Former World No. 1 Yevgeny Kafelnikov first saw Daniil Medvedev at the VTB Kremlin Cup in Moscow three years ago. At the time, all he knew was that Medvedev had left Russia to train in France.

“He was struggling with finding a good coach and a good place to practise,” Kafelnikov told ATPTour.com. “He made the right choice to move away and practise somewhere else.”

Now, Medvedev is into his first Grand Slam final at the US Open. The 23-year-old will face Rafael Nadal on Sunday in Arthur Ashe Stadium for his first major trophy.

Before the tournament, the Russian’s best Slam run was a fourth-round appearance at this year’s Australian Open. But Medvedev is in position to become the first man from his country to win a major championship since Marat Safin did so in Melbourne in 2005.

“It looks like he got mature and he understands that he needs to take every opportunity that tennis has presented him,” Kafelnikov said. “I hope he will have many more finals to come, but I want him to approach the match tomorrow like he perhaps will never have that chance again, leave everything on the court. [I want him to feel] that after the match he will have no regrets with what he’s done in that match. That’s how I want him to play.”

Kafelnikov doesn’t want Medvedev to compete against Nadal as if he has nothing to lose, even if this is Nadal’s 27th Slam final and the Russian’s first.

“If you want to just go and have fun on the court, it’s not going to cut it. You’re not going to win against Rafa,” Kafelnikov said. “You need to go on the court with the mindset, ‘Okay, I’ve got a game plan. I need to stick to that game plan and execute it.’”

Medvedev arrives in Sunday’s final with the most wins on the ATP Tour in 2019 (50) as well as the most victories on hard courts (37).

“Of course tomorrow we all understand that Rafa is a huge favourite to win the title. But I hope that Daniil will put up a good fight,” Kafelnikov said. “It all depends how he’s going to serve. I think his first-serve percentage will be the key to the match.”

In the first set of his semi-final against Grigor Dimitrov, Medvedev landed just 40 per cent of his first serves. That nearly cost him, but the Russian edged into the lead by taking a tie-break, eventually triumphing in straight sets.

“His first-serve percentage was about 40 and if you want to beat Nadal, even on that surface, you need to put a better percentage [to have a chance], 60 per cent first-serve percentage,” Kafelnikov said. “Daniil’s game has been that the longer the rally goes, the better chance that Daniil has to win the point. Tomorrow is going to be the opposite. The longer the rallies go, Nadal will destroy him. So Daniil needs to shorten up the points, come into net as much as he can. It’s completely opposite of his game, I know, but that’s the only chance he can beat Nadal tomorrow.”

Medvedev is part of a rising generation of Russian stars — including Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev — all of whom have competed in the Next Gen ATP Finals. But Kafelnikov admits that technique-wise, Medvedev is not the cleanest of the group.

“His fundamentals are not so fluid like Rublev and some other talented players, like Wawrinka, for example,” Kafelnikov said. “But the main thing he’s got is good will, and that’s the most important thing. He’s taken the maximum out of his potential. That’s a sign of a very intelligent and solid player.”

Earlier in this tournament, Medvedev admitted to dealing with an issue with his quadriceps. In his first major quarter-final, he faced a stiff test against three-time Slam winner Stan Wawrinka. Then, the Russian played a former Nitto ATP Finals champion in Dimitrov. But Medvedev has kept up his impressive run, moving to 20-2 during this North American summer hard-court swing.

“He continued winning matches. We have seen the signs where he was struggling health-wise… he was struggling in the quarter-finals and he toughed it out,” Kafelnikov said. “He’s doing what he’s supposed to do, and I’m quite pleased to see it from Daniil.”

This is also an important moment for Russian tennis, as it’s been more than a decade since Safin claimed glory at the Australian Open. In his first Grand Slam final, Kafelnikov became the first Russian man to earn major glory at 1996 Roland Garros.

“I approached that final like I would never have that opportunity ever again. The same thing might happen to Daniil. I hope not. I hope he’s going to have many more Grand Slam finals to come,” Kafelnikov said. “I just don’t want him to go tomorrow on the court and feel like, ‘Ooh, I have Rafa on the other side and I’ve got no chance to win.’”

