It’s break time for The Big Three.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic converting break points against first and second serves when winning and losing matches uncovers some revealing statistics into their stranglehold at the top of the tennis tree. The data set covers five seasons from 2015-2019.

Break Points Won vs. 1st Serves
The interesting first take here is how close the three players are for all the matches they played. Rafael Nadal slightly edged the other two, winning 38.02 per cent (576/1515) of break points against first serves, with both Djokovic and Federer close behind within one percentage point.

Surprisingly, it was Federer who led the trio with the highest percentage of break points won against first serves with all matches that he won, at 39.27 per cent (377/960). The commonly held view point is that both Nadal and Djokovic should eclipse the Swiss in all return categories, but it’s simply not so.

Nadal was the best performing player winning break points against first serves in the matches he lost, at 29.44 per cent (53/180). Overall, Nadal also had the least drop off between matches he won and matches he lost, at 9.74 percentage points (39.18% to 29.44%).

Break Points Won vs. 1st Serve (bold = leader)

Break Points Won vs. 2nd Serves
Nadal was also the best performer of the Big Three winning break points against second serves, at 58.35 per cent (573/982). Nadal also collected the honours with Matches Won, at 60.55 per cent (528/972), while Djokovic had the highest metrics when losing the match, at 47.37 per cent (36/76).

Djokovic also had the least drop off between the win percentages against first and second serves at break point, falling just 11.42 percentage points (58.79% to 47.37%).

Break Points Won vs. 2nd Serve (bold = leader)

There are many ways to compare the performance of the Big Three to find out where they craft their small advantages as they constantly chase the biggest prizes in our sport. Performance around break points is as important as any stat they produce to determine if they are continuing to hold the silverware on any given Sunday.

Gael Monfils extended his winning streak to seven matches on Friday night at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament with a place in the semi-finals. The third seed and defending champion had to work hard to beat Briton Daniel Evans 7-6(5), 6-2 in one hour and 52 minutes at the Rotterdam Ahoy.

Evans gained the first break with a forehand drive volley winner for a 5-4 lead, but then struggled to make a first serve. Monfils immediately bounced back and led 4/1 in the tie-break, before Evans won four straight points. The match swung in Monfils’ favour at 5/5, when a net-rushing Evans left a backhand return that dropped in.

Monfils, No. 9 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, who came within one point of a 5-0 lead in the second set, closed out play with his eighth ace. It was his 11th victory in 13 matches this year, with the Frenchman winning his third Open Sud de France trophy last week (d. Pospisil).

Don’t try this at home!

Vintage, @Gael_Monfils ?

?: @TennisTV | @abnamrowtt pic.twitter.com/CVXPoiJenJ

— ATP Tour (@atptour) February 14, 2020

He will next play Serbian Filip Krajinovic, who upset seventh-seeded Russian Andrey Rublev 7-6(2), 6-4. Krajinovic hasn’t dropped a set this week and continues to excel indoors, having won 14 of his past 18 indoor matches dating back to last October. Monfils leads their ATP Head2Head series 2-0 and defeated the Serbian last week in the Montpellier semi-finals.

Krajinovic and Rublev traded service holds throughout the first set to force a tie-break, which saw the Serbian raise his level and win six consecutive points to take the early lead. He then broke Rublev in the opening game of the second set, but the Russian eventually evened the score to 4-4 by breaking his opponent with an aggressive forehand winner.

Krajinovic remained calm and broke right back in the next game with a forehand passing shot on the stretch. He served out the match on his first try to advance in one hour and 31 minutes, finishing the day with 27 winner to 25 unforced errors.

That reaction ?

?? @filipkrajinovic is into the @abnamrowtt semi-finals, upsetting Rublev 7-6 6-4 in Rotterdam!

?: @TennisTV pic.twitter.com/eVN18VXa5W

— ATP Tour (@atptour) February 14, 2020

Rublev dropped to 13-2 in 2020. The 22-year-old opened his season with back-to-back titles last month in Doha (d. Moutet) and Adelaide (d. Harris).

Felix Auger-Aliassime didn’t produce his best tennis on Friday, but found a way to win and reach the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament semi-finals.

The 19-year-old Canadian saved one set point in the second set tie-break en route to beating Aljaz Bedene 6-4, 7-6(6) over one hour and 51 minutes. He will next play Pablo Carreno Busta, who saved two match points in a thrilling victory over Jannik Sinner.

“He didn’t give me a lot, but I was clutch in the first set to break him at 5-4,” said Auger-Aliassime. “Outside of that he didn’t give me much. We know he can beat some good players, including this week and throughout his career. You know you’ve got to earn it, but you’ll get your chances – and I did.

