997 final that included Andre Agassi and Michael Chang before becoming the first Australian to triumph in New York since John Newcombe (1973). Rafter’s surprise run prompted John McEnroe to label him a “one-slam wonder”, but his successful title defense the following year silenced critics and established him as one of the best hard-court players of his generation.

The Aussie came painfully close to adding a Wimbledon title to his collection, finishing runner-up in 2000 (l. to Sampras) and 2001 (l. to Ivanisevic). Rafter held a pair of set points for a two-sets lead against Sampras, but blinked and allowed the American to charge back. He admitted that the loss sat with him for the next 12 months. Rafter then came within two points of beating Ivanisevic in the 2001 final, but lost the fifth set 7-9 and found it even harder to move past that match.

“For the first five years after that final, I was waking up in a cold sweat in the night, going through the game when I was up 5-4 on his serve with him at 0/30, wishing I’d done this or that,” Rafter told The Tennis Podcast. “When we shook hands it looked like we were best buddies, but I wasn’t happy. I was hurting. I was seething. I don’t think about it often now. A thought or flashback might come in sometimes and I’m very quick to push it aside.”

Rafter’s initial Grand Slam breakthrough came by powering into the 1997 Roland Garros semi-finals as an unseeded player, but it would be the last time he reached the second week in Paris. Although he historically struggled with home expectations at the Australian Open, he put it all together in his final Melbourne appearance by reaching the semi-finals before falling to Agassi in a five-set classic.

The Aussie did triumph at home by winning the 1999 Australian Open men’s doubles title (w/Bjorkman). Rafter is one of only three men in the Open Era, along with Rod Laver and Stefan Edberg, to reach the semi-finals or better at all four Grand Slams in singles and doubles.

Nitto ATP Finals Highlights
Rafter twice competed at the season-ending championships in 1997 and 2001, but was unable to advance out of round-robin play. His final ATP Tour match came at the 2001 Nitto ATP Finals in Sydney, where he lost to fellow Aussie Lleyton Hewitt. The occasion marked the biggest crowd for a tennis match in Sydney since the 1954 Davis Cup final and enabled Hewitt to clinch the No. 1 ranking for the first time in his career.

ATP Masters 1000 Highlights
Both of Rafter’s ATP Masters 1000 singles title came in 1998  at the Rogers Cup (d. Krajicek) and Western & Southern Open (d. Sampras). Rafter stormed through the draw in Toronto without dropping a set and rallied from a set down to beat Sampras in a nervy Cincinnati final.

Rafter finished runner-up in Cincinnati on two other occasions (1999, l. to Sampras; 2001, l. to Kuerten), in addition to a 2001 finalist showing in Montreal (l. to Pavel). He also excelled on clay by reaching the final of the 1999 Internazionali BNL d’Italia, but with the No. 1 ranking on the line, he fell to Gustavo Kuerten in straight sets.

In doubles, Rafter’s partnership with Jonas Bjorkman yielded titles at the 1998 BNP Paribas Open (d. Martin/Reneberg) and 1999 Rogers Cup (d. B. Black/W. Ferreira).

Overall Match Record: 358-191
Overall Titles/Finals Record: 11-14

Rivalries
Rafter and Sampras produced a compelling rivalry throughout the ‘90s and early 2000s that also occasionally sparked off-court drama. Sampras holds a 12-4 record in their ATP Head2Head Series, but their most contentious moments came during the Aussie’s three match winning streak against him.

After Rafter beat Sampras in the 1998 Cincinnati final, ending an eight-match losing streak against his rival, an agitated Sampras responded to a question about the difference between the two players by flatly declaring, “10 Grand Slams.” Rafter used the verbal shot as fuel to beat Sampras weeks later in a five-set semi-final thriller at the US Open before going on to take the title.

Sampras gained revenge by defeating Rafter the following year in the 1999 Cincinnati final. He won the last four matches they contested, including their most high-profile battle in the 2000 Wimbledon final that gave the American his 13th Grand Slam crown, putting him past Roy Emerson as the overall men’s leader in Grand Slam singles titles.

Rafter also shared a prolific rivalry with Agassi (5-10). The pair split their six Grand Slam matches, including three consecutive Wimbledon semi-finals (1999-2001) that saw the Aussie win epic five-set battles in 2000 and 2001.

Memorable Moment
Rafter earned the 1998 Arthur Ashe Humanitarian Award in part due to his incredible displays of generosity after winning his US Open titles. He donated $600,000 of his earnings from the two events to the Brisbane Mater Hospital’s Foundation for Terminally Ill Children. In typical fashion, he made the donation quietly and it wasn’t revealed until his mother shared the news in a radio interview.  

Legacy
Rafter’s aggressive net charging and silky hands made him one of the best volleyers of his era. Despite his stocky build, he possessed outstanding footwork and was able to still quickly get to the net after hours of play.

He excelled on every surface throughout his career in singles and doubles. Although his biggest successes came on hard courts, his serve-and-volley game seamlessly translated to grass and he also enjoyed plenty of memorable wins on clay. Rafter was always a popular player in the locker room due to his humble and friendly nature, exhibited by his habit of saying, “Sorry, mate” whenever he had to catch his service toss.

A beloved figure in Australia, the 5,500-seat centre court at the Queensland Tennis Centre in Brisbane was renamed Pat Rafter Arena in 2008. He won the Stefan Edberg Sportmanship Award four times (1997, 1999-2001) and was also named Australian of the Year in 2002. Rafter was fittingly inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame in 2006. 

Agassi On Rafter
“He’s a great player, a great competitor. I’ve had some great matches with him. They’re always ones to remember. Win or lose, you really cherish the opportunity to raise your level at the right time. The fact that he plays the game so differently than I do really lends to a great variety and level of tennis.”

Rafter On Rafter
“Life’s there to make the most of and that’s what I do.”

Broadcaster/Journalist Graeme Agars
“Sorry, mate” was a common refrain when Patrick Rafter was in action. With his net-rushing style of play, his kick serve was an important setup and if he sent up a ball toss he didn’t like, he wasn’t going to hit it. Hence the frequent apologies to his opponent.

Rafter was an intriguing combination of nice guy Aussie and tough competitor who was hard to dislike, but also hard to beat. It wasn’t out of character for him to concede line calls to opponents, while at the same time not conceding an inch in a rally.

His game was all movement and hustle. As a player who sweated an enormous amount, he often looked like he’d been playing for three hours after just three games. He was one of the last of a dying breed of serve-and-volleyers and it wasn’t a surprise that some of his best matches came against fellow net rushers. He beat two of them in claiming back-to-back US Open victories in 1998 and 1999, first accounting for Greg Rusedski and then fellow Aussie Mark Philippoussis.

A troublesome shoulder cut short his career, but not before he had become one of the most popular players on Tour with his easy-going charm and go-for-broke style of play.