Kafelnikov says that there’s plenty of excitement in Russia, noting that Channel One, one of the biggest stations in the country, will carry the match. Kafelnikov points to Karen Khachanov cracking the Top 10 this year and Andrey Rublev beating Roger Federer in Cincinnati and then Stefanos Tsitsipas in New York.

“It was meant to happen sooner rather than later. We’re quite lucky that Daniil has done it sooner,” Kafelnikov said of the 23-year-old making a major final. “The main thing is that it’s a good rivalry now in Russian men’s tennis between Rublev, Khachanov and Medvedev. It seems to me they’re pushing one another, and that’s the reason why Daniil has been so successful over the past six weeks in the U.S.

“It’s a very healthy rivalry. They’re good friends off the court and rivals on the court… here in Russia we are very lucky to have those three guys for hopefully the next 10 years or so, [and I hope] that they can do some damage in men’s tennis.”

First, World No. 1 Novak Djokovic retired during the third set of his fourth-round match. Then, five-time champion Roger Federer fell in the quarter-finals. Suddenly, second seed Rafael Nadal was the favourite to win the US Open.

But according to ESPN analyst and former World No. 4 Brad Gilbert, Nadal never getting ahead of himself is what has put him on the doorstep of a 19th Grand Slam title, and what makes him the favourite on Sunday against first-time major finalist Daniil Medvedev.

“Rafa is a huge favourite, but the greatness of Rafa is that he doesn’t take that for granted,” Gilbert told ATPTour.com. “Even in the quarters, guys are saying this and that. The beauty of him is he’s thinking about the first game, first point tomorrow and going from there.”

Nadal played Medvedev for the first time one month ago in the final of the Coupe Rogers. It was the Russian’s first ATP Masters 1000 final, and the legendary lefty took full advantage in a 6-3, 6-0 triumph.

“I think he did a great job in Canada of breaking down Medvedev’s forehand. The guy doesn’t miss forehands, but Rafa’s ball is different. It’s heavy, it’s a higher spin. He broke down [Matteo] Berrettini’s backhand big time in the semis. Big time,” Gilbert said. “The greatest thing about Rafa is that he’s an amazing tactician. Pulled it out out of nowhere against [Diego] Schwartzman to win the first set, a high looping shot. Did it a couple times in a row to win the second set. He waits for the right moment sometimes to use tactics. That’s the great thing about him, and he’s just relentless… sometimes you forget if he’s 5-0 up or 5-0 down. He’s just working hard for the next point.”

Nadal has done a tremendous job of holding his serve throughout the fortnight, winning all but six of his service games at a rate of 92 per cent (67/73). None of the seven players who had a better winning percentage in their service games this tournament advanced past the third round.

“[He just has to] continue to execute like he’s been doing. He’s been doing an amazing job all tournament being aggressive off of his serve. He hasn’t really not been aggressive on his serve this entire tournament,” Gilbert said. “And he’s been really so strong on first serve, first shot, taking care of serve.”

Analysing Medvedev’s Path To Victory
Medvedev is the fifth seed, and he will climb to a career-high No. 4 in the ATP Rankings on Monday. Although he won just three games against Nadal in Montreal, the 23-year-old showed his mental resilience by bouncing back to win his maiden Masters 1000 crown in Cincinnati at the Western & Southern Open. So Medvedev, who leads the ATP Tour with 50 wins this year, is clearly in top form.

“I think the key for him to win, I’ll say [it has to be] a lot like the first set of Berrettini. Berrettini got to a breaker when it didn’t look like there would be any chance. He saved all six break points, didn’t have one look to break serve, but yet found his way to a breaker and had two set points,” Gilbert said. “Scoreboard pressure in the first set will be crucial, and exactly like what Anderson needed in the final a couple years ago and didn’t get it. I think that’s absolutely crucial for Medvedev, to get scoreboard pressure in the first set.”