“In the second set, I was a little bit frustrated with myself how he came back and I gave away too many free points. I felt like he was playing better and better, and I had to accept the challenge. The tie-break could have gone so many ways, but I am happy with the way I fought.”

Auger-Aliassime, who hit 22 winners, led by a set and 3-0 before Bedene recovered and held a set point at 6/5 in the tie-break. Auger-Aliassime, who saved the set point with a forehand approach off a big serve down the middle, becomes the first Canadian into the Rotterdam semi-finals since Milos Raonic in 2015 (l. to Wawrinka).

World No. 21 Auger-Aliassime struck two forehands winners to break Bedene and clinch the 47-minute opener. He won five straight games from 4-4 in the first set to 3-0 in the second set, including 21 of 30 points.

Later today, third seed and defending champion Gael Monfils takes on Daniel Evans, while seventh seed Andrey Rublev, who has a 13-1 record in 2020, meets Filip Krajinovic.

Pablo Carreno Busta saved two match points on Friday to become the first Spaniard to reach the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament for 11 years.

Carreno Busta fought hard in a 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(6) victory over Italian wild card Jannik Sinner in two hours and 45 minutes to follow in the footsteps of compatriot Rafael Nadal, who reached the 2009 final (l. to Murray) at the Rotterdam Ahoy.

Having had three match points at 5-4 in the deciding set, the World No. 30 found himself down 4/6 in the tie-break, but held his nerve to reach his first ATP Tour semi-final since October 2019 at the Stockholm Open (l. to Krajinovic). He will now challenge Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime or Aljaz Bedene of Slovenia on Saturday.

“It was very tough mentally to continue fighting on every point,” said Carreno Busta. “I know that I lost a lot of opportunities to close out the match, serving for it at 5-3 and then with three match points at 0/40 at 5-4. I didn’t play good points, I was playing too slowly and not aggressively. But after that, I continued fighting very well and saved two match points playing aggressively in the tie-break. It was a very important match to win.”

When asked about Sinner, Carreno Busta said: “I didn’t play at this level when I was 18. He is playing really well and for sure in this next year we’ll see him playing in the last round of a lot of tournaments.”

The first set looked destined for the tie-break, but Sinner came undone at 5-5 when he mis-timed a backhand long and forehand into the net to hand Carreno Busta the first break. The Spaniard then recovered from 0/30, when serving for the 49-minute opener, which finished with Sinner lunging for a backhand.

Sinner applied the pressure in the second set, with Carreno Busta saving four break points before overhitting a forehand long at 3-4. Sinner closed out the 48-minute set to love with Carreno Busta striking another forehand long.

Carreno Busta regrouped, but needed to save four break points in the opening game of the third set en route to a 3-0 advantage. Sinner’s heavy ball-striking had seen him drag a forehand wide to hand Carreno Busta the second game. Carreno Busta served for the match at 5-3, but deep returning from Sinner reaped a break. Sinner then dropped to 0/40 at 4-5, but worked his way back – courtesy of two groundstroke errors from Carreno Busta, and a massive forehand winner at 30/40.

Sinner struck a forehand into the net on his first match point at 6/4 in the tie-break and Carreno Busta hit a serve-volley winner at 5/6 to keep his hopes alive. The match ended with Sinner striking a backhand wide, his 21st of 48 total errors.

Jan-Lennard Struff and Henri Kontinen, who qualified for the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament main draw, booked their places in the semi-finals on Friday with a 5-7, 6-1, 10-6 victory over Britons Jamie Murray and Neal Skupski in 83 minutes. They will next play Rohan Bopanna and Denis Shapovalov. Kontinen partnered Jeremy Chardy to the 2019 Rotterdam title (d. Rojer/Tecau).

Second-seeded Frenchman and 2018 champions Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut take on Raven Klaasen and Oliver Marach in the other semi-final at the ATP 500-level tournament.

The lone doubles match of the day at the New York Open saw Dominic Inglot/Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi reach the semi-finals with a 4-6, 6-1, 10-5 comeback win against Roman Jebavy/Frederik Nielsen. Next up for them are Nicholas Monroe/Jack Sock.

Guido Pella didn’t have the luxury of easing his way into the Argentina Open. The second seed endured a marathon second-round battle with fellow Argentine Facundo Bagnis that exceeded three hours before advancing 7-6(2), 6-7(2), 6-4 on Thursday.

Both players traded comfortable service holds in the opening set to force a tie-break, where Pella won six consecutive points to grab the early advantage. Pella scored the first break of the night at 4-4 in the second set, but let slip his chance to serve out the match in the next game. Bagnis raised his level in the second-set tie-break and hit a forehand volley winner to send their clash into a decider.

