Novak Djokovic will return to No. 1 in the FedEx ATP Rankings on Monday should he lift a record-extending eighth trophy at the Australian Open.

The prospect of a change next week at the summit of men’s professional tennis came about on Wednesday after current World No. 1 Rafael Nadal lost to Dominic Thiem 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) in the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park.

Should Djokovic first beat long-time rival Roger Federer, a six-time former titlist at the season’s first major, on Thursday, and then Thiem or seventh seed Alexander Zverev in Sunday’s final, the Serbian star will begin his fifth stint — and 276th week — in the top spot on 3 February.

Djokovic could then strengthen his hold with just 135 points to defend at March’s two ATP Masters 1000 events: the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells (90 points) and the Miami Open presented by Itau (45).

Djokovic, who relinquished the No. 1 ranking to Nadal on 4 November last year, is third in the list of most weeks at No. 1, behind only Pete Sampras (286 weeks) and record-holder Federer (310 weeks). With an unbroken run in the top spot, starting on Monday, Djokovic would surpass six-time year-end No. 1 Sampras’ tally on 20 April and break Federer’s mark on 5 October 2020.

Dominic Thiem is one set away from his maiden Australian Open semi-final, having claimed two tie-break sets to lead Rafael Nadal 7-6(3), 7-6(4) at Rod Laver Arena on Wednesday evening.

The winner will face Alexander Zverev for a spot in the championship match. The German defeated Stan Wawrinka 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 to reach his maiden Grand Slam semi-final. Nadal (5-1) and Thiem (6-2) both own ATP Head2Head leads against the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals champion.

With both players attempting to take control of the centre of the court in baseline battles, it was Nadal who made the first breakthrough at 4-3. The Spaniard broke to love with a pinpoint backhand lob to serve for the first set. But Thiem was undeterred by his unsuccessful net approach, moving forward on multiple occasions in the following game to save set point and break with a forehand return winner.

In the tie-break, Nadal attempted to dictate rallies with his forehand before moving to the net to finish points. But Thiem had all the answers, rallying from 0/2 down with two forehand passing shots to earn three set points. The Austrian converted his first opportunity, ripping a forehand winner up the line to take the opener after 67 minutes.

In the second set, Nadal hit his targets with two passing shots and benefitted from Thiem double faults to earn his second love service break for a 3-2 lead. Three games later, a similar sequence occurred. On this occasion, it was Thiem who found a way past Nadal at the net and clinched the break for 4-4 after a double fault from his opponent.

Nadal increased his forehand aggression to save set point at 5-6 and took the match to a second tie-break with a cross court backhand winner. But Thiem continued to find success, striking a dipping forehand passing shot and moving up the court to establish a 4/0 advantage. Despite Nadal charging back to 4/4, Thiem claimed three straight points with his forehand to move one set from victory.

Nadal leads Thiem 9-4 in their ATP Head2Head series, which includes victories in the past two Roland Garros finals. Thiem is aiming to defeat the World No. 1 for the fifth consecutive year, following clay-court victories from 2016 to 2019.

Alexander Zverev is two sets away from completing an inspired comeback to reach his first Grand Slam semi-final. The seventh seed shook off a slow start against 2014 champion and No. 15 seed Stan Wawrinka in their Australian Open quarter-final clash on Wednesday, raising his game to move ahead 1-6, 6-3, 6-4.

The winner of this match will face top-seeded Spaniard Rafael Nadal or fifth-seeded Austrian Dominic Thiem. Although Zverev trails Nadal 1-5 in their ATPHead2Head rivalry, he won their most recent clash in last year’s Nitto ATP Finals. He’s 2-6 against Thiem in their series, with the Austrian prevailing two months ago in the semi-finals of the Nitto ATP Finals.

Although Wawrinka trails Nadal 3-19 in their rivalry, one of those wins came in the 2014 Australian Open final. The Swiss leads Thiem 3-1 in their series, but they haven’t faced each other in three years.

Zverev started slowly and struggled to find the range on his shots. The German missed a half-volley to lose his opening service game, then shanked a forehand into the stands two games later to trail by a double break.

Meanwhile, Wawrinka came out in peak form. Opening up on his backhand and leaning into his forehand, he cracked clean winners from all parts of the court and dominated the baseline exchanges. The Swiss raced through the first five games and dropped just three points on serve (16/19) en route to taking the opening set.

Zverev adjusted his tactics in the second set and began playing high-risk tennis in a bid to keep the points short. He also beefed up his first-serve percentage from 61 per cent in the first set to 90 per cent in the second set, allowing him to convincingly cruise through his service games.

The added pressure resulted in Wawrinka’s normally reliable forehand breaking down. With his unforced error count in the second set nearly triple that of the first set (11 to 4), his mistakes enabled Zverev to grab the lone break of the set at 4-3 and go on to level the match.

Both players traded early breaks to start the third set, but it was Zverev who proved to be steadier in rallies as Wawrinka continued to blow hot and cold. The seventh seed broke once more at 2-2 after a grueling 20-shot rally saw the Swiss hit a slice backhand into the net.

As Wawrinka’s confidence in his forehand continued to diminish, he stopped stepping into it and appeared uncertain with his footing when attacking short balls. The 2014 champion attempted to work around the problem and bravely saved two set points at 5-3, eventually holding serve with a trademark backhand winner. But the deficit was too much to overcome and Zverev comfortably held in the next game for a commanding advantage.

More to come…