Against Grigor Dimitrov in the semi-finals, Medvedev was fairly content to counterpunch and fend off the Bulgarian’s offence. That eventually wore down the first-time US Open semi-finalist. But in the Cincinnati semis against Djokovic, Medvedev was rolled in the first set when he did not come out firing.

“He looked a little bit physically spent and the next thing you know he was like, ‘What the hell, I’m not winning any points on my second serve’, and he started going two first serves and then started playing uber aggressive. It paid off,” Gilbert said of that Djokovic victory.. “Maybe something unpredictable [would work]. I’m not saying go two first serves again, but you never know. Unpredictability is one of his best qualities. He pulls back, and then he’s aggressive. But I don’t think he can get away with pulling back against Rafa.

“It’s a beautiful thing to watch, but pulling back against Rafa and Fed, who are so dominant in the middle of the court, is probably one of the most difficult things to do.”

Medvedev does not have a single weapon that sets him apart on the ATP Tour. He has proven his ability to deliver powerful and accurate serves, go backhand to backhand in rallies with Djokovic, and play defence you would expect from a player a foot shorter than him. Gilbert thinks he’s among the Top 3 movers in the world today, and the greatest mover in the sport’s history 6’6” and above. But the analyst also believes the Russian has an intangible that stands out.

“The most amazing and impressive thing about Medvedev, it reminds me so much of Andy Murray when I was coaching him in 2006. Everybody would say, ‘How does this guy win?’ Nothing adds up. You look at his stats sometimes and he has more unforced errors than winners, double faults,” Gilbert said. “He has a great ability to pull back a lot in sets, where he wins a lot of points when he doesn’t really do a lot and then he’ll play sneaky aggressive when he has to. Most impressively, he finds a way to win.”

And although Gilbert was clear in declaring Nadal the favourite, giving Medvedev just a 17.17 per cent chance to win, he does not think Medvedev is walking on the court thinking of anything but finding a way to lift the trophy.

“He’s not going out on the court and thinking, ‘I have nothing to lose. No, I want to win. How am I going to figure out a game plan to put myself in a position [to win],’” Gilbert said. “It’s two guys enter, one guy leaves. You have to think about from the coach, from the player, it doesn’t matter what people say, ‘underdog’. The only thing that matters is the dimensions of the court and what you can do to make progress.

“It’s just about winning one game at a time and executing a game plan against one person. In these draws, you don’t need to beat 127 other guys. You’ve just got to beat somebody every other day. Keep it simple, think about your game plan and Xs and Os.”

Second-seeded Spaniard Rafael Nadal and fifth-seeded Russian Daniil Medvedev have been the most dominant players during the North American hard-court swing. They’ve also racked up more wins than any other players on Tour this year. Fittingly, they have set themselves for a championship clash at the US Open when they meet in Sunday’s final.

Their showdown in Arthur Ashe Stadium is a rematch of last month’s Coupe Rogers final, which saw Nadal drop just three games for his fifth title in Canada. Rather than intimidate the Russian, the experience facing Nadal has only energised him for his first Grand Slam final.

“Talking about Rafa, it’s tough to find words,” Medvedev said. “He’s one of the greatest champions in the history of our sport. He’s just a machine, a beast on the court. The energy he’s showing is just amazing. To play him in your first Grand Slam final should be… an amazing thing to live.”

Many tennis fans cited Medvedev as the biggest chance outside the Big 3 to take the title, but the 23-year-old downplayed his chances and pointed out that he hadn’t reached a Grand Slam quarter-final. But in his match-by-match approach, Medvedev improved his record to 20-2 during the North American hard-court season by reaching the US Open final.

Medvedev’s magical run includes his first Masters 1000 title at the Western & Southern Open (d. Goffin), in addition to finishing runner-up in Montreal (l. to Nadal) and at the Citi Open (l. to Kyrgios). He is the only player on Tour to achieve 50 match victories this season.

Most Wins On ATP Tour In 2019 (Open Era)

But there’s been little time for Medvedev to ponder his breakthrough because he’s been so busy winning. He seeks to cap off his summer stateside by becoming only the fifth player since 2009 to capture his maiden Grand Slam title.