Things are heating up in South America ?️

?: @TennisTV | @ArgentinaOpen pic.twitter.com/VJodYPzVqN

— ATP Tour (@atptour) February 14, 2020

It appeared an upset might be in the cards, but Pella regrouped by breaking serve with a forehand winner in the opening game of the final set. The brutal baseline rallies took their toll on Bagnis, who received a medical time out at 1-2 in the decider and made a tired forehand error two games later to give the second seed an insurance break.

Bagnis, No. 134 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, made a valiant effort to close the gap. He recovered one of the breaks at 1-4 and bravely saved two match points on his serve at 3-5, but Pella ended the match with an ace after three hours and 12 minutes.

Pella will have another all-Argentine battle in the quarter-finals when he faces Juan Ignacio Londero. The 26-year-old delighted the home crowd by rallying for a 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-1 upset against sixth-seeded Serbian Laslo Djere. Londero thrives on home soil, having defeated Pella last year to capture his maiden ATP Tour crown in Cordoba.

Uruguayan Pablo Cuevas continued his dominance over Albert Ramos-Vinolas by defeating the seventh-seeded Spaniard 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Cuevas improved to 8-1 in their ATP Head2Head series and has won their past seven matches. He awaits the winner of the all-Argentine battle between top seed Diego Schwartzman and Federico Delbonis.

Reilly Opelka put on a serving masterclass in last year’s New York Open, firing 156 aces throughout the week to secure his maiden ATP Tour title. The third-seeded American appears primed for another big serving display this year, landing 20 aces on Thursday to defeat Yoshihito Nishioka 6-4, 6-4.

The 22-year-old grabbed the lone break in each set to reach the quarter-finals after 76 minutes. Opelka picked up his first win of the season after suffering tight first-round defeats in Adelaide and the Australian Open.

Read More: Opelka Talks Fashion & New York State Of Mind

Next up for the defending champion is qualifier Jason Jung, who continued his inspired tennis at this event to upset seventh-seeded Brit Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-4. Both of Jung’s ATP Tour quarter-finals, and four of his six ATP Tour main draw wins, have come in New York.

The 30-year-old from Chinese Taipei also showed the benefits of his grueling off-season. Jung effortlessly tracked down heavy shots from Norrie throughout the match that would be winners against many players. 

“I felt like my legs let me down a few times in big matches last year that could have had a greater impact on my year-end [FedEx ATP] Ranking,” Jung said. “I could still run and fight, but though the head was willing, the body often was often not. Sometimes, I could feel my legs getting heavy and it probably affected my shot selection, and not for the better.”

Eighth seed Kyle Edmund avoided having the Brits go 0-2 in the day session by battling past German Dominik Koepfer 6-2, 6-4. Edmund converted four of seven break points and dictated the tempo in most of their baseline rallies.

Awaiting him in the last eight is South Korean Soonwoo Kwon, who upset second-seeded Canadian Milos Raonic on Wednesday.

Jason Jung is the type of player that nobody wants to face. Certainly not at the New York Open, where he’s through to the quarter-finals for the second straight year.

Blessed with cheetah-like speed, the 30-year-old from Chinese Taipei tracks down every ball and makes you play one more shot than you would like to. He also keeps his unforced error count low, so if his opponent hopes to win the point in a timely manner, he will have to paint the lines.

Most of the time, Jung is punching above his weight class. But while height and weight can be measured, there is no instrument that can measure a man’s grit. Jung’s nickname on Tour is “The Chisel” due to his ability to file harder-hitting opponents down to size.

He brings a hard-hat mentality to every match and is ready to battle for as long as it takes. Although he’d like to get home early from the office on some days, Jung recognises that his matches more often resemble marathons than sprints.

Jung enters every match with a classic three-prong strategy. He uses his physical conditioning to saw off his opponent’s legs by extending points with good defence. Jung also attempts to win the mental battle with good tactics and disciplined shot selection. He prefers to play medium-risk tennis and bait his opponent into going for high-risk winners. Jung then wants to break his opponent’s spirit with intense hustle and persistence.

But as last season came to an end, Jung assessed his game and acknowledged that his fitness wasn’t at the level that his taxing playing style requires.

“I felt like my legs let me down a few times in big matches last year that could have had a greater impact on my year-end [FedEx ATP] Ranking,” Jung admitted. “I could still run and fight, but though the head was willing, the body often was not. Sometimes, I could feel my legs getting heavy and it probably affected my shot selection, and not for the better.”

Jung took action and consulted strength and conditioning experts from California to Cambodia. By the end of December, he had six weeks of endless leg squats, calf raises and 400-metre sprints under his belt. But while improved leg strength would certainly help his performance, it was another body part that was causing the most problems: his head.