Grand Slam Final Breakthroughs Since 2009

”Of course, deep inside of me, I understand that what I’ve done these four weeks is amazing, even comparing to what I’ve done before,” Medvedev said. “I don’t want to stop. I will always work to be better. I will try to do my best every day.”

Although Medvedev’s low-bouncing, off-speed shots have frustrated players throughout the year, they seemed to sit up in Nadal’s strike zone in Montreal. But while Nadal has gained plenty of free points on his serve this fortnight, the Russian’s return is one of his greatest strengths and he won’t allow the Spaniard as many free points.

The fifth seed will need to keep the points short and avoid engaging Nadal in prolonged baseline rallies. Medvedev will also need to play his lethal cross-court backhand into the Spaniard’s forehand. Although Nadal is stronger on that side, it will expose his backhand wing and give the Russian more opportunities to attack.

Nadal has been thriving in Arthur Ashe Stadium from the first ball this fortnight, feeding off the energy of the New York crowd and channeling it into his explosive baseline game. The Spaniard already arrived on a high after prevailing in Montreal, but he has looked nearly flawless in his quarter-final and semi-final victories over Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini.

Who will win the latest @FedEx ATP HeadHead meeting between these players?#USOpen

— ATP Tour (@ATP_Tour) September 7, 2019

“I think at the beginning of my career have been some tough moments here, losing matches. But since a long time ago, every time that I came here I felt comfortable. I felt very competitive and fighting for the big things,” Nadal said. “I said every single day, but I can repeat: I feel comfortable here, I like the atmosphere, I like the crowd. I feel a big energy when I am playing in this Arthur Ashe Stadium.

“When I arrived here, my goal was to produce a chance to compete for the big thing again. Here I am.”

Nadal will want to consider adding even more spin to his shots against Medvedev. Players who hit flat shots don’t like hitting balls above their shoulder, but the Russian has the advantage of being 6’6”. A high ball for most players falls into Medvedev’s strike zone, so the Spaniard will need to add further height in order to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm.

It will also be crucial for Nadal to get off to a fast start. Once he’s come within a set of victory this fortnight, his opponents have appeared resigned to an inevitable defeat and the second seed sprinted to the finish line. Given the volume of matches that Medvedev has played recently, the prospect of rallying from two sets down may appear insurmountable.

After 18 years on tour, Nadal shows no signs of slowing down. He’s one match away from securing his fifth Grand Slam title in his 30s, a feat which would be unprecedented in the Open Era.

30 & Over Grand Slam Title Leaders (Open Era)

A victory over Medvedev would also give Nadal his 19th Grand Slam title, putting him one shy of all-time leader Federer (20). But regardless of the end result on Sunday, Nadal said he will leave New York with his head high and proud of his efforts.

“Of course, I would love to be the one who wins the most Grand Slams, but I’ll still sleep very well without being the one who has the most Grand Slams,” Nadal said. “I am happy about my career. I am very happy about what I’m doing. I’m going to keep working hard to try to produce chances. Sunday is just one more chance.

“You cannot be frustrated or thinking all day about what your neighbor has. You have to be happy with yourself. You have to do it your way.”

A CLOSER LOOK AT NADAL vs. MEDVEDEV (Stats Through US Open SFs)

 Statistics courtesy: Leo Levin/SMT

Rafael Nadal seeks his fourth US Open title when he meets Russian Daniil Medvedev in Sunday’s final. The Spaniard has been in blistering form this fortnight, dropping just one set en route to his fifth final in New York.

Nadal is on a 10-match winning streak, having also prevailed over Medvedev in last month’s Coupe Rogers final.

Should he prevail on Sunday, Nadal will have his history on his side as he looks to finish the year at No. 1 in the ATP Rankings. The Spaniard was year-end No. 1 in all three years that he won the US Open. Nadal currently leads Djokovic by 1,160 points in the ATP Race to London and would add another 800 points if he takes the title. 

But how does his current form compare to his previous US Open titles? ATPTour.com looks back at the previous three times that Nadal stood in the winner’s circle at the final Grand Slam of the year.