The baseliner suffered from a lack of faith in his game that haunted him throughout last season. His late-night analysis of tough losses eventually went from constructive to critical. Without realising it, self-doubt started to creep into his head and chipped away at his confidence.

Ironically, it was another tough loss last month that made Jung realise he had turned a corner mentally. After falling in straight sets to Christopher Eubanks at an ATP Challenger Tour event in Newport Beach, his hard work in the off-season allowed him to quickly digest the defeat and move on.

“This was the first time that I lost a set 7-6 or 7-5 and had peace afterwards,”Jung said. “I was disappointed to not get the result that I wanted, but I gave my best and did all that I could to win the match. I know that I could not have prepared better during the off-season.

”I realised that every time I lose a close set or match, it does not have to be my fault. Sometimes my opponent just played some great shots. I know that I did everything in my control to put myself in a winning position. I know it sounds strange, but finally, I can live with that.”

Sometimes, the hardest thing for men like Jung is learning how to not blame themselves when things go wrong in a tennis match. Once that lesson is learned, then they are free to play their best tennis.

Jung is doing exactly that this week in New York.

South Korean Soonwoo Kwon earned one of the biggest wins of his career on Wednesday evening at the New York Open, battling past former World No. 3 Milos Raonic in three tight sets.

“I had experience against Khachanov and good players, so I was a little bit nervous,” Kwon said about facing Raonic. “But I got many experiences from last year and this year, so it was good. I’m really happy for that.”

Little did the Long Island crowd know how much it took — literally and figuratively — to get there.

First, the literal: Kwon lost last Friday in the quarter-finals of the Tata Open Maharashtra more than 12,000 kilometres away. It took the 22-year-old 30 hours to make the journey to New York via Seoul, South Korea.

“I keep thinking positive. I’m still young, so the time difference doesn’t matter, 30 hours flight,” Kwon said, cracking a laugh. “Yesterday I played a little bit tired against [Go] Soeda, but finally I won, which gave me more confidence.”

Kwon was in control of his first-round match against Soeda, leading by a set and a break. But he remained calm, and triumphed in a deciding set against the Japanese. Kwon also had an opportunity to close out Raonic in straight sets. Once again, instead of getting overly frustrated, he reset, maintained his composure and ousted the second seed.

“Two years ago he always rushed and and easily got angry on court,” said Kyu Tae Im, Kwon’s coach. “But I didn’t push him that much. I was just trying to listen to him about it, then gave him time to change his mind.”

Raonic crushed 33 aces from 96 service points. So more than one third of the Canadian’s service points resulted in a ball whizzing by the South Korean.

“Before the match we made plan for when he returns, because he has a really good serve,” Im said. “Doesn’t matter [if he hits] 30 aces, 40 aces.”

Im, who watched how Djokovic played Raonic at the Australian Open, wanted Kwon to stick to the game plan: make a lot of his first serves and to work the point from the baseline to try to tire out Raonic so that the Canadian would make fewer first serves. This way, the longer the match went on, the better Kwon’s chances to work his way into return points. Then, he would methodically use his forehand to earn a short ball and move into net to finish off points.

“Kwon is a really smart boy. When we make a plan before the match, he uses all of things during the match. Win or lose, it doesn’t matter,” Im said. “I think this shows big trust in each other.”

One year ago, Kwon was No. 235 in the FedEx ATP Rankings. The first week of March, he won his first ATP Challenger Tour title in Yokohama, Japan. Then he began working with Im, and he has been on the rise ever since. Kwon has earned his first eight ATP Tour wins in the past seven months, defeating the likes of former Top 10 players Richard Gasquet and Lucas Pouille.

Kwon has also pushed seeded players Karen Khachanov and Nikoloz Basilashvili at last year’s Wimbledon and this year’s Australian Open, respectively. So although he didn’t break through in those moments, he was increasingly gaining confidence.

“He had a good talent and potential, but nobody else gave confidence to him,” Im said of when they started their relationship. “They just spoke to him about his weak points. For me, I tried to keep talking with him about his tennis and how he has good groundstrokes, especially being aggressive his forehand. So I tried to, in practice, use his forehand a lot, and also mentally for him to keep staying calm, too.

“When he practises on the tennis court he is always trying to focus on his exercise and using all his energy on court. I think that is his biggest weapon.”

The World No. 84 is putting himself in winning positions. And with confidence, a strong baseline game and a willingness to move forward, Kwon is finding ways to take advantage of those situations.

“It wasn’t that I played poorly,” Raonic said. “I thought he played really well.”

Kwon is into his third ATP Tour quarter-final, and his upset of Raonic gives him an opportunity to face eighth seed Kyle Edmund for a spot in his first tour-level semi-final.