2010 US Open – Nadal d. Djokovic 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.

The US Open had remained the missing piece of Rafael Nadal’s career Grand Slam puzzle. Although he arrived in New York as one of the clear favourites for the title after prevailing in Roland Garros and Wimbledon, he hadn’t won a hard-court title since the 2018 BNP Paribas Open. Nadal also endured two losses leading in. He fell in straight-sets defeat to Andy Murray in the Rogers Cup semi-finals and had a surprising quarter-final loss to Marcos Baghdatis at the Western & Southern Open.

But Nadal was in full flight once the tournament started. He powered into the final without dropping a set, including convincing wins over Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny, to book a championship showdown with Novak Djokovic. The Serbian had prevailed in an epic five-set semi-final with Roger Federer.

Nadal was the underdog heading into the match with Djokovic. They had never played a Grand Slam match on hard courts before, but Djokovic led 7-3 on hard courts in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry and won their past three matches on the surfaces.

Rain pushed the start of their Sunday final to Monday and showers forced them off the court at 4-4 in the second set. Although Djokovic quickly levelled the match when play resumed, Nadal grabbed an early break in the third set and never looked back. The Spaniard fell to the ground and sobbed in his hands after a forehand sent wide from Djokovic made him the seventh man to win all four Grand Slams.

”This is more than I ever dreamed,” Nadal said. “It is unbelievable to have this US Open trophy.”

2013 US Open – Nadal d. Djokovic 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

Nadal proved to be the dominant force throughout the North American hard-court swing. He defeated Djokovic en route to prevailing in Montreal (d. Raonic) and followed up with a win over Federer on his path to the title in Cincinnati (d. Isner).

The Spaniard advanced to the US Open final with minimal fuss, only dropping one set in his fourth-round match against Philipp Kohlschreiber and powering through Richard Gasquet to reach the championship match. In nearly identical fashion to 2010, he faced Djokovic in the final after the Serbian prevailed in a grueling five-set encounter with Stan Wawrinka.

Nadal and Djokovic’s showdown started in sunlight and finished at night, featuring incredible rallies that brought the crowd to their feet on numerous occasions. There was even an epic 54-ball exchange that Djokovic came out on top in for a 4-2 lead in the second set.

But while Djokovic won that battle, Nadal won the war. Once the Spaniard sunk his teeth into the third set, he ran away with the remainder of the match. Nadal improved to 22-0 on hard courts and 60-3 overall in 2013, becoming the first player to win at least one Grand Slam title in nine consecutive seasons. He also became the third player to prevail in Canada, Cincinnati and the US Open in the same season, joining Patrick Rafter (1998) and Andy Roddick (2003).

“This is probably the most emotional one in my career,” Nadal said. “I know I had to be almost perfect to win. Nobody brings my game to the limit like Novak.”

2017 US Open – Nadal d. Anderson 6-3, 6-3, 6-4.

Nadal arrived to New York as the top seed once again, but there were questions about his ability to perform on hard courts. He hadn’t won a hard-court title since 2014 Doha and had lost his past eight hard-court finals. Nadal also endured surprising defeats in the 2017 North American hard-court swing to Denis Shapovalov (Montreal) and Nick Kyrgios (Cincinnati).

The Spaniard also got off to a slow start in several of his matches that fortnight, dropping the opening set in three of his first six rounds. But after losing the first set in his semi-final to Juan Martin del Potro, he found a new gear and dropped just five games the rest of the way.

Nadal was a heavy favourite in the final against first-time Grand Slam finalist Kevin Anderson of South Africa, owning a 4-0 record at the time in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry. The Spaniard never let Anderson into the match, losing only 15 points on serve and never facing a break point. He was also perfect (16/16) at the net, knocking off a backhand volley winner to secure his 16th Grand Slam title.

“I believed in the work, in the daily work all the time,” “Nadal said. I still believe in these things to improve, and I wake up every morning with the passion to go on court and to try to improve things. Probably that’s why I still have chances to compete in this sport and to do it well.”